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Old 09-22-2008, 12:50 PM   #221
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pull up a 3 year chart and you will see the MACD trend up since January while it made a new low last week

and the stochastic lows are trending up since july while it lost half it's value
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Old 09-22-2008, 01:21 PM   #222
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My chart shows it as only being around since 2/07, and I show it breaking support. We are talking about NM, right?
I much prefer the chart of FRO. JMO
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Old 09-22-2008, 01:24 PM   #223
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FRO the MACD is making new lows while the stock price is trending higher

NM is not the best, but at least the MACD is starting to trend up again

i'll have to look in my book to doublecheck

financials of NM look a lot better too
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Old 09-22-2008, 01:45 PM   #224
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OK, I'll watch it.
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Old 09-22-2008, 01:52 PM   #225
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not the best chart and the 3 year weekly is not very good either but probably OK for a nibble

i'm using the poster kids of the last bull market as examples for any buying. after i run my screens and find stocks i check the charts and compare them to the charts of AAPL, SNDK, WDC, ADBE from 2002-2003. APPL being the best example
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Old 09-22-2008, 08:41 PM   #226
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i'm using the poster kids of the last bull market as examples for any buying. after i run my screens and find stocks i check the charts and compare them to the charts of AAPL, SNDK, WDC, ADBE from 2002-2003. APPL being the best example
correlation is not causation.

AAPL released their first ipod at the end of 2001. It took several years of revisions for them to hit mass market appeal. Fundamentals drove the initial stock take off, not an inverted hammer or doji on the chart.
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Old 09-22-2008, 08:58 PM   #227
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steve jobs came back to apple several years before that and shortly afterwards is when the current style came out along with a lot of improvements. The ipod was just the right product at the right time to get apple to take off. but if you look at what steve jobs did, it wasn't an accident.

i'm going by the Bill O'Neill defintion of a technical base breakout. New bull market started and by his theory is that the new leaders had to break out of bases at that time or in the months afterward. Apple broke out of a huge cup and handle around the time we crossed the border into iraq or toppled saddam's statue. SNDK and ADBE were around the same time, GOOG came public in 2004.
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Old 09-23-2008, 01:48 PM   #228
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IBD is free till 9/28 including the website

so i go there to check out NM since the market seems to be rallying after the Senate Banking hearings finished.

NM gets a nice score of 45 out 100 and it's not in the top 5 of it's industry group. i think i'll pass for now
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BDI is continuing an absolute collapse in rates
Old 09-26-2008, 10:11 AM   #229
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BDI is continuing an absolute collapse in rates

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Old 09-26-2008, 03:44 PM   #230
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Interesting:

Business Feed Article | Business | guardian.co.uk

CHICAGO, Sept 26 (Reuters) - The credit crunch is sucking liquidity out of global trade and the shipping business, leaving cargoes stranded on docks and threatening to bring down shipyards and ship owners alike, the top executive of Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd said on Friday.
"The banks have ceased lending and a lack of liquidity affects trade," Stamatis Molaris told Reuters in a telephone interview. "The demand for goods is there; there is just not enough liquidity to move those goods around."
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Old 09-26-2008, 03:52 PM   #231
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Interesting:

Business Feed Article | Business | guardian.co.uk

CHICAGO, Sept 26 (Reuters) - The credit crunch is sucking liquidity out of global trade and the shipping business, leaving cargoes stranded on docks and threatening to bring down shipyards and ship owners alike, the top executive of Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd said on Friday.
"The banks have ceased lending and a lack of liquidity affects trade," Stamatis Molaris told Reuters in a telephone interview. "The demand for goods is there; there is just not enough liquidity to move those goods around."
Hopefully after a bailout package is done(assuming it does get done), maybe some relief will come to the shipping industry. You can tell I'm a stockholder.
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Old 09-26-2008, 03:57 PM   #232
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A lack of financing/letters of credit to even get goods on board is ridiculous. Simply cannot go on for long or the global economy will grind to a halt and stay that way. But we can let the banking system implode, right Audrey?
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Old 09-27-2008, 11:49 AM   #233
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looking at the NM chart and I think I agree, looks like the most recent selling is panic selling
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Old 09-27-2008, 04:45 PM   #234
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Smells like panic selling too me as well. I may sell at year end for a tax loss, but I am not getting out of the sector.
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Old 10-01-2008, 08:51 AM   #235
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Well the BDI just keeps dropping 7 percent perday, has done that for about 3 weeks straight. The last few days the panamax index has been dropping 10-15 percent per day. Both are at 5 year lows now down about 80 percent in 4 months.

I view this as the canary in the cage.....................
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Old 10-01-2008, 01:11 PM   #236
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Well the BDI just keeps dropping 7 percent perday, has done that for about 3 weeks straight. The last few days the panamax index has been dropping 10-15 percent per day. Both are at 5 year lows now down about 80 percent in 4 months.

I view this as the canary in the cage.....................
Could you translate that for the metaphorically challenged like me?
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Old 10-01-2008, 01:16 PM   #237
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Ah ha - so that means I buy a bunch more EGLE - right?

Now that it's on sale.



heh heh heh - BTW we did did notice the Saint's won. Ok ok so it was the niners - but they did win.
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Old 10-01-2008, 04:08 PM   #238
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Could you translate that for the metaphorically challenged like me?

Day ship rates, even more for boats that are crossing through the panama canal for some reason are dropping like a stone. I have been watching the BDI index since Brewer posted the link for the site, as I find it a sensitive and very responsive economic activity indicator. It is not foolproof by any means, but a healthy economy would not have shipping rates fall 80%. It shows a drop in orders, which will eventually show up in the economic number down the road. It does not necessarily indicate that the shipping stocks are in concert with the BDI index, since much freight has been contracted for by multi-year contracts but it shows direction pretty well and the shipping stocks tend to follow. Don't see how the BDI could fall much further, but I started to think that when it hit 5000 and it's fallen 38 percent since then in a couple weeks.
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Old 10-01-2008, 04:30 PM   #239
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Well the BDI just keeps dropping 7 percent perday, has done that for about 3 weeks straight. The last few days the panamax index has been dropping 10-15 percent per day. Both are at 5 year lows now down about 80 percent in 4 months.

I view this as the canary in the cage.....................
So you the cat that's gonna eat the canary?
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Old 10-01-2008, 04:32 PM   #240
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Thnx Running_Man. You were suggesting that the BDI is miner's canary for world trade and hence the level of world economic activity.

Perhaps might presage further weakness in crude and other commodity prices too.

Ha
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