Follow Shipping Stocks? - Page 17

clifp · 11-27-2008, 07:31 PM

Any opinions on DSX, it seems to be in slightly better financial shape than the rest?

brewer12345 · 11-27-2008, 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clifp

Any opinions on DSX, it seems to be in slightly better financial shape than the rest?

A valid option, IMO. Pretty much cannot go bust, with minimal debt and decent time charter coverage.

al_bundy · 11-28-2008, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha

Ok ladies and gentlemen, I am piker compared to you guys, but I do have 4000 units and close to $10,000 in NM losses. Another $5000 or so realized loss would take my income below the threshold where I have to pay increased Medicare premiums (a back-door tax that falls only on older people with good incomes).

It seems to me that I do want to keep my shipping exposure- no sense buying high and selling low, when I know no particular reason why shipping should get much worse than is factored into NM's price.

I can get the loss I need for my objective by selling 2000 shares of NM. I could buy another 2000 units tomorrow morning, and sell 2000 just before year end, avoiding the wash sale rule. My risk is that I have somewhat more money exposed in this stock for a month.

Another idea is to sell 2000 NM, and buy a similarly safe (or similarly unsafe) shipper that is also cheap.

Any ideas as to candidates for strategy #2?

Also, will I be OK as to wash sale if I buy NM tommorrow 11/28, and sell some NM on Dec 31? Looks to me that this should be OK.

Ha

if you are going to sell wait a few months, good chance it will be selling for $5 - $8 a share soon

Dawg54 · 11-28-2008, 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by al_bundy

if you are going to sell wait a few months, good chance it will be selling for $5 - $8 a share soon

Why?

dm · 11-29-2008, 05:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg54

Why?

Yea, why?

al_bundy · 11-29-2008, 11:16 AM

quick scan of the charts

i was looking at this for the last month or so and more bullish on this before, but with the latest financials and looking at the current chart i don't want any piece of this.

$8 may be strechtching it but $5 is a good upside top target for this with a $3 to $5 range

kumquat · 11-29-2008, 11:19 AM

Again, why?

brewer12345 · 11-29-2008, 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kumquat

Again, why?

Space aliens from Uranus told him so.

Nords · 11-29-2008, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345

Space aliens from Uranus told him so.

I think it's even worse than that-- they're being trolled by a technical analyst!

al_bundy · 11-29-2008, 07:00 PM

did predict that GE would bottom out at around $15 a share when it was still at $19-$22 and there is a post of mine in the bank stocks thread saying that GS would hit $40 - $60 when it was still around $100 a share. and back when NM was around $4 i said it would bottom at around $1.89, was I wrong about that.

can't say i'm an expert, but i am outperforming the SP500 by 20% this year and learning enough everyday that i'll miss what will probably be a very vicious wipeout sometime next year or 2010

Dawg54 · 11-30-2008, 07:39 AM

Another one on the ignore list. These people who think they can predict stock prices or the future don't do much for me.

73ss454 · 11-30-2008, 09:33 AM

Hey Dawg, look at it this way. Old Al Bundy won't have as much tax loss as we do. Eat your heart out Al.

al_bundy · 11-30-2008, 09:42 AM

tax losses are a bit nostalgic, reminds me of when i started investing back in 2000. did make a small profit on Amazon that summer.

Running_Man · 12-01-2008, 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Running_Man

Day ship rates, even more for boats that are crossing through the panama canal for some reason are dropping like a stone. I have been watching the BDI index since Brewer posted the link for the site, as I find it a sensitive and very responsive economic activity indicator. It is not foolproof by any means, but a healthy economy would not have shipping rates fall 80%. It shows a drop in orders, which will eventually show up in the economic number down the road. It does not necessarily indicate that the shipping stocks are in concert with the BDI index, since much freight has been contracted for by multi-year contracts but it shows direction pretty well and the shipping stocks tend to follow. Don't see how the BDI could fall much further, but I started to think that when it hit 5000 and it's fallen 38 percent since then in a couple weeks.

What is amazing is that from Oct 1st when the BDI index had already fallen sooooo far it has fallen another 77 percent. The BDI index did not show any recovery last week during the stock and oil market rallies and instead has made new lows.

This index remains my canary for economic activity and the stock markets, it is not influenced by day traders and reflects what is actually occuring in real time. Until this shows some recovery, outlook for the shippers is disaster and based on the high correlation the BDI has had with the S&P500 this year I fear we are going to see another new low in that as well.

al_bundy · 12-01-2008, 10:18 AM

isn't the BDI heavily influenced by commodity prices and since they fell the commodity producers can now negotiate lower prices?

73ss454 · 12-10-2008, 10:17 AM

Big move by NM. Another 10 points or so and I'm even.

Dawg54 · 12-10-2008, 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 73ss454

Big move by NM. Another 10 points or so and I'm even.

Yeaaaa! Time to celebrate.

[MODERATOR EDIT]

Nords · 12-10-2008, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg54

[MODERATOR EDIT]

Good grief, Dawg, what kind of emoticon got you one of those?!?

Dawg54 · 12-10-2008, 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nords

Good grief, Dawg, what kind of emoticon got you one of those?!?

Just a girl getting a beer for me out of the frig. Oh well, I guess we don't all have the same taste.

RustyShackleford · 12-17-2008, 01:43 PM

Wow, NM is on the march these last few days. What gives ? Last time
I checked there was still a global economic recession.

11-29-2008, 11:19 AM	#327
kumquat Full time employment: Posting here. Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 864	Again, why? __________________ Life's a bitch and then you come back - Hindu proverb

11-30-2008, 07:39 AM	#331
Dawg54 Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Mississippi Posts: 3,338	Another one on the ignore list. These people who think they can predict stock prices or the future don't do much for me. __________________ Full time golf bum.......

11-27-2008, 07:31 PM	#321
clifp Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 2,338	Any opinions on DSX, it seems to be in slightly better financial shape than the rest?

11-29-2008, 11:16 AM	#326
al_bundy Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 1,430	quick scan of the charts i was looking at this for the last month or so and more bullish on this before, but with the latest financials and looking at the current chart i don't want any piece of this. $8 may be strechtching it but $5 is a good upside top target for this with a $3 to $5 range

11-29-2008, 07:00 PM	#330
al_bundy Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 1,430	did predict that GE would bottom out at around $15 a share when it was still at $19-$22 and there is a post of mine in the bank stocks thread saying that GS would hit $40 - $60 when it was still around $100 a share. and back when NM was around $4 i said it would bottom at around $1.89, was I wrong about that. can't say i'm an expert, but i am outperforming the SP500 by 20% this year and learning enough everyday that i'll miss what will probably be a very vicious wipeout sometime next year or 2010

11-30-2008, 09:33 AM	#332
73ss454 Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 1,884	Hey Dawg, look at it this way. Old Al Bundy won't have as much tax loss as we do. Eat your heart out Al.

11-30-2008, 09:42 AM	#333
al_bundy Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 1,430	tax losses are a bit nostalgic, reminds me of when i started investing back in 2000. did make a small profit on Amazon that summer.

12-01-2008, 10:18 AM	#335
al_bundy Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 1,430	isn't the BDI heavily influenced by commodity prices and since they fell the commodity producers can now negotiate lower prices?

12-10-2008, 10:17 AM	#336
73ss454 Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 1,884	Big move by NM. Another 10 points or so and I'm even.

12-17-2008, 01:43 PM	#340
RustyShackleford Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 159	Wow, NM is on the march these last few days. What gives ? Last time I checked there was still a global economic recession.

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