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01-17-2011, 07:46 PM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: palm bay , FL
Posts: 121
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first 3 months worst
I saw a report that says for the last 10 years, the intra-year lows of the market indexes have always occured in the first 3 months, I must admit it has added to my concern to add to my positions, in conjunction with the what everyone says about market, rates, unemployment, etc.
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01-17-2011, 08:06 PM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,698
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If it's not one thing it's another. Has there ever been a time when someone wasn't saying something about something.
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01-17-2011, 09:18 PM
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#3
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,860
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Quote:
Originally Posted by perrytime
I saw a report that says for the last 10 years, the intra-year lows of the market indexes have always occured in the first 3 months, I must admit it has added to my concern to add to my positions, in conjunction with the what everyone says about market, rates, unemployment, etc.
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If you provide a link to the report then we could further investigate the concept of "data mining". There's enough stock-market history out there for any "report" to "prove" anything.
If you're concerned at this kind of financial pornography then it may be an indication that you're not comfortable with your current asset allocation. It's worth figuring out what exposure to what types of assets is a good compromise of balanced returns and "sleep at night" comfort. Then you can read this kind of crap reporting to your heart's content, secure in the knowledge that your asset allocation will get you through just about every scary catastrophe lurking in our anxiety closets.
__________________
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Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
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01-18-2011, 08:12 AM
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#4
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: palm bay , FL
Posts: 121
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my bad
I mis-quoted the report, i skimmed it too quickly. It was simply claiming there has been a market top and a decline of 4% or more in first quarter every year last 10 years, not very meaningful, and I spot checked the data and found it was tainted as sometimes it looked backward into DEC to establish the top. being it is a paid for report, shared to me, I cannot post or link it. so never mind me.
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01-18-2011, 06:38 PM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 10,252
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I saw a report once that said the market goes up at times and goes down at other times. I spot-checked the data and it was true.
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01-18-2011, 06:56 PM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,433
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Quote:
Originally Posted by perrytime
It was simply claiming there has been a market top and a decline of 4% or more in first quarter every year last 10 years, not very meaningful
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This would not be very surprising, since a market volatility of 16% (the current VIX) would imply a 1/3 probability of an 8% move up or down over a 90-day period.
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I'd rather be governed by the first one hundred names in the telephone book than the Harvard faculty - William F. Buckley
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01-19-2011, 04:07 PM
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#7
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,860
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LOL!
I saw a report once that said the market goes up at times and goes down at other times. I spot-checked the data and it was true.
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Whoa whoa whoa-- got a link for that technical analysis?!?
(Just kidding.)
__________________
*
Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
Author of the book written on E-R.org: "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement."
I don't spend much time here— please send a PM.
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