Going All Cash in 401k

[Animorph]

If I was really worried about the U.S. debt I wouldn't be in U.S. dollars for sure. One of the big hazards of all cash (of the same country). Real estate might do better, but who knows. At least you'd have a place to stay. Off the top of my head foreign stocks and bonds might be nice, though already part of my AA.

[timbervest]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Go-NoGo +1 Here are Jim Roger's "predictions" : 2011: 100% Chance of Crisis, Worse Than 2008: Jim Rogers https://www.cnbc.com/id/45219555 2012: Jim Rogers: It’s Going To Get Really “Bad After The Next Election” https://moneymorning.com/ob/jim-roge...xt-election-2/ 2013: Jim Rogers Warns: “You Better Run for the Hills!” https://www.cnbc.com/id/100600824 2014: JIM ROGERS – Sell Everything & Run For Your Lives https://www.cnbc.com/id/100600824 2015: Jim Rogers: “We’re Overdue” for a Stock Market Crash https://www.profitconfidential.com/s...-market-crash/ 2016: $68 TRILLION “BIBLICAL CRASH” Dead Ahead? Jim Rogers Issues a DIRE WARNING https://www.silverdoctors.com/headli...iblical-crash/ 2017: THE BOTTOM LINE: Legendary investor Jim Rogers expects the worst crash in our lifetime https://www.businessinsider.com/the-...blodget-2017-6 Even weather forecasters get it right sometimes - Jim Rogers, not so much. But even a stopped clock is right twice a day, and when the next recession hits, Jim will say "I told you so" - conveniently forgetting he was wrong every other time.

He's STILL at it
Jim Rogers warns of severe economic downturn and forecasts grim future for Japan

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20.../#.XTEj8PJKi70

[2177V]

Quote:

Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded I'm glad you have the money to spend a month in Hawaii, good for you. I'd rather spend my time on ski's than on a surf board (mostly because I can't surf ) l.

Can't surf?

Here are some free lessons from a surfer dude.....

Photo 1 illustrate a guy on his stomach while surfing because this is the first step in learning. The guy standing up is wearing a European life jacket because surfers must look "cool". Note how small and gentle the waves are in Waikiki so a wipeout is no big deal. Waikiki is famous for beginners.

Photo 2 illustrate the second step by surfing on your hands and knees. Note the open smile on the girl when she does this.

The final step is to stand up, If you do, you will be a "surfer for life". Surfers will always remember the very first time they stood up. It like being re-borned.

Photo 3 illustrates a european life jacket which looks like a tanktop. No surfer wear a USCG approved life jacket because it looks like you are on the titanic. A European life jacket is classified as a floatation device and not a life jacket but you can can kick, that is all you need to avoid drowning if you are not a good swimmer.

This is why I am buying property in Hawaii instead of having a large number in my IRA. I know how to live well.

[pb4uski]

Quote:

Originally Posted by vchan2177 Jim Rogers has a net worth of $300M. ...

No one was disputing that Jim Rogers was rich. Just because he is rich doesn't make him right.. there are many who are not calling for a perma-bear that are much richer... but that doesn't make them right either.

I agree that the national debt is a concern, but as it is it is less than 6x governmental revenue so it isn't irrepairable but it could get worse if action isn't taken... it just isn't an imminent threat.

[NW-Bound]

Ray Dalio of BridgeWater Associates is also concerned about high government debts, liabilities, and actions of central banks in countries around the world and not just the US.

There's a thread here on this forum about Ray's recent writing on this. Basically, Dalio suggested adding gold to one's portfolio.

For what it's worth, Dalio's net worth is $18.7 billion.

[RobbieB]

Listen to Ray, ignore Jim.

[NW-Bound]

And then, there's old trusty Warren Buffet who has poopoo'ed gold ownership over the years.

Warren has not said anything about changing that position regarding gold. And Warren does not care much about bonds either. He prefers 90% in stocks.

And Warren is worth around $90 billion.

[pb4uski]

I'll listen to Warren over that quack Jim Rogers anyday.

[triangle]

I try to understand the reasoning behind what these pundits are saying, not their crystal ball reading. Economic action across the world is simply too big and too complex for the smartest person in the world to predict the outcome.

But we can see that the growing national debt has been a bipartisan effort, essentially doubling over each of the past 3-4 administrations. There is no sign this trend will end soon, even though there are natural limits to such exponential growth. So higher taxes and/or higher inflation will be needed to service this debt in the future, hurting economic growth. Higher inflation would make it easier pay off these old debts which will should make harder assets and future revenue streams of publicly traded companies more valuable than cash IMO. But it is likely to make the stock market more volatile and hurt current bond holders too.

[UnrealizedPotential]

This topic comes up now and then. Should I sell now or hold on? Is the market going to crash or will the bull market last another 10 years? Of course nobody knows the answers to those questions. So for me, I decided a long time ago it was just a lot easier to set an asset allocation and forget it. But that's just me.

[NW-Bound]

^^^ That's the steadfastly held position of the late Bogle. If he were still alive, I am sure he would repeat: "Don't do anything".

Bogle was worth $80M. Not as rich as the previously mentioned pundits, but not too shabby either.

[joeea]

Quote:

Originally Posted by vchan2177 Jim Rogers has a net worth of $300M. How much net worth do you have?

Warren Buffet has a net worth of $84.3 Billion. How much net worth do you have?

Quote:

People has missed the point that the USA debt was $11 trillion 10 years ago and it is now $22 trillion and still climbing. The USA is getting close to Greece, Italy and Japan. IMO, this is not sustainable. I just reallocate my portfolio to be more conservative

Why did you wait so long? According to Jim you are very, very late. And why do you have anything at all in the stock market?

Quote:

I already have tickets to go to Waikiki for an entire month and I want to have a good time surfing on a long board at age 68 without having too much of my money in the stock market. I will also be shopping for a vacation condo in Waikiki so I can covert some of my wealth into real estate. If the market do crash during my retirement, then I will be the one who has the last laugh.

Enjoy your vacation. Try to find ways to laugh every day, even if the market doesn't crash.

I'd rather be the first one to laugh, than the last one. In fact, I'm laughing right now.

[ncbill]

Quote:

Originally Posted by USGrant1962 Just a small pile-on for Jim Rogers. Googling "Jim Rodgers Bear Market" results in 13 MILLION hits... Anyway, I know a bear market is coming and as an Early Retiree I am nowhere near 100% equities. Changing your asset allocation based on your stage of life is appropriate. But I have no idea when a bear market is coming and don't pretend to, so I count on my AA to handle it. vchan2177, your 25/75 AA is actually in on the very conservative end of the "normal" range for a 68-year old. But early retirees are at huge risk of inflation over the long term (which many predict is the result of the debt problem) and need equities for growth.

Doesn't Kitces recommend a 30/70 AA for those already in retirement?

Looks like vchan's close to being there already.

And if vchan wants real estate then they should rent & wait for the crash to get a better deal... pick up properties much cheaper given currently high real estate valuations.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RobbieB I look where the dog takes a pee. If she heads to the left, I know stocks are good. If off to the right I should be more conservative and buy bonds.

I thought you had a "guy" to do that hard financial work for you! (and this is just light hearted teasing, in case it didn't come across that way!)


-ERD50

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeea Quote: Originally Posted by vchan2177 View Post Jim Rogers and I share the same bearish views How long have you two shared these views?

If vchan2177 followed him back in 2011 ( see link in post # 106), he would be out of the market, and into Euro currency.

Market has about doubled since then, Euro has dropped ~ 15%. Hmm, so even if the market does drop in half, and not recover, he would still be behind.

Some of the retirees on this forum experienced 2 big market drops, and if they held they are fine.

-ERD50

[NW-Bound]

Again, I thought Jim Rogers was worth more than $300M. Maybe he lost some money.

Rogers was cofounder of Quantum and Soros Funds back in 1973, along with Soros. Rogers left the funds in 1980.

Soros is still worth $8 billion.

[The Cosmic Avenger]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound Again, I thought Jim Rogers was worth more than $300M. Maybe he lost some money. Rogers was cofounder of Quantum and Soros Funds back in 1973, along with Soros. Rogers left the funds in 1980. Soros is still worth $8 billion.

You know what they say:
What's the quickest way to become a millionaire?
Start with a billion dollars!

[NW-Bound]

Rogers' claim to fame was when his return was 4,200% between 1970 and 1980, while the S&P 500 only gained about 47%.

But prior to that, he was wiped out when he shorted the stock market in 1970.

Another claim to fame of his buddy Soros was when Soros shorted the British pound in 1992. Soros pocketed $1 billion in just a few days.

See: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/ans...of-england.asp.

These guys are really the dare devils of traders. I find them interesting, but do not see how I can follow their investment styles.

[2177V]

Quote:

Originally Posted by USGrant1962 Just a small pile-on for Jim Rogers. Googling "Jim Rodgers Bear Market" results in 13 MILLION hits... Anyway, I know a bear market is coming and as an Early Retiree I am nowhere near 100% equities. Changing your asset allocation based on your stage of life is appropriate. But I have no idea when a bear market is coming and don't pretend to, so I count on my AA to handle it. vchan2177, your 25/75 AA is actually in on the very conservative end of the "normal" range for a 68-year old. But early retirees are at huge risk of inflation over the long term (which many predict is the result of the debt problem) and need equities for growth.

Everybody's financial situation is different. I have a federal pension (62% of salary), a California pension (27% of salary) and Social security (12% of salary) which all have a COLA adjustment every year. This means my IRA is not really needed for retirement income and therefore I was super aggressive during the last 10 years which I was rewarded from the bull market.

Now that I made enough money in my IRA and my retirement income exceeds my pre-retirement salary from my pensions alone, I decided to cash out my IRA slowly. This is because I get taxed so I ran several withdrawal situations on TurboTax to get the maximum yearly withdrawal amount with minimum tax consequences. I became very conservative simply because the higher federal debt alarms me and because a crash during withdrawing assets would be bad in my specific situation.

Portfolio models that you cite probably apply to people who are dependent on their IRA for "retirement income". Since my IRA is considered "disposable assets" and not retirement income, I went from super aggressive to super conservative. This is similar to gambling. I was "all-in" during the bull market and I will be nearly "all-out" during my withdrawals. I must have broken all the normal rules on AA simply because my situation is different.

I will be surfing in Hawaii next month and looking at the girls in bikinis and I rather not worry about the stock market while I am enjoying my retirement. 25% stock is a good number during my withdrawal phase since any stock market crash only affects 25% of my IRA assets.

I sincerely apoligize for mentioning Jim Rogers since I had no idea how many people hated this man for his incorrect predictions. I learned a good lesson from this.

[Dtail]

Quote:

Originally Posted by vchan2177 Everybody's financial situation is different. I have a federal pension (62% of salary), a California pension (27% of salary) and Social security (12% of salary) which all have a COLA adjustment every year. This means my IRA is not really needed for retirement income and therefore I was super aggressive during the last 10 years which I was rewarded from the bull market. Now that I made enough money in my IRA and my retirement income exceeds my pre-retirement salary from my pensions alone, I decided to cash out my IRA slowly. This is because I get taxed so I ran several withdrawal situations on TurboTax to get the maximum yearly withdrawal amount with minimum tax consequences. I became very conservative simply because the higher federal debt alarms me and because a crash during withdrawing assets would be bad in my specific situation. Portfolio models that you cite probably apply to people who are dependent on their IRA for "retirement income". Since my IRA is considered "disposable assets" and not retirement income, I went from super aggressive to super conservative. This is similar to gambling. I was "all-in" during the bull market and I will be nearly "all-out" during my withdrawals. I must have broken all the normal rules on AA simply because my situation is different. I will be surfing in Hawaii next month and looking at the girls in bikinis and I rather not worry about the stock market while I am enjoying my retirement. 25% stock is a good number during my withdrawal phase since any stock market crash only affects 25% of my IRA assets. I sincerely apoligize for mentioning Jim Rogers since I had no idea how many people hated this man for his incorrect predictions. I learned a good lesson from this.

You are fine.
There are many permabear forecasters out there and eventually they will be correct about a bear market.
Many of us just don't get alarmed by these false prophets on the markets, whether we hold 0% or 100% or anything in between in stocks.