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Finally sold TSLA
Old 10-25-2019, 07:52 AM   #1
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Finally sold TSLA

Whew, that feels like a weight off my shoulders! I bought at around 173 a few years ago, saw it shoot up into the mid-300s, but after Musk's erratic behavior, I decided to get out even though I think the company's battery production in particular holds a lot of potential.

So a few weeks ago, when it was in the 230s, I put in an order to sell if it hit 275, which seemed a stretch, as their stock value seemed to depend a lot on their car production numbers, which I find less...inspiring. So I lucked out and it sold at 298 yesterday.

For perspective, this is in an account where I've dabbled in a couple of individual stocks. Now all it holds is AAPL, GOOG, and GOOGL. (I got in on both before their splits, about 10 years ago.)

Anyone else getting in or out of TSLA now, or thinking about it?

(I'd prefer we avoid the issues that got the last Tesla thread closed, and stick mostly to opinions on TSLA as an investment.)
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Old 10-25-2019, 08:58 AM   #2
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If buying any stock feels like a weight on your shoulders you should not be in individual stocks. Just stick with funds.
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Breaking News: The World Will End At 9 tonight! Details at 11
Old 10-25-2019, 11:30 AM   #3
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Breaking News: The World Will End At 9 tonight! Details at 11

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckanut View Post
IMO, the stories of Mr. Musk's erratic behavior were grossly exaggerated by the press.
Hyperbole in the media? That's crazy talk! Won't ever happen.
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Old 10-25-2019, 11:32 AM   #4
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+1 to BlueSkies. At least for me.
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Old 10-25-2019, 11:58 AM   #5
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Glad you had a +17% day to boost your profits.

I don't hold TSLA, I own the cars.
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Old 10-25-2019, 01:22 PM   #6
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I'd love to own one eventually! Right now I have more faith in their cars than in the long-term prospects for the company, so I've made a slight course correction with the small amount I put in, but it's not enough for even a Model 3.
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Old 10-25-2019, 02:43 PM   #7
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Well, today it's up 10% to 324 as I write this. Watched Nightly Business Report and one investment guru predicted 450 by the end of next year.
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Old 10-25-2019, 05:06 PM   #8
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If it gets back near your original purchase price, will you get back in ?
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Finally sold TSLA
Old 10-25-2019, 05:08 PM   #9
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Finally sold TSLA

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bir48die
Well, today it's up 10% to 324 as I write this. Watched Nightly Business Report and one investment guru predicted 450 by the end of next year.


Will he be more accurate than the gurus who told us Tesla would fold before the end of the second quarter of 2019?
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Old 10-25-2019, 05:29 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lakewood90712 View Post
If it gets back near your original purchase price, will you get back in ?
Probably not. I still am rooting for their battery and charging station initiatives, but I have less confidence in them than I did when I bought. Chuckanut summed up my feelings on the recent rosy predictions:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckanut View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bir48die View Post
Well, today it's up 10% to 324 as I write this. Watched Nightly Business Report and one investment guru predicted 450 by the end of next year.
Will he be more accurate than the gurus who told us Tesla would fold before the end of the second quarter of 2019?
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Old 10-25-2019, 05:34 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Chuckanut View Post
Will he be more accurate than the gurus who told us Tesla would fold before the end of the second quarter of 2019?


Whatever you want to believe, you can find a monkey with a keyboard who will tell you that you are right. (My current favorite cartoon BTW.)
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Old 10-25-2019, 06:09 PM   #12
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I was surprised to see another jump up today (almost 10%!). I figured that such a large rise yesterday ( > 17%!) would have been seen as an over-reaction, and we'd see at least some pullback today. But that didn't happen.

While the profit was obviously good news, their revenues are about flat from a year ago. At that time, they were supply limited (Musk described it as "production Hell"). So they are past that (but still no where near the 10,000/week Model 3s that Musk had predicted long ago?), they've opened up new markets, and they haven't grown sales?

If I were an investor in a "growth story", that would worry me.

I don't trust my memory, so:

https://electrek.co/2017/08/03/tesla...-reservations/

From August, 2017:

Quote:
Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk has Ďzero doubtí about 10,000 units per week in 2018
And from the report:
https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/47...7-d161bce15da4

Auto revenues down 12%,
Total Revenues down 8%,

It took some searching, but deliveries went from 83,775 Q3-2018 to 97,000 Q3-2019, a 16% increase, significant, but considering the above shouldn't those numbers be much higher?

It will be interesting to see what investors think after reviewing the 10Q, due out in a week or two?

-ERD50
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Old 10-25-2019, 06:16 PM   #13
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Getting out?

No, I sleep very well at night with my investment in TSLA.
It is definitely not a stock to own if you donít like volatility.

Owning and driving the vehicles and backup PowerWalls only gives me more confidence in the stock.
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Old 10-25-2019, 07:05 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Cosmic Avenger View Post
Anyone else getting in or out of TSLA now, or thinking about it?
I do not currently invest in individual stocks. That said, between Ford, GM, and Tesla stock, only one of the three seems to have a leader who is trying to mold the future to his or her vision. The others are probably MBA staid types - perfect fit for static markets. The average bloke isn't likely to know their names. Also, only one also runs the equivalent of a gas station chain and has other product lines with possible breakout potential.

Maybe for those reasons, or maybe it's irrational exuberance, the market thinks more highly of Tesla than of Ford or GM. The market hath spoken - for today anyway.
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Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
I was surprised to see another jump up today (almost 10%!). I figured that such a large rise yesterday ( > 17%!) would have been seen as an over-reaction, and we'd see at least some pullback today. But that didn't happen.
I believe short interest was fairly large - it is possible the second day jump was due to a fair bunch of short sellers throwing in the towel (or forced.)
Quote:
While the profit was obviously good news, their revenues are about flat from a year ago. At that time, they were supply limited (Musk described it as "production Hell"). So they are past that (but still no where near the 10,000/week Model 3s that Musk had predicted long ago?), they've opened up new markets, and they haven't grown sales?

If I were an investor in a "growth story", that would worry me.

I don't trust my memory, so:

https://electrek.co/2017/08/03/tesla...-reservations/

From August, 2017:

And from the report:
https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/47...7-d161bce15da4

Auto revenues down 12%,
Total Revenues down 8%,

It took some searching, but deliveries went from 83,775 Q3-2018 to 97,000 Q3-2019, a 16% increase, significant, but considering the above shouldn't those numbers be much higher?

It will be interesting to see what investors think after reviewing the 10Q, due out in a week or two?

-ERD50
My understanding is that there was a shift in unit sales from the more expensive models to the lower cost Model 3, accounting for the lack-luster revenue. There was also some mention of which quarter some of the previous production was recognized due to a shift toward worldwide distribution. They say they are selling all they can produce, so maybe there is a production problem. In theory by this time next year they should have at least double the production now that their Chinese factory is ready.
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Old 01-07-2020, 07:24 AM   #15
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I actually bought in just a few weeks earlier @$250, and it closed at $451 yesterday. I am up 80% in 3 months - by far the most luck I have ever had.

However, I intend to hold this stock long term. There is just to much disruption caused by this company, and no traditional automaker can seem to crack the code. Gigafactories in China and soon in Berlin, the ever expanding supercharger network, autonomy, the upcoming Model Y. This all spells upside to me.
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Old 01-11-2020, 11:24 PM   #16
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Haha! - I may have bought your shares. In my "fun money" brokerage account I bought 4 shares of TSLA at $275 - now at $478. As a "buy-and-hold" investor I am just amused to have my finger in the pie - but I see individual stocks as gambling, not investing, so I only play with money that I can afford to lose. (I also bought Gold at $300/Oz and have no intention of selling that either! - but I am also not buying more.)
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Old 01-12-2020, 06:41 PM   #17
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If buying any stock feels like a weight on your shoulders you should not be in individual stocks. Just stick with funds.
++1. IMHO, Tesla, not "profitable". So do not own. Agree, their "battery" technology looks promising. So some value there. But not enough
to own Tesla stock.

IMHO, one needs to separate, cutting edge, exciting electric vehicles . And a business who's revenue (sales), do not cover the cost of production.
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Old 01-13-2020, 11:38 AM   #18
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I bought $2.5K worth of TSLA on the day of its IPO, I believe it was just south of $20 at the time and the shorts were swarming around the company, taking predictions on how fast it would sink... (un)fortunately, I sold when it had almost doubled in the mid $30 a share.

Hard to second guess a gain like that, but I could probably buy a Tesla today with the shares if I had kept them
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Old 01-13-2020, 01:00 PM   #19
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I bought $2.5K worth of TSLA on the day of its IPO, I believe it was just south of $20 at the time and the shorts were swarming around the company, taking predictions on how fast it would sink... (un)fortunately, I sold when it had almost doubled in the mid $30 a share.

Hard to second guess a gain like that, but I could probably buy a Tesla today with the shares if I had kept them
That would be worth $75K today.
Model 3 performance price around that.
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Old 01-13-2020, 05:13 PM   #20
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I bought 10 shares at $377 when Elon said he was taking Tesla private, just so I could stay in touch. Though I was skeptical regular people would be able to participate. Would have been nice if I'd bought at $20's. Then I bought another 10 shares at $281 since it was 25% down. When it reached $188 I couldn't resist and bought 100 shares.

It's the only individual stock I own now. I'd be happy to sell, but I don't want the capital gains hit while I'm trying to Roth convert everything I can fit under $250k AGI this year. So sometime next year if it doesn't tank. Might still be interesting with a few new models starting up between now and then.
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