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Old 07-11-2007, 04:00 PM   #41
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On selling EGLE ...Way to go guys! What a run! I was all set to post a snippy retort reminding you Brewer that you were going to sell when s o m e d a y EGLE should hit $25. Well here it is and you pulled the trigger. I was busy all day and just now saw the day's activity.

I'll sell off what I have left this week, if not tomorrow

What do we do for an encore? Just relax and be happy?...nah.
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Old 07-11-2007, 04:08 PM   #42
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On selling EGLE ...Way to go guys! What a run! I was all set to post a snippy retort reminding you Brewer that you were going to sell when s o m e d a y EGLE should hit $25. Well here it is and you pulled the trigger. I was busy all day and just now saw the day's activity.

I'll sell off what I have left this week, if not tomorrow

What do we do for an encore? Just relax and be happy?...nah.
Think about KRE. Retail banks are the cheapest they have been in years (maybe a decade?). KRE is a retail bank ETF. That way you would avoid single name risk and still take advantage of the sector. You could pick out individual names as well, but the whole sector is so cheap that I think the ETF is not a bad way to go.

Also looking at junk bonds, but in no rush. Currently junk derivatives have blown out wider than the cash bonds, so either the derivatives are over-reacting, or the bonds will be selling off soon. Not so sure which is which, and since their will be LBOs that blow up in spectacular fashion some time in the next few years, there will be plenty of opportunities to buy junk on the cheap, I suspect.

Love the signature. I saw this on a yahoo board and thought it was funny:

"
Was out on the Bay the other day when a bulker went by under the Sunshine Skyway bridge heade to port. It took about an hour from the time I first saw it on the horizon to the time it went out of sight. In that hour, assuming it was a Panamax on spot, it made 2500.00 as it sailed by....I commented to the guys I was with, explaining the rates bulkers command now and are likely to see later this year and well, they scoffed. Now they don't, they are invested. Even at this point, new money is probably a good idea. "
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Old 07-11-2007, 04:39 PM   #43
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Think about KRE. Retail banks are the cheapest they have been in years (maybe a decade?). KRE is a retail bank ETF. That way you would avoid single name risk and still take advantage of the sector. You could pick out individual names as well, but the whole sector is so cheap that I think the ETF is not a bad way to go.

Also looking at junk bonds, but in no rush. Currently junk derivatives have blown out wider than the cash bonds, so either the derivatives are over-reacting, or the bonds will be selling off soon. Not so sure which is which, and since their will be LBOs that blow up in spectacular fashion some time in the next few years, there will be plenty of opportunities to buy junk on the cheap, I suspect.
AFN needs pumping up, not that I have any interest in it.
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Old 07-11-2007, 08:44 PM   #44
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Think about KRE. Retail banks are the cheapest they have been in years (maybe a decade?). KRE is a retail bank ETF. That way you would avoid single name risk and still take advantage of the sector. You could pick out individual names as well, but the whole sector is so cheap that I think the ETF is not a bad way to go.
Well, I'm impressed. That is one sucky bunch of beaten-down banks, an ETF not even its mother could love. And paying almost a 5% dividend on a 0.35% expense ratio, too! How many utilities or other sector ETFs can make that claim?

On one hand we have a large-cap blue-chip dividend fund like DVY, which I wouldn't mind boosting in our asset allocation if it goes on sale a bit more, but which also has a slightly lower dividend rate and a slightly higher expense ratio for its stability. On the other hand we have KRE with its "margin of safety" and its volatility.

Choices, choices. I suspect we won't have to make a decision before October...
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Old 07-12-2007, 06:30 AM   #45
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AFN needs pumping up, not that I have any interest in it.
I own a bit and am sorely tempted, but I am already heavily levered to the whole mortgage market. I may well buy some long-dated calls struck at $7.50. If AFN does anything other than circle the bowl in the next 6 months, I would expect a recovery. If it goes kerblooey, well, the option premia is pretty small.
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Old 07-12-2007, 08:36 AM   #46
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And paying almost a 5% dividend on a 0.35% expense ratio, too!
The fund's page says a 3.2% yield, Yahoo says 3.13%. The last distribution was 5% annually, but the first several distributions were smaller. Maybe it was ramping up after formation or there were special dividends last time? Anyway, the index itself (KBW Regional Banking Index) supposedly has a yield of 3.02%:
ETF SSgA Funds: KBW Regional Banking, KRE - Index Detail

Anyway, I like the looks of this ETF. I've reviewed a lot of smaller banks in the last six months, so about half of these companies are familiar to me and most seem like pretty good buys.
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Old 07-12-2007, 09:36 AM   #47
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Anyway, I like the looks of this ETF. I've reviewed a lot of smaller banks in the last six months, so about half of these companies are familiar to me and most seem like pretty good buys.
Brewer's done a very good job of finding my weak spot-- a basket of undervalued stocks...

Of course our ER portfolio is already heavily tilted toward financials, but they don't seem to be overvalued. And after having waded through the spreadsheets of potential disasters like First Fed I was wondering how to evaluate a retail bank. A whole ETF of them doesn't seem much easier!
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Old 07-13-2007, 01:22 PM   #48
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Just blasted out 2/3 of my DSX at 25.95. Hanging onto the last 500 shares until 8/16, since that is where they go LT.
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Old 07-13-2007, 01:31 PM   #49
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Just blasted out 2/3 of my DSX at 25.95. Hanging onto the last 500 shares until 8/16, since that is where they go LT.
All of my DSX profits were short-term, and how, but they were generated by liquidating a Nortel position.

I'm still smiling.
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Old 07-13-2007, 01:35 PM   #50
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All of my DSX profits were short-term, and how, but they were generated by liquidating a Nortel position.

I'm still smiling.
I would have liked to hold, but this has moved awfully far, awfully fast. I also have heard rumors that someone has agreed to pay $550MM for three capesizes. If true, it is an absurd price and it better not be DSX paying it. Unless they levered the crap out of the company, they would have to issue upwards of 20MM shares to finance it.
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Old 07-13-2007, 03:07 PM   #51
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I dumped EGLE and DSX the other day. No regrets. Nice profit on both. Thank you very much Brewer!
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Old 07-13-2007, 04:54 PM   #52
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I dumped EGLE and DSX the other day. No regrets. Nice profit on both. Thank you very much Brewer!
Same here. Sold all today. Had a terrific long term run with EGLE and profitable quickies with DSX NM EXM and ONAV

DW and I will hoist a glass to Brewer tonight. Were shootin' the woiks at the Chinese Buffet tonight....mmmmm MSG.


Somebody said that his might not be a bad time for new money to enter into the drybulk sector. We'll see, otherwise this thread is headed for Davy Jone's locker.
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Old 07-13-2007, 06:48 PM   #53
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AFN needs pumping up, not that I have any interest in it.

BTW, I picked up some calls on this thing today. Feb 7.50s for $.85 a pop. We'll see.
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Old 07-14-2007, 02:39 PM   #54
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Just blasted out 2/3 of my DSX at 25.95. Hanging onto the last 500 shares until 8/16, since that is where they go LT.
That's my quandry too ! I'd love to take all the profit NOW, but
I don't go long-term until Halloween day. Perhaps I'll put in a
stop-loss order at 24 or so.

Perhaps the lesson is that this sort of short-term speculative move
should be done within some sort of tax-sheltered account. Maybe
I'll buy some KRE in my Roth ...
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Old 07-14-2007, 04:18 PM   #55
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Never let the tax tail wag the investment dog.
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Old 07-14-2007, 05:09 PM   #56
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Sold my EGLE and part of my FRO. I have a trailing stop on DSX and Im letting my SFL ride.
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Old 07-16-2007, 04:26 PM   #57
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Out of EGLE at 25.32 today!
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Old 07-17-2007, 12:51 PM   #58
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Wow... DSX up 7% today...

Put a stop loss in to keep the gain if it goes down...


Thanks Brewer...
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Old 07-17-2007, 01:04 PM   #59
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Wow... DSX up 7% today...

Put a stop loss in to keep the gain if it goes down...
Sh*tfire ! Time to modify the $24 stop loss I did yesterday.

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Thanks Brewer...
Amen !
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Old 07-17-2007, 01:08 PM   #60
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These stocks are getting fully valued. For them to go much higher requires day rates to stay very high for a long time and/or for the market to award them a valuation/multiple it has not done so, well, ever.

I like the industry and story, and it could certainly go a lot higher. But it looks like the momentum crowd of the clueless has swarmed in, so things can get very volatile/unpredictable as the last few days of trading have shown. Caveat emptor.
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