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Old 11-27-2008, 07:31 PM   #321
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Any opinions on DSX, it seems to be in slightly better financial shape than the rest?
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Old 11-27-2008, 08:45 PM   #322
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Any opinions on DSX, it seems to be in slightly better financial shape than the rest?
A valid option, IMO. Pretty much cannot go bust, with minimal debt and decent time charter coverage.
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Old 11-28-2008, 11:24 AM   #323
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Ok ladies and gentlemen, I am piker compared to you guys, but I do have 4000 units and close to $10,000 in NM losses. Another $5000 or so realized loss would take my income below the threshold where I have to pay increased Medicare premiums (a back-door tax that falls only on older people with good incomes).

It seems to me that I do want to keep my shipping exposure- no sense buying high and selling low, when I know no particular reason why shipping should get much worse than is factored into NM's price.

I can get the loss I need for my objective by selling 2000 shares of NM. I could buy another 2000 units tomorrow morning, and sell 2000 just before year end, avoiding the wash sale rule. My risk is that I have somewhat more money exposed in this stock for a month.

Another idea is to sell 2000 NM, and buy a similarly safe (or similarly unsafe) shipper that is also cheap.

Any ideas as to candidates for strategy #2?

Also, will I be OK as to wash sale if I buy NM tommorrow 11/28, and sell some NM on Dec 31? Looks to me that this should be OK.

Ha

if you are going to sell wait a few months, good chance it will be selling for $5 - $8 a share soon
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Old 11-28-2008, 06:12 PM   #324
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if you are going to sell wait a few months, good chance it will be selling for $5 - $8 a share soon
Why?
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Old 11-29-2008, 05:56 AM   #325
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Why?

Yea, why?
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Old 11-29-2008, 11:16 AM   #326
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quick scan of the charts

i was looking at this for the last month or so and more bullish on this before, but with the latest financials and looking at the current chart i don't want any piece of this.

$8 may be strechtching it but $5 is a good upside top target for this with a $3 to $5 range
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Old 11-29-2008, 11:19 AM   #327
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Again, why?
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Old 11-29-2008, 11:33 AM   #328
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Again, why?
Space aliens from Uranus told him so.
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Old 11-29-2008, 01:02 PM   #329
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Space aliens from Uranus told him so.
I think it's even worse than that-- they're being trolled by a technical analyst!
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Old 11-29-2008, 07:00 PM   #330
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did predict that GE would bottom out at around $15 a share when it was still at $19-$22 and there is a post of mine in the bank stocks thread saying that GS would hit $40 - $60 when it was still around $100 a share. and back when NM was around $4 i said it would bottom at around $1.89, was I wrong about that.

can't say i'm an expert, but i am outperforming the SP500 by 20% this year and learning enough everyday that i'll miss what will probably be a very vicious wipeout sometime next year or 2010
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Old 11-30-2008, 07:39 AM   #331
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Another one on the ignore list. These people who think they can predict stock prices or the future don't do much for me.
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Old 11-30-2008, 09:33 AM   #332
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Hey Dawg, look at it this way. Old Al Bundy won't have as much tax loss as we do. Eat your heart out Al.
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Old 11-30-2008, 09:42 AM   #333
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tax losses are a bit nostalgic, reminds me of when i started investing back in 2000. did make a small profit on Amazon that summer.
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Old 12-01-2008, 09:26 AM   #334
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Day ship rates, even more for boats that are crossing through the panama canal for some reason are dropping like a stone. I have been watching the BDI index since Brewer posted the link for the site, as I find it a sensitive and very responsive economic activity indicator. It is not foolproof by any means, but a healthy economy would not have shipping rates fall 80%. It shows a drop in orders, which will eventually show up in the economic number down the road. It does not necessarily indicate that the shipping stocks are in concert with the BDI index, since much freight has been contracted for by multi-year contracts but it shows direction pretty well and the shipping stocks tend to follow. Don't see how the BDI could fall much further, but I started to think that when it hit 5000 and it's fallen 38 percent since then in a couple weeks.
What is amazing is that from Oct 1st when the BDI index had already fallen sooooo far it has fallen another 77 percent. The BDI index did not show any recovery last week during the stock and oil market rallies and instead has made new lows.

This index remains my canary for economic activity and the stock markets, it is not influenced by day traders and reflects what is actually occuring in real time. Until this shows some recovery, outlook for the shippers is disaster and based on the high correlation the BDI has had with the S&P500 this year I fear we are going to see another new low in that as well.
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Old 12-01-2008, 10:18 AM   #335
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isn't the BDI heavily influenced by commodity prices and since they fell the commodity producers can now negotiate lower prices?
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Old 12-10-2008, 10:17 AM   #336
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Big move by NM. Another 10 points or so and I'm even.
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Old 12-10-2008, 06:17 PM   #337
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Big move by NM. Another 10 points or so and I'm even.
Yeaaaa! Time to celebrate.

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Old 12-10-2008, 08:15 PM   #338
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Good grief, Dawg, what kind of emoticon got you one of those?!?
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Old 12-10-2008, 11:15 PM   #339
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Good grief, Dawg, what kind of emoticon got you one of those?!?
Just a girl getting a beer for me out of the frig. Oh well, I guess we don't all have the same taste.
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Old 12-17-2008, 01:43 PM   #340
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Wow, NM is on the march these last few days. What gives ? Last time
I checked there was still a global economic recession.
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