Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 01-25-2011, 01:04 PM   #421
Full time employment: Posting here.
CCdaCE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 887
At the risk of reading financial porn beating a dead horse...

I see that shipping companies were getting cheaper today. Examples: DSX, NM. Ran across this article that attempts to explain why. Don't know if it's valid, or not, but seems to make logical sense in the Aussie sense. I'd think that emerging markets are picking back up compared to ours, or maybe it's still a question of when China will go full throttle again.

Just interesting, that's all.

-CC
__________________

__________________
"There's those thinkin' more or less, less is more, but if less is more, how you keepin' score?
It means for every point you make, your level drops. Kinda like you're startin' from the top..." "Society" - Eddie Vedder
CCdaCE is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 01-25-2011, 01:18 PM   #422
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Basically the disruptions to the Aussie export areas have thrown the dry bulk market into disarray temporarily. But all those coal fired power plants still need fuel and the world still needs steel, so when they drain out Australia you will see an absolute mess as everyone tries to ship as much as possible as quickly as possible.

The smackdown of some of these names today is that Korea Line filed for bankruptcy and they are a major charterer. EGLE in particular has a lot of exposure. NM has some exposure, but they have always had iron-clad counterparty default insurance on their charters, so all they would be on the hook for would be the insurance deductible.
__________________

__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-2011, 01:32 PM   #423
Full time employment: Posting here.
Lakedog's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 654
Brewer, what is your take on NM currently? Too soon to add more here? I've been reinvesting the divs -- the shares start to add up after a while. If they had not kept their div, I'm not sure I would have held this long. I am still in the black though since I added during the sale in the low $2s.
__________________
Lakedog is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-2011, 01:35 PM   #424
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lakedog View Post
Brewer, what is your take on NM currently? Too soon to add more here? I've been reinvesting the divs -- the shares start to add up after a while. If they had not kept their div, I'm not sure I would have held this long. I am still in the black though since I added during the sale in the low $2s.

This is a long term investment for me, so I am holding. No idea if it is too soon to add, since I think the stock was cheap at $6. None of this really makes a whole lot of difference to NM, as far as I can tell, since their charters are generally both long term and insured against default.

I also expect them to spin off the S American port operations at some point. Those are a gem.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-2011, 03:02 PM   #425
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
BUM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Mid Hudson Valley
Posts: 1,778
EGLE $4/ share ALL ABOARD!
__________________
In a panamax down by the river.
BUM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-2011, 06:32 PM   #426
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,388
I bought about $20K worth of shipping stocks (EGLE, NM, DSX, PRGN) in 2009-2010. Took a loss of about $5K and bailed out on Jan 11 after reading this article. An excerpt follows. The vision of new huge ships stretching 35 miles scared me.
While Clarkson Plc, the world’s biggest shipbroker, expects seaborne trade in the two cargoes to exceed 2 billion metric tons for the first time this year, the 7 percent increase won’t be enough to eliminate a glut. About 200 capesizes, spanning some 35 miles end-to-end, will leave shipyards this year, expanding the fleet by 18 percent, the Bloomberg survey showed.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-2011, 11:22 PM   #427
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,616
Quote:
Originally Posted by BUM View Post
EGLE $4/ share ALL ABOARD!
Holy crap, I remember in mid-2007 we were all kicking ourselves patting ourselves on the back for "selling too soon" at $25-$30/share.

I'm betting I didn't miss a 10:1 stock split, either...
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2011, 04:09 PM   #428
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
BUM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Mid Hudson Valley
Posts: 1,778
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
I bought about $20K worth of shipping stocks (EGLE, NM, DSX, PRGN) in 2009-2010. Took a loss of about $5K and bailed out on Jan 11 after reading this article. An excerpt follows. The vision of new huge ships stretching 35 miles scared me.
While Clarkson Plc, the world’s biggest shipbroker, expects seaborne trade in the two cargoes to exceed 2 billion metric tons for the first time this year, the 7 percent increase won’t be enough to eliminate a glut. About 200 capesizes, spanning some 35 miles end-to-end, will leave shipyards this year, expanding the fleet by 18 percent, the Bloomberg survey showed.
Add the expected demand subtract the ships being scrapped, net is not doom and gloom. Time will tell.
__________________
In a panamax down by the river.
BUM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-2011, 07:58 PM   #429
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,388
I hate it when I couldn't stand something no more , and bailed out at the bottom.

What if this sector comes around, now that I am out?

OK, OK, I lied to you.

I did not sell all the shipping stocks I had. I still keep NM, which I have read is the strongest of the bunch (and its relative price strength reflects that). In fact, I still have 28% gain on my lot of NM, as I started to accumulate it from 11/2008 to 3/2010. The other stocks, bought at roughly in the same time frame, gave me a loss.

I first dabbled in shipping stocks in 2007 with DRYS. I bought 150 shares in 6/2007, paying $37. Just 5 months later, the stock reached bubble territory with the price of $130 when the day rate reached $300K. People on CNBC started talking about it. So, I sold 50 shares at $126 to recover my original cost of the entire lot.

The stock started to unravel soon after that, but I did not sell the remaining 100 shares until 7/2008 at $71. In all, I netted near $8K out of this trade on DRYS, or more than doubling my investment.

I did not buy shipping stock again until the end of 2008, but decided that the days of DRYS were over, and started to accumulate other stocks. And as I have told the story earlier, none made me money but NM. But when the earlier gain on DRYS was added, I still have a net gain on this dabble into a sector I still know little about.

When I play with risky individual stocks like this, I keep my involvement to just a fraction of 1% of portfolio in each position. Therefore, when it works out, I do not strike it rich, but do not lose my shirt otherwise. I do not have more than 2% in any single stock. Larger positions are usually in ETFs for diversity.

It's just a thing I do for fun. I fancy myself being my own MF manager, and yet I still have only around 100 stocks. Wellesley has something like near 700 positions, if I remember correctly.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-03-2011, 12:28 PM   #430
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Punta Gorda, FL
Posts: 664
How do things look now?
__________________
dm is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-03-2011, 01:03 PM   #431
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,380
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
I fancy myself being my own MF manager, and yet I still have only around 100 stocks. Wellesley has something like near 700 positions, if I remember correctly.
You "manage" a portfolio of 100 individual securities?

I couldn't even remember the names or businesses of 100 securities, let alone any other information about them. I usually have 10 to a max of 20, though I may have fewer when I am more concentrated in cash.

I usually have minimal turnover, though I believe I turned over almost the entire lot in 2008

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-03-2011, 01:06 PM   #432
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,380
Quote:
Originally Posted by dm View Post
How do things look now?
I know NM has been making new 52 week lows, and is back near its lows of the credit crash, but I have no idea how the business is going, or if there are any real problems.

My first requirement is cheap; so NM meets one important test.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-03-2011, 01:26 PM   #433
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
I know NM has been making new 52 week lows, and is back near its lows of the credit crash, but I have no idea how the business is going, or if there are any real problems.

My first requirement is cheap; so NM meets one important test.

Ha
Only thing that has really changed for them in the last month is investor sentiment.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2011, 12:05 PM   #434
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Brat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 5,913
What is the difference between NM & NMM? Which would be the smarter buy?
__________________
Duck bjorn.
Brat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2011, 02:28 PM   #435
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brat View Post
What is the difference between NM & NMM? Which would be the smarter buy?
NMM is an mlp that owns a fleet of ships with long term charters and modest leverage. It is a cashflow vehicle, it is generally overvalued vs. NM, and as General partner NM gets an increased percentage of its dataflow as distributions rise. NM is a holding company owning stakes in NM, NNA, a south American logistics business which will eventually be ipo'd, and its own fleet. It has more debt than NMM but is way cheaper. I own NM over NMM. The CEO owns about a quarter of NM but a tiny bit of NMM. I think she is one of the sharpest edges in her industry, so I am happy to ape her investments.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2011, 02:33 PM   #436
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Brat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 5,913
Great to hear that a gal can handle the old salts!!!
__________________
Duck bjorn.
Brat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2011, 02:51 PM   #437
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brat View Post
Great to hear that a gal can handle the old salts!!!
She sometimes gets short shrift due to a thick accent, but she is a lawyer, was an investment banker and has spent 20 years in the industry. If I were not settled I would see if she would hire me. I have spoken to several of her exec team and they are uniformly sharp.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2011, 07:06 AM   #438
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,450
So with all of the turmoil over the Greeks debt, what is the odds that various Greek shipping companies will be affect by a default? I see that NM still paid its dividend is that likely to continue. Any thoughts about EGLE at $1.71 it seems to me roughly 1/6 of the price I last traded it. I know the company is pretty highly leveraged but can it still service its debt?
__________________
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2011, 09:52 AM   #439
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
I would pick the names that appear most likely to make it. NM, NMM dsx and perhaps gnk I a Lao really like product tankers from here, especially nna and stng . I f you are patient you can bit nna first mortgage bonds at a double digit yield.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2011, 10:04 AM   #440
Full time employment: Posting here.
CCdaCE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 887
I couldn't take it any more. I plopped out my whopping $610 and bought 200 shares of NM at $3.05. Mad money. Lets see where this ride takes me.

Maybe their dividend gets paid today and I should've waited. But, I figured it was after the record date, so, what the hey...

This presentation sold me, too.

-CC
__________________

__________________
"There's those thinkin' more or less, less is more, but if less is more, how you keepin' score?
It means for every point you make, your level drops. Kinda like you're startin' from the top..." "Society" - Eddie Vedder
CCdaCE is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Shipping biodiesel to europe? cute fuzzy bunny Other topics 10 07-26-2008 02:15 PM
Oh , follow the bouncing baby! newguy88 Other topics 1 05-01-2008 07:20 AM
individual stocks vs index funds,stocks poor choice mathjak107 FIRE and Money 31 09-12-2006 01:12 AM
EGLE and other shipping stocks eyetri2 FIRE and Money 8 03-27-2006 11:54 AM
Customs questions for shipping to Germany soupcxan Other topics 4 08-31-2005 08:46 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:46 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.