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Nords · 11-19-2007, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345

UM, I think STON is in bargain territory again also, if you want to scratch that itch.

Superior Industrial (SUP) has also been getting hammered by gloomy automaker forecasts.

It's like July 2006 all over again.

If we're already fully invested, is this when we're supposed to start buying on margin?

unclemick · 11-20-2007, 08:54 AM

okie dokie - got STON on my add to list for Christmas.

heh heh heh -

brewer12345 · 11-20-2007, 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nords

Superior Industrial (SUP) has also been getting hammered by gloomy automaker forecasts.

It's like July 2006 all over again.

If we're already fully invested, is this when we're supposed to start buying on margin?

I am generally unwilling to go on margin for anything. I tend to invest in risky stuff, and leverage would make the volatility potentially crushing.

Having said that, I will generally go out on a limb using options for leverage purposes. At least that way I limit the potential damage that can be done to me. And options trading has been very profitable for me overall.

I think the market is getting sold by people who are doing forced liquidations. They sell what they can sell regardless of whether its is a good price.

dm · 11-20-2007, 02:18 PM

Well I bought some NM @ 14 . Not alot but Ive owned DSX and EGLE in the past and done OK with them so we will see how it goes.

twaddle · 11-20-2007, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345

I think the market is getting sold by people who are doing forced liquidations. They sell what they can sell regardless of whether its is a good price.

You think so? I watch the action on the shippers once in a while, and I almost never see large blocks go through. It's just the retail mo-mo crowd as far as I can tell.

brewer12345 · 11-20-2007, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by twaddle

You think so? I watch the action on the shippers once in a while, and I almost never see large blocks go through. It's just the retail mo-mo crowd as far as I can tell.

I think the momos are definately in some of the shipping stocks (DRYS, EXM and DSX for sure). But I see everything getting sold regardless of price or prospects, and I know what is going on in the bond market (very illiquid, low marks) and the mortgage backed market (frozen, bend over of you need to sell). Given taht funds have to meet redemptions regardless of what the market is doing, they have t o sell something. Can't sell bonds or asset backeds, so they pound equities. That goes for shippiers as well as everything else.

Does it make any sense for DRYS to trade at 4X next year's earnings? Not that I can see. Make any sense to sell off NM when they have next year's charters almost completely sewn up and even got a AA rated insurer to guarantee the charters? Nope. But we gotta meet redemptions, so get back in there and sell!

**Gumby** · 11-20-2007, 06:33 PM

I am thinking of tax loss harvesting in NAT (I'm in at a basis of 37) and investing in NM at these levels.

Dawg52 · 11-20-2007, 08:50 PM

Picked up a dab of EGLE at $25.50 today. 7.5% dividend not bad.

brewer12345 · 11-21-2007, 06:37 AM

Of course, the risk to these companies is that the world goes into a disastrous recession and demand for everything plunges. But I guess shippers are not t he only ones at risk for that...

If QMAR gets down to 20, it will start to look pretty attractive, IMO. Not interested in it north of 20 because if no take-out offer emerges it will drop pretty quickly. But at 20 and below, I think no offer will be fully priced in.

brewer12345 · 11-25-2007, 05:29 PM

Heheheheheh...

New fun fact: a consortium of Chinese steel producers along with the Chinese gummint has decided to counter BHP's bid for Rio with their own cash offer. Now how exactly were you guys planning on getting all that ore from Brazil to China? Bet you could complete the vertical integration pretty nicely by buying a publicly traded bulker for less than their fleet is worth.

katwoman · 11-26-2007, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345

Heheheheheh...

New fun fact: a consortium of Chinese steel producers along with the Chinese gummint has decided to counter BHP's bid for Rio with their own cash offer. Now how exactly were you guys planning on getting all that ore from Brazil to China? Bet you could complete the vertical integration pretty nicely by buying a publicly traded bulker for less than their fleet is worth.

Honestly, you are a joy to read.

BTW, NM has come down to levels I can stomach. Just had a CD mature so I'm thinking.......

brewer12345 · 11-27-2007, 08:14 AM

Looks like China has denied the rumor. I think the potential sale of QMAR will be telling if it materializes.

Swapping a CD for NM? That's a big step up in risk/volatility. Nothink wrong with NM (IMO, of course), but be careful and avoid taking on more risk than you can handle. NM is very volatile despite its secured revenue stream.

dm · 12-26-2007, 10:31 AM

I bought some NM @ $14 and I bought some more at $11.60. I hope I don't buy more at $10.00. I don't have a big stake in it. This is just my high risk money. It does move around alot.

brewer12345 · 12-26-2007, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dm

I bought some NM @ $14 and I bought some more at $11.60. I hope I don't buy more at $10.00. I don't have a big stake in it. This is just my high risk money. It does move around alot.

It is curious how volatile the stock is in day to day trading. After all, this is a company that has over 90% of its fleet days already booked at fixed prices for all of 2008 and takes pains to enter into long term charters for ships that won't even hit the water for another 18 to 24 months. They just got upgraded by S&P for stable earnings and reduced financial leverage, too. I think this is one case where looking through the day to day volatility to the underlying operations makes a lot of sense.

dm · 01-09-2008, 12:41 PM

Well the shipping stocks look like they are getting hammered again. I bought back some DSX today and EGLE and NM are down also. That $10 limit order on NM may get filled yet.

terminator · 01-09-2008, 01:59 PM

Oh, definitely buy the shipping stocks now. I've been paying close attention to the news and I understand they will be bringing huge loads of apples (and barrels) to the U.S. for sale on street corners.

ziggy29 · 01-09-2008, 02:13 PM

The problem is that some of the names in this sector (such as DRYS and DSX) were pure momentum plays all the way up until the end of October. Many of the longs were pure momentum players and not long-term oriented. So when a few people started selling, it triggered a wave of selling, perhaps aided with one trailing stop after another being hit.

From a valuation standpoint some of them are looking attractive again.