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Old 11-13-2008, 02:05 PM   #61
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very good chance capitulation was probably on Oct10th

very common for the real bottom to come after the spectacular day with heavy volume that everyone expects and the real bottom to be on lower volume and lower vix. just like 2002
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Old 11-13-2008, 02:06 PM   #62
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going to go out on a limb and say GE will bottom out around $14 or $15
good chance i came close
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Old 11-13-2008, 02:15 PM   #63
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Old 11-13-2008, 02:18 PM   #64
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I am pretty sure we will not see a "traditional capitulation" in this market, in the form of a wave of high volume selling. I am seeing the articles that recent selling is no longer forced margin call selling from traders and redemption from hedge funds.

Now we are continuing to see retail investors throw in the towel, but I think we are seeing fatigue and exhaustion set in and no longer pure panic. We have already seen the profiling of people abandoning equities which is the bear equivalent of day traders and 75 year old CD investors buying Pets.com

My form of capitulation is watching all these super cheap stocks out there and thinking that's nice but I am not going to buy any more. I am beginning to appreciate why they called the 1930s the great depression.
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Old 11-13-2008, 02:58 PM   #65
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Old 11-13-2008, 03:50 PM   #66
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Hey FD, you said a few weeks ago you were putting your clients in at 19. How much did they make today. heh
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Old 11-13-2008, 03:55 PM   #67
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I bought a few shares of GE today at 14.98 but this still does not come close to make me even in my overall shares. The market is simply nuts these days, down 300 at one point and then closed up 552.
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Old 11-13-2008, 03:56 PM   #68
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Old 11-13-2008, 05:05 PM   #69
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I hope I am right. I scooped up about 10,000 shares of GE or clients today........
We all have opinions, but I'm curious why you would put your clients in GE instead of similarly cheap "industrial" companies like UTX, ITW and EMR (to name a few) that don't have the financial risk that GE does.
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Old 11-13-2008, 05:49 PM   #70
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If I were your client, I would not appreciate you publicly discussing what you purchased for me today, and would probably fire you if I found out. There is this concept called "confidentiality" that some people still value. You might look into it.
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Old 11-13-2008, 07:31 PM   #71
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We all have opinions, but I'm curious why you would put your clients in GE instead of similarly cheap "industrial" companies like UTX, ITW and EMR (to name a few) that don't have the financial risk that GE does.
I already have some of those. There are times to buy certain blue chips instead of waiting. When GE goes back to $20 or so, it will attract buyers. I have plenty of PG, TYC, BP, JNJ, PFE, CPB, MMM, AAPL, etc.
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Old 11-13-2008, 07:36 PM   #72
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If I were your client, I would not appreciate you publicly discussing what you purchased for me today, and would probably fire you if I found out. There is this concept called "confidentiality" that some people still value. You might look into it.
Get up out of the wrong side of the bed?
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Old 11-13-2008, 08:57 PM   #73
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I missed the reasoning, why do people keep highlighting October 10 as a probable capitulation date? I take it that it was the low point?
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Old 11-13-2008, 09:12 PM   #74
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If I were your client, I would not appreciate you publicly discussing what you purchased for me today, and would probably fire you if I found out. There is this concept called "confidentiality" that some people still value. You might look into it.
Ok how is what FD is doing any different than a fund manager/financial adviser etc going on CNBC and saying we bought XYZ for our fund/clients.

FD's client are anonymous how is this possibly harmful to them. If anything it is beneficial, after all maybe Buffett is reading the boards and thinking about retirement, and decide Finance Dude is a smart guy, and decide it is time to buy a couple of billion of GE stock... Ok a bit of long shot but...
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Old 11-13-2008, 09:22 PM   #75
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I already have some of those. There are times to buy certain blue chips instead of waiting. When GE goes back to $20 or so, it will attract buyers. I have plenty of PG, TYC, BP, JNJ, PFE, CPB, MMM, AAPL, etc.
I assume you already have some GE too, so I guess I don't see why you would chose to buy more of it over the others. The good part of GE is its industrial operations and those are similar in profitability and diversity to UTX, ITW, MMM, EMR, etc. Those companies are selling just as cheaply and their businesses have prospects that are at least as good as GE (all of them have more favorable earnings comparison forecasts for 2009 than does GE). However, GE has the finance side which could, at worst, blow it up or at best, will be an underperforming drag on operations for the near future.

FWIW, I've been a GE shareholder since 1991 so I've followed it pretty closely for near two decades now . . . and I sold 75% of it in the spring and summer this year. Not a decision I made lightly since I've had it so long but getting out of a financial industrial company into the other low debt industrial companies seemed wise to me at the time. We'll see how it pans out by 2025 . . .

When you have to borrow capital at 13%+ (when you count the redemption fee they are paying Buffett) you have problems. Especially following on the heels of all of those years of huge profits -- in retrospect it's easy to see that smart management should have saved some of that capital for a rainy day instead of blowing all the excess on stock buybacks. FWIW, in just 2007 and 2008 GE spent $17.4B repurchasing stock. While some of that was from business unit sales and I don't expect them to have forseen the magnitude of current problems, it's pretty bad to have spent $17B in the previous eighteen months repurchasing your stock at high prices and then have to turn around and borrow $10B on horrible terms.

I don't mean to be negative. I'm still a GE shareholder and I don't think they will collapse, I just think there are less risky opportunities that offer the same or better returns (especially in light of the pricing in the debt markets recently). If I wasn't mildly emotionally attached to my GE after two decades I probably would have sold it all.

FWIW, for a good chuckle from the 2007 Annual Report:

"In 2008, we should hit all of our financial goals and outperform the S&P 500. Our revenues should grow by at least 10% to $195 billion, with organic revenue growth at 2 to 3 times GDP growth. Our earnings per share should grow by at least 10%. Our return on average total capital (ROTC) should near our target of 20%. We expect to return $18 billion to our investors through the dividend and stock buyback."

"We have the discipline and the processes to win in this tough environment. We are in the fifth year of a successful organic growth initiative that is delivering results. More than half of our revenues are outside the U.S., and our global revenue growth was 22% in 2007. We have $150 billion of Infrastructure products and services in backlog. We have strict risk discipline, and as a result, have no exposure to losses from Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) and Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs). We have retained a “Triple-A”-rated balance sheet and generate substantial cash flow, so we can invest while others pull back."
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Old 11-13-2008, 09:24 PM   #76
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I missed the reasoning, why do people keep highlighting October 10 as a probable capitulation date? I take it that it was the low point?
Yep. 10/10 was the day the Dow hit the (so far) intraday low of 7,774.
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Old 11-13-2008, 09:25 PM   #77
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I could see FD saying "in full disclosure, my clients just purchased this stock" or "I have recommended this stock in the past" or "I hold this stock myself" (just to show us he has a vested interest in the issue) but I don't think he violated anyone's privacy.

In full disclosure I still think GE makes only light bulbs.
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Old 11-13-2008, 09:29 PM   #78
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Ok how is what FD is doing any different than a fund manager/financial adviser etc going on CNBC and saying we bought XYZ for our fund/clients.

FD's client are anonymous how is this possibly harmful to them. If anything it is beneficial, after all maybe Buffett is reading the boards and thinking about retirement, and decide Finance Dude is a smart guy, and decide it is time to buy a couple of billion of GE stock... Ok a bit of long shot but...
I didn't see original quote but I doubt FD posted any names. And I don't have a clue who FD works for or who he is, so what is the big deal anyway?
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Old 11-13-2008, 09:45 PM   #79
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I also don't see anything that FD did as not above board. He didn't list anybodys names here so whats the big deal.

FD, ain't no thing but a chicken wing.
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Old 11-13-2008, 10:23 PM   #80
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Yep. 10/10 was the day the Dow hit the (so far) intraday low of 7,774.
That was quite a day. The close was at 8451, almost 9% higher than that 7774 intraday low.

Ha
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