Follow Shipping Stocks?

[brewer12345]

NM has finally taken off.

Still cheap, IMO.

 

[katwoman]

Still cheap, IMO.

Really? It was on my watchlist and I thought I waited too long.

 

[brewer12345]

Really? It was on my watchlist and I thought I waited too long.

I think it is worth low 20s.

 

[clifp]

I was channel surfing past CNBC, when I noticed that Cramer was talking about shipping stocks. I paused briefly while he recommend Paragon Shipping PRGN as the shipping stock for older more conservative investors. He highly recommend our old friend Dianne Shipping DSX for more agressive investors. Both stocks immediately leaped up a couple of bucks.

Now Cramer may very well be right and Bulk shipping rates may continue to head up and take the stocks up with them. But I personally like DSX a lot better when it was an $18 stock with an 11% dividend than a $35 stock with a 5.5% yield. I can get CD with yields that high, I couldn't get 11% CD back this last spring.

I do have a surefire way of making money buy stocks right before Cramer touts them on air.

 

[twaddle]

The sector has been pretty [-]bubbly[/-] amazing lately. I took a position in DRYS 6 weeks ago, and it's already doubled since then. It's been a 10-bagger over the last year! I'll be sad when the party ends.

 

[brewer12345]

IMO, Cramer = Assclown, pure and simple. But even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while. Even at currently elevated levels, dry bulk stocks do not reflect current charter rates. The ships that DSX announced that they bought have 5 year charters on them that will generate revenue almost equal to the lofty purchase price over the term of the charters. After taht, they wikll have two paid-for ships with 20 years of life left. The question is how long these charter rates will persist.

Still have a little piece of DSX, and some EGLE calls. Balls deep in NM. Since QMAR put itself up for sale, NM is now the cheapest bulker out there. I estimate break-up value at no less than $18 a share, and I think the stock is worth $22 to $25.

 

[Gumby]

Holding EGLE and NM. Also holding NAT (oil tankers) at $37 basis and thinking of "jumping ship" so to speak.

 

[brewer12345]

Dunno what to tell you about the oil tankers, Gumby. Asset values remain high, but charter rates have been in the dumps for a while. But the stocks ave been beaten down so much that any turnaround in day rates will really translate to better results for shareholders.

BTW, anyone have an opinion on ACLI or KEX? Seems like KEX is living the big pimpin' lifestyle courtesy of ethanol while ACLI could offer opportunities for big gains if the dry bulk barge cycle heats up.

 

[vvsonikvv]

Hmm, there was a decent drop on market open this morning on a lot of the shipping companies.

Are these stocks getting too hot?

 

[brewer12345]

The fundamentals for the dry bulk guys are still extremely strong. This is just a knee jerk reaction by idiot momentum traders.

 

[JohnEyles]

NM is now the cheapest bulker out there. I estimate break-up value at no less than $18 a share, and I think the stock is worth $22 to $25.

Not to be a dumb-ass, but what do you mean by the "break-up value" ?

 

[brewer12345]

Break-up value = sell all the ships and other assets, pay off all the debt, and distribute the proceeds to shareholders.

 

[brewer12345]

Those of us who own shares of NM live in interesting times. After the close on Friday, NM filed this: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1415921/000095013607007266/file1.htm

It creates an MLP that NM will own the GP and 42% LP interests of and dumps 9 ships plus an option for a tenth into the partnership. In addition to the 42% retained LP interest, NM will get roughly $355MM in cash from this deal. The MLP is structured to spit out a qualified dividend yield of about 7%, with distributions hopefully rising in the future. Otherwise, the partnership has features typical of MLPs.

The MLP will operate panamax and capesizes with charters of 3 years length or more, and will have right of first refusal on any pana or cape NM wants to buy and any 3 year or longer charter NM wishes to enter into.

I think this is a brilliant move by NM, and it illustrates why I thinkthe lady who runs the thing is perhaps the sharpest CEO in the industry. By doing this deal, NM raises a wad of cash (more than sufficient to pay off all their bank debt if they wish), locks in much of the value of the ships it is transfering, retains a lot of the upside of these ships, and has a relatively inexpensive source of funds for future fleet expansion via further offerings of partnership units. This looks something similar to Ship Finance Limited (SFL), although focussed solely on larger bulkers.

I like the deal, assuming it goes through as contemplated. Good for NM shareholders and should be interesting to see. NM also announced they will release earnings on Tuesday, and I expect to hear something more about the potential spin-off of the Uruguayan port subsidiary.

 

[Texas Proud]

Brewer...

THANKS big time... I picked some up and have traded on the ups and downs on this stock.... but continue to hold.. also bought some for my mom who likes to hold for a long time...

Let me know if you know of something else that is even close to this one...

 

[brewer12345]

In retrospect, ANW was obviously a winner, but I just never had the time to do the due diligence.

 

[Dawg52]

I estimate break-up value at no less than $18 a share, and I think the stock is worth $22 to $25.

You still like it up to the above range? Sounds like this may be one to hold for awhile.

 

[brewer12345]

I own more than I should (20+% of my port). Ain't selling for less than 20 and when I do I might just write some covered calls for the absurdly fat premiums available. On friday you could write march 20s for more than $2 a share.

 

[Dawg52]

Well.........up a buck today. Very nice.

 

[brewer12345]

Well.........up a buck today. Very nice.

And how about after-hours trades? $19.50 OK by you?

Heh.

 

[Texas Proud]

And how about after-hours trades? $19.50 OK by you?

Heh.

OK "buy" me I added to my holding early this morning...

But my gold mining stock was up 10% today, so I am happy with that also.. heck, my testosterone account is doing well, starting to make me think that I am 'smart', but I know luck when I see it, but I also know to keep it going also...

 

[Dawg52]

And how about after-hours trades? $19.50 OK by you?

Heh.

Hey, what kind of crap did you get me into? Gave it all back today. You must have unloaded all yours today and the market couldn't handle all the available stock.

Just kidding of course.

 

[REWahoo]

Hey, what kind of crap did you get me into?

Interesting that this is the response Brewer gets when one of his "picks" goes south. Whaddya bet if it turns out to be a multi-bagger the comment will be something on the order of "Look what a great stockpicker I am!"

 

[brewer12345]

Hey, what kind of crap did you get me into? Gave it all back today. You must have unloaded all yours today and the market couldn't handle all the available stock.

Just kidding of course.

Heh, holy crap! I think every momentum trader in the world decided to get out at the same time, plus the shorts piled on. Poof! Silly, short term over reaction, IMO. Still, these names gave up, what, a week's worth of gains?

I am hypothesizing, but I think what happened is this:

The BDI was down 1.5% today, but peeling the onion, teh cape index was down a lot and the panas and supras were up. This spooked the shipping derivative market, which knocked the 2008 futures for capes and panas down a good bit today. Word leaked out and all the mo-mo traders that only know the ticker and maybe the industry the company is in started pounding out shares. Shorts jumped in, since there is no uptick rule any more. Down we go. Every name in the sector got hammered.

If this is simply a foolish short term scalded cat move and the underlying physical demand for ships is there, then all of this is a tempest in a teapot. Its only "real" if the Chinese, Koreans, Indians, etc. are going to reduce their purchases/imports of iron ore, coal, grain, etc. I think its the former, but I guess we'll see.

Frustrating to watch this happen just as NM releases blowout earnings and other great news, but that's life I guess.

 

[Dawg52]

Interesting that this is the response Brewer gets when one of his "picks" goes south. Whaddya bet if it turns out to be a multi-bagger the comment will be something on the order of "What a great stockpicker I am!"

You did see "just kidding of course".

 

[twaddle]

In at 16 with my go-go mo-mo adrenaline dough.