Fermion's Biotech Investing (All Welcome)

[Sunset]

No idea, although it seems to be continuing it's decline, while executives continue to sell their stock and get more awarded as 'gifts', which is really not reassuring.

I did see a fellow with that written down as a stock he was interested in, and this reminds me to tell him it seems risky, and revenue is declining.

[wildcat]

Quote:

Originally Posted by wildcat Following Biogen's planned spin off BioVeratiiv (BIVV) Love spin offs Had a nice return with Baxalta

Up 24% since the January '17 spin. Did I make anyone $?

[check6]

My EXAS is up $5.50 (25%) on its earnings report today. EXAS is a colon cancer screening test using DNA. They have penetrated 2% of the market and have a goal of reaching 30% resulting in $4 billion in sales.

[NW-Bound]

Other than Gilead, I have two other individual biotechs. Most of my money in this sector is in ETFs. Thought about EXAS when you first mentioned it, but did not buy. I already had too much in this sector, and did not want to put in more money. I guess I could have traded GILD for EXAS, but did not.

At this point, I made money on all my biotech positions, some as much as 34% since I bought less than a year ago, and these more than made up for the loss on GILD.

[Fedup]

I got rid of my IBBs a couple weeks ago. I did chase after it last year. It did great when I was travelling which is June-July time frame.

[check6]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound Other than Gilead, I have two other individual biotechs. Most of my money in this sector is in ETFs. Thought about EXAS when you first mentioned it, but did not buy. I already had too much in this sector, and did not want to put in more money. I guess I could have traded GILD for EXAS, but did not. At this point, I made money on all my biotech positions, some as much as 34% since I bought less than a year ago, and these more than made up for the loss on GILD.

I locked in EXAS profits yesterday but will buy on any dip. Analyst upgrade from $30 to $40.

They have passed all FDA hurdles and are now on Medicare Advantage plans. They just have to execute. I see it replacing a colonoscopy for many.

[Fermion]

Right now I have 3000 shares of Gilead with 30 Jan 2018 $70 calls sold against them. I am into the stock at about $62.50 counting the call premium. It is very nice getting a dividend check of $1560 every 3 months.

If the shares get called away in Jan, I will have made $22,500 in short term capital gain and $6240 in qualified dividends. A bit more than I wanted for ACA reasons but I will deal with that.

Not bad for a $187,500 investment.

[Running_Man]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion Right now I have 3000 shares of Gilead with 30 Jan 2018 $70 calls sold against them. I am into the stock at about $62.50 counting the call premium. It is very nice getting a dividend check of $1560 every 3 months. If the shares get called away in Jan, I will have made $22,500 in short term capital gain and $6240 in qualified dividends. A bit more than I wanted for ACA reasons but I will deal with that. Not bad for a $187,500 investment.

Sometimes I have trouble following these threads, I thought you had sold your Gilead a few weeks ago and purchased out of the money calls?

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Running_Man Sometimes I have trouble following these threads, I thought you had sold your Gilead a few weeks ago and purchased out of the money calls?

Get with the times man, that was SO last month.

I actually sold 20 of the 30 calls for a profit but kept 10 which ended up expiring worthless. At the low point of that, when Gilead was down in the mid $60s I did the 3000 share covered call thing. I didn't post about it because we have been hella busy buying land and excavators.

[check6]

EXAS is up $3.65 (11.65%) to $35.62 today.

Why Exact Sciences is Soaring - Barron's

[Fermion]

My Endocyte ECYT had a little pop today but really nothing special (10% move). The more interesting thing is the volume was 2.3 million shares vs the average volume of about 230,000 shares.

Next month they make progress update announcement at a conference. Lucy has pulled the football so many times here but maybe this time it gets kicked...

[Fermion]

Endocyte still climbing. At $2.74 now, quite a bit higher than the $2.20 area it was a few days ago. Looking for $30 a share or so.

[Fermion]

Ok, I just sold 6000 shares of Endocyte at $2.95. These had a basis of $2.20, so a nice $4500 locked in there. Still holding 14,000 shares.

Also still holding the 3000 Gilead shares and the Jan 2018 $70 calls I sold against them. The Endocyte trade is MUCH more profitable at the moment even considering it had/has around 20% of the money of the Gilead trade at risk.

Gilead pays about $1500 in dividends every three months though.

[Sunset]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion Ok, I just sold 6000 shares of Endocyte at $2.95. These had a basis of $2.20, so a nice $4500 locked in there. Still holding 14,000 shares. .....

nice, but does this mean you are less sure about it ?

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sunset nice, but does this mean you are less sure about it ?

Not really. Their chance of making it big is probably lower than 1%.

At $3 they are approaching existing cash on hand. At $2.20 they were trading for $0.70 on the dollar.

[aja8888]

AMGN is taking another hit today because of bad news on it's drug trial for upcoming its osteoporosis drug. The stock has been in steady decline since March of this year. It may be time again to take a position if it goes into the mid 130's again. Any thoughts on this?

[Fermion]

I would buy in at $130. Big bio is pretty cheap right now based on earnings and cash on hand. Amgen pays a nice divy too.

[Fermion]

Endocyte crashed big today (30%). They are aborting trials on EC1456 and laying off 40% of the workforce. They are going to refocus on Car-T and a couple of molecules.

End of year 2017 cash on hand now predicted to increase to $105 million. I think they have about $135 million in cash right now.

Currently trading for about $78 million after this drop.

They probably should fold up shop and sell the technology to the highest bidder or on craigslist.

The only viable companies to invest in are Apple, Amazon and Facebook.

[aja8888]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion The only viable companies to invest in are Apple, Amazon and Facebook.

So is that the new game plan? No more biotechs?

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by aja8888 So is that the new game plan? No more biotechs?

No, the new game plan is to short biotechs