Fermion's Biotech Investing (All Welcome)

[Fermion]

Personally, I am thinking of waiting to a price under $79

Yes, I think we should.

 

[wmc1000]

oops - i didn't have a buy order placed and it dropped to 78.86 momentarily

 

[Fermion]

Endocyte (ECYT) getting some activity today. Price jumped to $3.24 and volume is 2x average.

Would be great to wake up and give a double take to see $32.40 as the price.

 

[wmc1000]

bought 300 GILD at 78.88

 

[Fermion]

I didn't buy any Gilead today, although I probably should have. I put in a limit order for $78.50 but it never dipped that far.

Endocyte ended the day up 6% or so and volume of 400,000 shares vs average 120,000. There is value in the company that people are seeing (well, that and the fact that they still have more cash on hand than the current market cap).

 

[check6]

I have been trading EXAS for the last year. Makes a colon cancer test, Cologuard, using DNA. Took an unfair hit a year ago but has climbed out of that. Heavily shorted causing a $3 drop in the last few days. I have been buying more.

 

[Fermion]

I know nothing of EXAS except it is down 6% today. Probably a little risky for me, even though I do trade in ECYT which is even further from a phase 3 drug or a release. The advantage in ECYT is they have more cash per share than the current share price which gives you sort of a bottom. EXAS seems to have only a couple bucks in cash and a $18 share price.

I have not yet rebought Gilead even though it is 78.50 today. I have a buy order in for 500 $78.30 and could nudge it up but really in no hurry. The way it has been trading it might dip to $78.30 any time now.

I sold 2000 ECYT at 3.35 yesterday (amazed I got nearly the high) and now see it is on low volume at 3.20. Very tempted to buy back but that account has high commissions ($9.95...stupid Etrade).

 

[Fermion]

My buy order of 500 Gilead at 78.30 triggered, actually it went down to under $78 (always goes lower than you think it will).

Did not buy back Endocyte yet, I think I will wait again for $3.05 area. Bio getting battered again.

 

[Fermion]

Have a sell order in right now for the 500 Gilead at $79. Yes this would only be a $350 profit but my free trades are about to renew at Wells Fargo and I still have 28 left on the old year.

And hey, $350 is $350 right?

 

[Fermion]

And...it hit. $350 added to the penny collection.

Time to wait for Gilead to drop back to $78 again.

 

[wmc1000]

good for you Fermion

 

[Fermion]

good for you Fermion

Not really. Did you look just now a hour later? Gilead is at $79.50 and I left $250 on the table.

 

[Fermion]

Just bought back 500 shares of Gilead at $77.28

 

[check6]

I know nothing of EXAS except it is down 6% today. Probably a little risky for me, even though I do trade in ECYT which is even further from a phase 3 drug or a release. The advantage in ECYT is they have more cash per share than the current share price which gives you sort of a bottom. EXAS seems to have only a couple bucks in cash and a $18 share price.

I have not yet rebought Gilead even though it is 78.50 today. I have a buy order in for 500 $78.30 and could nudge it up but really in no hurry. The way it has been trading it might dip to $78.30 any time now.

EXAS bottomed out 9/29 at approx $17.60 and climb to $19.50 earlier today. Just for grins, had you invested that 500 x $78.30 and were lucky enough to buy EXAS at the low you would be up $4226.

Reason for the pop is that doctors who were the most frequent prescribers abruptly stopped ordering the test. After EXAS investigated the reason was that pressure was put on them (financial/insurance etc.) because it was not included in HEDIS. As of today it is confirmed that EXAS is included in HEDIS. The shorts were using this misinformation to drop the stock.

The Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set (HEDIS) is a tool used by more than 90 percent of America's health plans to measure performance on important dimensions of care and service.

"Should" be clear sailing from here. Fingers crossed.

 

[wmc1000]

picked up 500 GILD at 77.14 this morning - should have waited into the 76's - will see how the rest of the day goes

 

[Fermion]

I just bought 400 more at 76.80. I was actually trying to modify the order down to 76.50 but it filled before I could hit enter

There is no bottom to biotech! Free drugs for everyone!

 

[Fermion]

EXAS bottomed out 9/29 at approx $17.60 and climb to $19.50 earlier today. Just for grins, had you invested that 500 x $78.30 and were lucky enough to buy EXAS at the low you would be up $4226.

Reason for the pop is that doctors who were the most frequent prescribers abruptly stopped ordering the test. After EXAS investigated the reason was that pressure was put on them (financial/insurance etc.) because it was not included in HEDIS. As of today it is confirmed that EXAS is included in HEDIS. The shorts were using this misinformation to drop the stock.

The Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set (HEDIS) is a tool used by more than 90 percent of America's health plans to measure performance on important dimensions of care and service.

"Should" be clear sailing from here. Fingers crossed.

And now EXAS is down to 18.60. Poof! my money would be gone.

 

[wmc1000]

and GILD has gone under $75 today

 

[RothReady2Retire]

I bought another 100 shares today at 75.05.
I am holding about 485 shares I sure hope it goes back to the 80's soon.

 

[Fermion]

I was expecting a small run into earnings but the price has dropped now to $75 (talking Gilead here of course).

I might sell some puts (maybe 5 or 10) for a $75 Jan 2017 strike if it gets me into the stock at $71 or so.

Figure that is about a 2.65% dividend yield at that price level with a payout ratio of under 20% (very safe).

Even if the stock dropped to $50 a share they would likely still be paying that $1.88 dividend (and buying back shares hand over fist).

 

[Fermion]

Mass slaughter today. IBB down 4%, Gilead trading under $74. Fermion finally run over by the steamroller he has been picking up pennies in front of.

I am still a buyer here somewhere. I was expecting Gilead to slightly run up to earnings, then tank after earnings on another miss, but if it tanks this much before earnings, what is left for tankage after earnings? Mid $60s?

The dividend is now a pretty solid 2.54%.

I did buy 3000 shares of Endocyte at $3.06. They announced a PR (partial response) from a member of a phase I dosing study, which is really positive news. The stock trades for less than cash on hand so I am willing to risk a bit here on more news, at least for a few months.

 

[Fermion]

Did not buy much today except 3000 shares of Endocyte for $2.98, bringing me back to 9000 shares.

How low will the big biotech go? Who knows? Amgen Celgene Gilead, even Merck was down.

 

[RothReady2Retire]

100 shares at $73 today. I sure hope this stock turns around!

 

[Fermion]

It could just be a quirk, but Gilead is up 1% today to 73.75 while the DOW is down 170 points. Maybe the tide has turned a bit, maybe it will continue to go down later in the day.

There has to be value here somewhere.

 

[Fermion]

Biotech mass destruction. While Gilead has not fallen really that much from recent lows $73 to $71.50, Amgen has dropped from the $160s down to $135! Even IBB has been slaughtered.

I guess a lot of this is election jitters. I bought some more Endocyte today for $2.65 and they have $3 a share in cash with no debt. Just give everyone a $3 dividend and shut down the company!