Fine Tuning Tax Efficiency/Withdrawal Specifics

DawgMan

Full time employment: Posting here.
Joined
Oct 22, 2015
Messages
900
So as I get closer to hopefully launching at the end of 2019 (age 55), I am starting to dive into the minutia of my withdrawal strategy specifics. Up until this point, I have used Firecalc to basically monitor my target and have made conservative assumptions (i.e. 25% effective tax rate, no SS). As I get closer, I am starting to dig in deeper and have run basic I-Orp to get a sense of how to minimize my tax burden. In my case, my investments will fund 100% of my income and at this point, I have settled in on being a "total return" investor (as opposed to a dividend investor) with a planned AA through RE of 60/40, doing a once a year rebalance. I am also roughly 50/50 invested in tax differed & taxable accounts. My plan is to have 3 budgets (which include taxes)... 1) ideal "fat" living, 2) good living, and 3) oh $hit, the market tanked, its movie night! My target is for budget 1) which is based on the 4% rule and so budgets 2) & 3) dip below 4%. For now, let's call budget 1) +/- $300K which means taxes are in play.

Questions...

- Naturally, my taxable accounts will produce income from interest and dividends. Currently, they get reinvested. It appears most people have this income go directly into a cash account as spendable income #1. As a total return investor, any logic to keeping this income reinvested and then settling my overall spending income for the year when I rebalance?

- I-Orp shows my income coming from taxable accounts until 59 (expected) and then nothing coming out of taxable accounts for 4 years (other than any income produced), and then a blend thereafter. Interestingly, the years prior to 59 1/2 show an effective tax rate as low as 4% and the highest rate was about 23% in later years (not surprising later years are higher, just that I don't hit 25%... at least before adding state taxes). Is I-Orp the best tool for forecasting these taxes/account withdrawal strategies or do most of you just run a mock return each year? Any other good tax tools?

I suppose the good news is I used conservative assumptions as I set my RE target nut, but obviously being tax smart with a withdrawal strategy can add up to some real spendable $$ in RE. I have not played around with Roth conversions (my current tax bracket is too high to consider now), but perhaps that exercise is warranted during the years prior to 59 1/2? Aside from managing your capital gains/losses to minimize taxes, any other tools to further maximize your net available spendable $?
 
I'm planning to retire at 53, taking distributions from taxable accounts (of which 20% represents long-term gains), and from an inherited IRA. In the years between 59.5 and the start of SS, I plan to take out large tax-deferred distributions, so that there will be a lower tax rate when I start taking SS at 70. I'm starting out with a planned effective tax rate of 1.5% for the first 5 years, then 3%, and it ramps up to 8% by the time SS kicks in at 70. My goal is to defer taxes as long as possible, by taking distribution on the inherited IRA = the standard deductions for 2. Everyone's case is different, with different variables. I've been told that since you pay taxes on interest and dividends, you should not reinvest those, as you'd be paying taxes twice.
 
I think a lot of retirees are surprised when they realize just how low their effective tax rate is.
Unless your spending budget is well over 100k, you will not see 25%.
 
I think DawgMan stated his spending would be $300K which is well over $100K.

But what does that really mean? Don't forget that Return of Capital is tax-free, so selling $250K in taxable might mean only $50K to $100K of capital gains and the rest is return of capital. Add in $50K of distributions and away one goes.

Don't reinvest distribution which will just cause headaches and short-term positions that will interfere with clarity of rebalancing. One should not have any shares held short-term in retirement in most cases. All of one's taxable account assets should be long-term shares.
 
Are many using I-Orp as an effective tool in choosing accounts to withdrawal from at a macro level or are there better tools out there today?
 
Taking distributions in cash will reduce the possibility that you need to sell equities and possibly trigger more taxes.
 
I started digging deeper into my own details of taxes as they relate to withdrawals. The interesting thing is that things I took as a given like Roth rollovers actually make little sense when you realize they may only save you 2% and you are basing that on an assumption of what tax rates will be 10-15 years down the road. Wake up call for me.
 
Also, I-Orp hasn’t been updated for the new tax law. Anyone notice that?
 
Also, I-Orp hasn’t been updated for the new tax law. Anyone notice that?

I haven't tried to prove it yet, but on top of the extended version of I-ORP, it effectively states that the new tax law is being incorporated.:confused:
 
Extended I-Orp does include the new tax brackets. You can see it in the tax tables and it also shows the phase out of the brackets.
 
I used the regular version this morning and it gave me my results using 2017's tax brackets so I guess I should use the extended version.
 
I used the regular version this morning and it gave me my results using 2017's tax brackets so I guess I should use the extended version.

So I used the extended version and it does in fact use the new tax categories. One more eye opener for me was that it is showing that I should deplete my Roth in year 1 of retirement. I always assumed you let the Roth ride, but they suggest otherwise.
 
If your Roth's total rate of return is lower than the taxable and tax-deferred accounts, then it may pull from your Roth first.
 
If your Roth's total rate of return is lower than the taxable and tax-deferred accounts, then it may pull from your Roth first.

So if I had an 80/20 allocation in it vs, 60/40, it may tell me to let it ride.
 
So I am assuming I-orp is valuable still as a macro tool, but otherwise, most folks are running mock tax returns and slicing/dicing year to year?
 
So I am assuming I-orp is valuable still as a macro tool, but otherwise, most folks are running mock tax returns and slicing/dicing year to year?

Both are 100% dependent on your inputs and both will change based on your actions.
 
When I plug in my numbers, I-orp extended suggests I liquidate our tIRAs, 401k, 403b, for the next 10 years, and put the proceeds into an after tax account. I'm shocked at the advice. I would at least expect conversions for those years.
 
When I plug in my numbers, I-orp extended suggests I liquidate our tIRAs, 401k, 403b, for the next 10 years, and put the proceeds into an after tax account. I'm shocked at the advice. I would at least expect conversions for those years.

Does the after tax account have a higher rate of return than the other accounts? I-Orp will not maintain your equity to fixed income ratio, it optimizes dollars available for spending.
 
When I plug in my numbers, I-orp extended suggests I liquidate our tIRAs, 401k, 403b, for the next 10 years, and put the proceeds into an after tax account. I'm shocked at the advice. I would at least expect conversions for those years.

You should be shocked because your results are counter intuitive. Remember, ORP is an optimizer & not a simulator. In your case you are probably heavy on the the tax-deferred accounts. Early in retirement ORP is pushing withdrawals from the tax-deferred account to the top of lower tax brackets and transfering them to the taxable account. ORP is using the taxable account as a holding pen so that later in retirement spending can be funded from the tax-deferred account to the top of a lower tax bracket supplemented from taxable withdrawals at a lower rate.

I suggest you submit your question & run to the web site for evaluation and explanation.
 
Is I-Orp the best tool for forecasting these taxes/account withdrawal strategies ?

$?
No. ORP makes no pretensions about forecasting. ORP is a guide line generator, to lay out a map for retirement. How that guideline is implemented is a matter of year-by-year decision making based on personal situation changes and changing environmental conditions.

The paper https://www.onefpa.org/journal/Page...stainable-Retirement-Savings-Withdrawals.aspx addresses this issue in a practical way.
 
Back
Top Bottom