Follow Shipping Stocks? - Page 6

**REWahoo** · 10-30-2007, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg52

You did see "just kidding of course".

Of course...

Dawg54 · 10-30-2007, 03:14 PM

I need a drink.

brewer12345 · 10-30-2007, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by twaddle

In at 16 with my go-go mo-mo adrenaline dough.

You mean you bought today?

I thought the quarter was great and even if rates slack off a bit they will print money. Big question is the stuff they just bought that isn't chartered yet, but they've got a while to figure it out since the ships won't be delivered for a while.

brewer12345 · 10-30-2007, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg52

I need a drink.

Well, before you sit down with Al K. Hall, how about a bit of perspective? Nm is higher than where it was at the close on Thursday.

twaddle · 10-30-2007, 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345

You mean you bought today?

I thought the quarter was great and even if rates slack off a bit they will print money. Big question is the stuff they just bought that isn't chartered yet, but they've got a while to figure it out since the ships won't be delivered for a while.

Yes, bought today. The fundamentals do look pretty good, and the sector has plenty of momentum. I like that combination. Obviously, it's a cyclical sector, so I just hope I can get out before the bad news starts coming in.

brewer12345 · 10-30-2007, 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by twaddle

Yes, bought today. The fundamentals do look pretty good, and the sector has plenty of momentum. I like that combination. Obviously, it's a cyclical sector, so I just hope I can get out before the bad news starts coming in.

One of the reasons I prefer names like NM and EGLE to DRYS and EXM is that the former have chosen to go with longer term charters to shield themselves from a downturn in day rates. The distinction doesn't seem to be made by the market today, unfortunately, but EGLE and NM are essentially "sold out" through 2008 with charters locked at good rates, while DRYS and EXM have most of their fleet on spot.

73ss454 · 10-30-2007, 03:41 PM

I kept buying as it kept going down. Just hope it's over now.

twaddle · 10-30-2007, 03:47 PM

Hmm, that cape index hockey stick does look a bit scary:

brewer12345 · 10-30-2007, 03:50 PM

Sure does, which is why I'm not interested in the guys who borrow money, go buy a cape, and put it on spot.

brewer12345 · 10-30-2007, 04:43 PM

Aha! Maybe the root cause. China posturing ahead of iron ore price negotiations. Can't see them not buying ore (and paying higher prices), so maybe this really is a tempest in a teapot:

Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- DryShips Inc. and competitors that
that carry raw materials fell from record levels after The
Australian newspaper reported Chinese steel producers are taking
a tough negotiating line to fix next year's iron ore price.
DryShips fell $22.97, or 18 percent, to $108 in Nasdaq
composite trading. Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. fell $10.89, or
14 percent, to $67.05, and Diana Shipping Inc. fell $5.57, or 12
percent, to $39.25. The Bloomberg Dry Ships Index , which rose
to a record yesterday, has almost tripled this year. DryShips
has surged fivefold.
``China is trying to spook the market,'' Natasha Boyden, a
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst, said. ``They did a good job.''
Dry-bulk companies have profited from China's demand for
iron ore and other commodities. The newspaper reported today
that Zhang Jingang, deputy secretary general of the China Iron
and Steel Association, said profitability in the Chinese
steelmaking industry is falling and that there would be no
increase in the price China pays for Australian iron ore.

clifp · 10-30-2007, 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345

Aha! Maybe the root cause. China posturing ahead of iron ore price negotiations. Can't see them not buying ore (and paying higher prices), so maybe this really is a tempest in a teapot:

The newspaper reported today
that Zhang Jingang, deputy secretary general of the China Iron
and Steel Association, said profitability in the Chinese
steelmaking industry is falling and that there would be no
increase in the price China pays for Australian iron ore.

I got back from a 18 day trip to China recently, my first. Everywhere you look they are throwing up skyscrapers 50 60 100 stories, and in China they don't build one condo or hotel they tend to build 2-4 identical units.

As far as I can determine, that aren't using bamboo to make these things...
So not paying more for ore means less steel --> less building. I think this will have a huge ripple effect for the Chinese and world economy, nteresting to see.

brewer12345 · 10-30-2007, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clifp

As far as I can determine, that aren't using bamboo to make these things...
So not paying more for ore means less steel --> less building. I think this will have a huge ripple effect for the Chinese and world economy, nteresting to see.

Heh, its not that they will make less steel. China isn't going to stop expanding and exporting, and they aren't going to find a magical source of iron ore (or coal). This is posturing ahead of the critical negotiations that set iron ore prices for the coming Asian fiscal year starting 4/01/08. The iron ore prices are making similarly aggressive noises, and things will settle out as they always do. I think the Chinese are blustering because they are in a weak bargaining position.

Its not a lock that this is the reason for teh dry bulk slump, but if this is the reason, then it means this is a massive buying opportunity. Time will tell which is the case. I plan on holding for the moment. Getting into NM at $5 means that fluctuations in the upper teens are a little easier to take, pschologically.

vvsonikvv · 11-01-2007, 10:25 PM

up up up, down down, up, down.... roller coaster...

brewer12345 · 11-02-2007, 06:46 AM

Hey, its the stock market.

Actually, I have decided to harvest some of the volatility. Sold calls against my DSX shares ($8 plus for June 45s) and against 20% of my NM shares ($2.55 for March 20s). Also blasted out my appreciated EGLE calls.

vvsonikvv · 11-02-2007, 05:41 PM

what roller coasters are no fun if it only goes up up up... you need some downs and then back up up up down down... as long as it finishs up up up.

I've never done options before. Sounds interesting to hear you talk about them all the time... I'm curious to learn more.

brewer12345 · 11-02-2007, 08:01 PM

If you have a background in math, you can read any standard text on opptions and the Black Scholes model and get it pretty easily. If not, ask and I can pound out the short version. But if you start dabbling in these things, there a couple of rules to keep in mind:

- Write calls only on stock you already own. Write puts on stuff you want to buy at the strike price.
- Its OK to buy calls and puts on a speculative basis, but mentally kis every dollar you spend on these things goodbye as you do so because they are high risk speculations.

Art G · 11-07-2007, 02:49 PM

Actually, Uraguay is considered the next China, and NM is shipping to that area. The benefits to Uraguay are that they are on the same time zone as the US and have cheap labor. I've been looking for some Uraguay plays recently.

Art G · 11-07-2007, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vvsonikvv

what roller coasters are no fun if it only goes up up up... you need some downs and then back up up up down down... as long as it finishs up up up.

I've never done options before. Sounds interesting to hear you talk about them all the time... I'm curious to learn more.

Think in terms of playing Craps. Buying puts and calls is like playing the come line. Writing puts and calls is like playing the don't come.
If you are looking to dabble more safely with buying options, consider option spreads. Just my opinion.

brewer12345 · 11-07-2007, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Art G

Actually, Uraguay is considered the next China, and NM is shipping to that area. The benefits to Uraguay are that they are on the same time zone as the US and have cheap labor. I've been looking for some Uraguay plays recently.

OK, but the Uruguayan port operations are maybe 5% of the total company.

10-30-2007, 03:14 PM	#102
Dawg54 Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Mississippi Posts: 3,228	I need a drink. __________________ The born loser.

10-30-2007, 03:47 PM	#108
twaddle Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,377	Hmm, that cape index hockey stick does look a bit scary: __________________ Favorite ERF quote: "I'm not going to waste my time on someone who's more interested in being stubborn or obtuse or intolerant." -- Nords Favorite ERF error message: "Sorry Nords is a moderator/admin and you are not allowed to ignore him or her."

10-30-2007, 03:50 PM	#109
brewer12345 Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ... Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 9,255	Sure does, which is why I'm not interested in the guys who borrow money, go buy a cape, and put it on spot. __________________ “When you realize that you are one of the rare few who observe moral principles in their relationships with others, there is a temptation to sink into amorality, not out of conviction or pleasure but simply to avoid further pain, because there is no greater suffering than being an angel in hell, whereas a devil feels at home wherever he goes.” – Martin Page, How I Became Stupid

10-30-2007, 04:43 PM	#110
brewer12345 Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ... Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 9,255	Aha! Maybe the root cause. China posturing ahead of iron ore price negotiations. Can't see them not buying ore (and paying higher prices), so maybe this really is a tempest in a teapot: Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- DryShips Inc. and competitors that that carry raw materials fell from record levels after The Australian newspaper reported Chinese steel producers are taking a tough negotiating line to fix next year's iron ore price. DryShips fell $22.97, or 18 percent, to $108 in Nasdaq composite trading. Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. fell $10.89, or 14 percent, to $67.05, and Diana Shipping Inc. fell $5.57, or 12 percent, to $39.25. The Bloomberg Dry Ships Index , which rose to a record yesterday, has almost tripled this year. DryShips has surged fivefold. ``China is trying to spook the market,'' Natasha Boyden, a Cantor Fitzgerald analyst, said. ``They did a good job.'' Dry-bulk companies have profited from China's demand for iron ore and other commodities. The newspaper reported today that Zhang Jingang, deputy secretary general of the China Iron and Steel Association, said profitability in the Chinese steelmaking industry is falling and that there would be no increase in the price China pays for Australian iron ore. __________________ “When you realize that you are one of the rare few who observe moral principles in their relationships with others, there is a temptation to sink into amorality, not out of conviction or pleasure but simply to avoid further pain, because there is no greater suffering than being an angel in hell, whereas a devil feels at home wherever he goes.” – Martin Page, How I Became Stupid

11-02-2007, 06:46 AM	#114
brewer12345 Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ... Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 9,255	Hey, its the stock market. Actually, I have decided to harvest some of the volatility. Sold calls against my DSX shares ($8 plus for June 45s) and against 20% of my NM shares ($2.55 for March 20s). Also blasted out my appreciated EGLE calls. __________________ “When you realize that you are one of the rare few who observe moral principles in their relationships with others, there is a temptation to sink into amorality, not out of conviction or pleasure but simply to avoid further pain, because there is no greater suffering than being an angel in hell, whereas a devil feels at home wherever he goes.” – Martin Page, How I Became Stupid

10-30-2007, 03:41 PM	#107
73ss454 Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 1,763	I kept buying as it kept going down. Just hope it's over now.

11-01-2007, 10:25 PM	#113
vvsonikvv Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 87	up up up, down down, up, down.... roller coaster...

11-02-2007, 05:41 PM	#115
vvsonikvv Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 87	what roller coasters are no fun if it only goes up up up... you need some downs and then back up up up down down... as long as it finishs up up up. I've never done options before. Sounds interesting to hear you talk about them all the time... I'm curious to learn more.

11-02-2007, 08:01 PM	#116
brewer12345 Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ... Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 9,255	If you have a background in math, you can read any standard text on opptions and the Black Scholes model and get it pretty easily. If not, ask and I can pound out the short version. But if you start dabbling in these things, there a couple of rules to keep in mind: - Write calls only on stock you already own. Write puts on stuff you want to buy at the strike price. - Its OK to buy calls and puts on a speculative basis, but mentally kis every dollar you spend on these things goodbye as you do so because they are high risk speculations. __________________ “When you realize that you are one of the rare few who observe moral principles in their relationships with others, there is a temptation to sink into amorality, not out of conviction or pleasure but simply to avoid further pain, because there is no greater suffering than being an angel in hell, whereas a devil feels at home wherever he goes.” – Martin Page, How I Became Stupid

11-07-2007, 02:49 PM	#117
Art G Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 1,052	Actually, Uraguay is considered the next China, and NM is shipping to that area. The benefits to Uraguay are that they are on the same time zone as the US and have cheap labor. I've been looking for some Uraguay plays recently.