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Old 11-01-2007, 08:56 AM   #1
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Does anyone believe that exxon quarterly income drop 10%?
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Old 11-01-2007, 09:37 AM   #2
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Yes

Look what has happened to the price of crude compared to the price of gasoline. The spread has narrowed, refining profits are down and costs are up

No shock here
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Old 11-01-2007, 09:42 AM   #3
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Old 11-01-2007, 11:30 AM   #4
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Does anyone believe that exxon quarterly income drop 10%?
Crude has risen sharply in Q3 but gas prices barely moved higher. That means refining profits were significantly squeezed.
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Old 11-01-2007, 12:52 PM   #5
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Interesting that the major pure-play refiners-VLO, TSO, and SUN held up pretty well today, in spite of Exxon's earnings. They were off, but not much. In the case of TSO, Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda has a bid in.

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Old 11-02-2007, 06:53 AM   #6
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When do you think gas prices will rise significantly with oil at $93+?
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Old 11-02-2007, 08:00 AM   #7
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Saluki and ziggy pointed out that the spread between oil and gasoline has narrowed, but what would cause this?

I would expect that the spread would reflect some reasonable profit margin, and pretty much float with the price of the underlying commodity. Of course, the refining process, and reserves play a role here - did something happen there that impacted the spread? Are refineries less constrained than they were before? Higher reserves now? Something else?

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Old 11-02-2007, 10:47 AM   #8
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Saluki and ziggy pointed out that the spread between oil and gasoline has narrowed, but what would cause this?

I would expect that the spread would reflect some reasonable profit margin, and pretty much float with the price of the underlying commodity. Of course, the refining process, and reserves play a role here - did something happen there that impacted the spread? Are refineries less constrained than they were before? Higher reserves now? Something else?

-ERD50
You can trace it back to inventories

One of the issues that has caused so much news in the oil markets is the reduction of inventories in refined gas. Instead of paying the higher prices of refiners many have just pulled the gas they need out of supply on hand to keep the downstream margins constant.
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Old 11-02-2007, 11:06 AM   #9
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Another thing keep the price at the pump down has been demand. Now that the summer season is over, demand for oil is lower. However, this is a temporary thing. If the high crude prices outlast the lower demand effect we will see pump prices increase (up 15 cents in the last three days around my location).
I also heard Exxon was not able to pull more oil out of the ground, so the higher price of crude did them no good as they couldn't capitalize on it.
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Old 11-02-2007, 11:33 AM   #10
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thanks saluki and Zathras, makes sense.

Not that anyone is going to be crying for Exxon, but it must be a bummer to see your product (crude oil) trading at a high price, and not be able to deliver any more of it than you could at the lower price.

Kinda like seeing one of your stocks go way up, and wishing you had bought more when it was low!

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Old 11-02-2007, 11:55 AM   #11
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Yup, it's the oil exporters who'll be sitting on a ton of cash. Here's an interesting blog post that wonders what they'll spend it on. (He estimates that the cash surplus will be bigger than China's.)

RGE - What oil curse?
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