Follow Shipping Stocks?

[JohnEyles]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Texas Proud Wow... DSX up 7% today... Put a stop loss in to keep the gain if it goes down...

Sh*tfire ! Time to modify the $24 stop loss I did yesterday.

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Thanks Brewer...

Amen !

[brewer12345]

These stocks are getting fully valued. For them to go much higher requires day rates to stay very high for a long time and/or for the market to award them a valuation/multiple it has not done so, well, ever.

I like the industry and story, and it could certainly go a lot higher. But it looks like the momentum crowd of the clueless has swarmed in, so things can get very volatile/unpredictable as the last few days of trading have shown. Caveat emptor.

[Texas Proud]

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345 These stocks are getting fully valued. For them to go much higher requires day rates to stay very high for a long time and/or for the market to award them a valuation/multiple it has not done so, well, ever. I like the industry and story, and it could certainly go a lot higher. But it looks like the momentum crowd of the clueless has swarmed in, so things can get very volatile/unpredictable as the last few days of trading have shown. Caveat emptor.

That is why I keep uping my stop loss order... today I put it higher than the close for yesterday... and if it goes up tomorrow... up again...

I am willing to take my gain and run, but if it keeps going up I want to stay on for the ride..

[eridanus]

I sold my DSX about two weeks ago. I received one distribution and a few points profit. Thanks from me too, brewer.

I'm busy cycling out of my other individual securities. I've sold STON and PAA, but I'm still short DHI and long DYN.

[Texas Proud]

I hope this is a daily post!!!!

Up another $1.90 so far today.... for DSX...

Keep increasing that stop loss!!!


Edit.... well, I am out... took my profits and ran....

NOW... what is the next one Brew

[Salaryman]

Bought DSX at $11.68 and never looked back.
Can't think of another company that can provide 17% dividend rate.

[BUM]

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Originally Posted by Salaryman Bought DSX at $11.68 and never looked back.

Sold DSX EGLE NM GMR and ONAV and never looked back. Half the fun is not having to watch them any more.

[Brat]

I sold my DSX at 26.11. I more often get into trouble not capturing profits trying to max them.

The declaration of dividend is slated for the end of next week as I recall. Brewer, where to you think a re-entry point might be?

The current downdraft in the market doesn't reflect the fundamentals in the demand for dry shippers and the commodities they transport. Is there a better play out there?

[brewer12345]

NM would be my pick. I own a ton of it, although I have sold some. Getting hammered today. I estimate break-up value of the company at about $14 and they have (IMO) one of the sharpest and deepest management teams in the industry.

I think it is a $20 stock within the next year or two, maybe more if they use their warchest of cash to pull off an accretive transaction like the one they did in February.

[Texas Proud]

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345 NM would be my pick. I own a ton of it, although I have sold some. Getting hammered today. I estimate break-up value of the company at about $14 and they have (IMO) one of the sharpest and deepest management teams in the industry. I think it is a $20 stock within the next year or two, maybe more if they use their warchest of cash to pull off an accretive transaction like the one they did in February.

Wow... up about 10% today... thanks for the tip... I picked some up and then it started to drop... but picked up a bit more cheaper... glad I did...

[kumquat]

Time to get back in to DSX in low 20's? I just might bite.

[Brat]

I often listen to BBC at night. There was a comment that capesize rates just hit record highs.

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brat I often listen to BBC at night. There was a comment that capesize rates just hit record highs.

I will go you one (two, actually) better:

1) Dry bulk rates are so high that people who ship grain are starting to seriously consider doing so via shipping containers rather than in bulkers. Considering how much trouble and expense it would be to do this vs. a bulker, that says a lot about demand.

2) Newbuild prices have risen so high that Maersk just accepted an order to build a capesize at its European yards. Considering that the last bulker built in Europe was in 1992, prices have really gone off the charts to make the expensive European yards profitable.

I have no idea why bulker stocks are not 50% higher than where they currently are. I suspect this will happen in the next 6 to 12 months.

[brewer12345]

And I just sold some September $25 puts on DSX. If I get hit, I will be into the stock for $23.15 all-in, which would be fine by me.

[clifp]

I sold DSX at 27.8 a couple of weeks ago. If it gets back in the low 20s I think I'd be tempted to get more.

Brewer as company (ignoring the price) which of these shipping stocks do you like the best or worse.
EGLE
DSX
RAMS
SSW
TGP

I guess I am basically asking which are the least and most risky.

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by clifp I sold DSX at 27.8 a couple of weeks ago. If it gets back in the low 20s I think I'd be tempted to get more. Brewer as company (ignoring the price) which of these shipping stocks do you like the best or worse. EGLE DSX RAMS SSW TGP I guess I am basically asking which are the least and most risky.

Can't comment too intelligibly on TGP or RAMS since I do not follow the tanker or LNG tanker markets that closely.

SSW is pretty low risk simply because they lock up the charters on their ships forever. If you are thinking about them, I would set them next to DAC and see which you like better.

In dry bulk, I think EGLE now has deal risk, but the nature of the charters on the new fleet they bought pretty much wipes out the risk of the new debt they will be taking on. I need to find time to do more modelling on the name, though. I bought some $30 calls on this name in the past week.

DSX is attractive if it drops much more. They have exposure to spot rates, which are going ape poopy. The downside is the volatility caused by their frequent equity issuances (AKA buying opportunities). I am quite keen to see if they change their debt tolerance or funding startegy going forward, as EGLE seems to have done. I still own a smidge of this name, and I sold some Sept. $25 puts for a fat $1.85 premium last week.

The two other names I really like in the sector are QMAR and NM. Both have large fleets that are fixed on time charters, and both are trading well below my estimate of liquidation value). NM also owns a port in South America that they will probably eventually sell or spin off, and has a unit that does freight derivatives trading. NM is (by a very wide margin) my largest position. I picked up some $20 calls on QMAR today.

Day rates have hit records every day for a week plus. I saw reports of recent 1 year charters of a panamax for $60k a day and a capesize for $100k a day. Those are astonishing numbers compared to where day rates were a year ago.

[clifp]

I was channel surfing past CNBC, when I noticed that Cramer was talking about shipping stocks. I paused briefly while he recommend Paragon Shipping PRGN as the shipping stock for older more conservative investors. He highly recommend our old friend Dianne Shipping DSX for more agressive investors. Both stocks immediately leaped up a couple of bucks.

Now Cramer may very well be right and Bulk shipping rates may continue to head up and take the stocks up with them. But I personally like DSX a lot better when it was an $18 stock with an 11% dividend than a $35 stock with a 5.5% yield. I can get CD with yields that high, I couldn't get 11% CD back this last spring.

I do have a surefire way of making money buy stocks right before Cramer touts them on air.

[twaddle]

The sector has been pretty bubbly amazing lately. I took a position in DRYS 6 weeks ago, and it's already doubled since then. It's been a 10-bagger over the last year! I'll be sad when the party ends.

[brewer12345]

IMO, Cramer = Assclown, pure and simple. But even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while. Even at currently elevated levels, dry bulk stocks do not reflect current charter rates. The ships that DSX announced that they bought have 5 year charters on them that will generate revenue almost equal to the lofty purchase price over the term of the charters. After taht, they wikll have two paid-for ships with 20 years of life left. The question is how long these charter rates will persist.

Still have a little piece of DSX, and some EGLE calls. Balls deep in NM. Since QMAR put itself up for sale, NM is now the cheapest bulker out there. I estimate break-up value at no less than $18 a share, and I think the stock is worth $22 to $25.

[Gumby]

Holding EGLE and NM. Also holding NAT (oil tankers) at $37 basis and thinking of "jumping ship" so to speak.