Facebook IPO

[EvrClrx311]

The only IPO I've played recently was Tesla... I knew the media would be all over that because green energy and electric cars make for flashy headlines. Bought in at $17 in that morning, and sold at $28 the same afternoon ... despite making a quick 60%, just seeing what happened to the price on that opening day scared me away from IPOs... I could just have easily gotten in at $28 and sold at $17 the next day when it went back down.

I'll stick to my slow/boring methodical means for investing... chasing quick returns is too stressful

[obgyn65]

No.

Quote:

Originally Posted by explanade Anyone ever do an IPO?

[Brat]

My DD has done a couple from a VC chair. The fees of lawyers and the issuing house are significant.

The one bit of wisdom I gleaned from our conversations over the years is when you buy an IPO the executive to watch is the CFO. If the company is having problems that position is a hot potato that no one wants to hold at the end.

[NYEXPAT]

Interestingly enough the Fed recently disclosed one of the founders gave up his US citizenship in 2011 in order to minimize the exit tax on his 3.2 billion FB holdings.

[frayne]

A sucker is born every minute. Who said dat ?

[MichaelB]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NYEXPAT Interestingly enough the Fed recently disclosed one of the founders gave up his US citizenship in 2011 in order to minimize the exit tax on his 3.2 billion FB holdings.

That is a smart move on his part. He moved here as a child, went to private school and Harvard and somewhere along the line became a US citizen, was involved in a startup, got a share but not a role. He has no ties to the US and doesn't live here, so why stay?

[M Paquette]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB That is a smart move on his part. He moved here as a child, went to private school and Harvard and somewhere along the line became a US citizen, was involved in a startup, got a share but not a role. He has no ties to the US and doesn't live here, so why stay?

There's an additional motive. Eduardo Saverin recently moved to Singapore, and with FATCA, it's really hard for a US citizen to set up banking and investment accounts there. Local accounts have the advantage of untaxed capital gains under Singapore law.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...ion-rule-looms

Quote:

“I don’t open U.S. accounts, period,” said Su Shan Tan, head of private banking at Singapore-based DBS, Southeast Asia’s largest lender, who described regulatory attitudes toward U.S. clients as &ldquoraconian.”

[Dimsumkid]

Quote:

Originally Posted by explanade Offering price is $26-35 they say. .

Just got notification they amended the prospectus max offer price to $38. They expect the pricing range to be between $34 and $38 now.

[explanade]

Hmm, maybe the demand isn't that great.

[kcowan]

Yes let's raise the price to stimulate demand!

[Brat]

What is odd is that you want the price of the stock to go up after it goes public.

[EvrClrx311]

my guess is we'll see it swing wildly between $25-$40 on opening day... but by year end it'll settle in the $20-25 range...

if you're a gambler... this will be fun. Long term investors are risking a lot by putting anything more than "fun money" into FB

The price change up is FB insiders banking on people buying facebook stock just to own a piece of the iconic company, doesn't matter if its $30, $100 or $1,000 a share - they just want something on IPO day. They hope a sizable fraction of shares will end up in the hands of people who just wanted in on the action from the start, no matter the cost, and don't plan to sell anytime soon because its not an investment in their eyes... just a novelty

[Animorph]

But you only want it to go up 10% or so. You don't want to give away your shares by pricing them too low. GM did the same thing and it worked OK for them. Of course that didn't last long, but long enough to beat the 15 day Fidelity required IPO holding period.

[Running_Man]

If I had a chance to get shares of Facebook at the IPO price and had any speculative money at all, I would jump at the chance. While you can never know what will happen in a market like this the odds are I think it will be over $70 after the first day and I'd be willing to gamble some money on that myself

[Brat]

My daughter told me that FaceBook employees have been buying homes with FB shares as a part of the deal. Talk about a complex closing!

[clifp]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Running_Man If I had a chance to get shares of Facebook at the IPO price and had any speculative money at all, I would jump at the chance. While you can never know what will happen in a market like this the odds are I think it will be over $70 after the first day and I'd be willing to gamble some money on that myself

I wouldn't want to buy it on the first day, but at the IPO I think it would be a worthwhile gamble. I'd say there is an equal chance of it being $70 at the end 30 days or $15.

They are only going to be selling a small piece of the company and there is a lot of interest in the company. They are valuing it at $~100 per user and there is certainly no reason that Facebook couldn't have 2 billion in the next 5 years.

Of course by conventional metrics revenues, P/E cash flow it is very expensive and todays new that GM wouldn't be advertising on Facebook is very bad news. But only if you assume that GM's marketing department knows what they are doing.

[almost there]

Government Motors has no idea what they are doing.
That's how they got where they are today. }

My order is in for 500 @ 25.00. Just for fun. Will I get it?
Who cares? LOL LOL

[kcowan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brat My daughter told me that FaceBook employees have been buying homes with FB shares as a part of the deal. Talk about a complex closing!

That makes sense. RE is at all time lows. They can quickly convert their shares into something with intrinsic value. All they need to do is trade in their stock certificate:

[clifp]

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcowan That makes sense. RE is at all time lows. They can quickly convert their shares into something with intrinsic value. All they need to do is trade in their stock certificate:

That makes sense. Although I believe Silicon Valley real estate is doing very well and didn't get slammed to badly during the crisis. The house I sold in 99 is worth 70% more than when I sold it.

I figured out that dot com bubble was going to burst when my friend's 50 person B2B ecommerce company went public at at market cap that exceeded the value of all the real estate sold in Silicon Valley in the last year.

Even with a median house price of $2.3 million in Palo Alto, the Facebook valuation will be worth more than all of the real estate in Palo Alto plus several smaller cities combined.

[obgyn65]

I have never own a single share. Even if I was given some Facebook shares free, I still would not take them.... That sums it up for me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by almost there My order is in for 500 @ 25.00. Just for fun. Will I get it? Who cares? LOL LOL