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Good time to buy gold/gold ETF now - Nov., 2017?
Old 11-20-2017, 12:32 PM   #1
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Good time to buy gold/gold ETF now - Nov., 2017?

I need to balance my portfolio a bit and am looking at investing in gold ETF for long term. What do others think about buying gold now?
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Old 11-20-2017, 02:23 PM   #2
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Id avoid an ETF and only consider physical gold bullion if you do invest in gold. But Id wait. I expect it to drop below $1200, then Id buy. I do expect it to rise significantly in the long term, but not imminent.
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Old 11-20-2017, 02:36 PM   #3
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I think it's a hilarious idea.
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Old 11-20-2017, 02:37 PM   #4
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I don't think it's all now or none. Why wouldn't one ease in over a few years, say every six months?

We own two Au ETF's in our assets. Have held for 10-12 years now.
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Old 11-20-2017, 03:25 PM   #5
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Be aware that to fund their operation many precious metals funds sell a small amount of their holdings monthly. For income tax purposes these sales are passed to each fund holder to report on their tax returns. The data about these sales is not released until March or April, delaying tax filing. In addition you may find the necessary gain/loss calculations tedious, especially if you've bought into the fund on separate occasions.
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Old 11-20-2017, 04:49 PM   #6
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Be aware that to fund their operation many precious metals funds sell a small amount of their holdings monthly. For income tax purposes these sales are passed to each fund holder to report on their tax returns. The data about these sales is not released until March or April, delaying tax filing. In addition you may find the necessary gain/loss calculations tedious, especially if you've bought into the fund on separate occasions.
I've never run into this issue with my two Au ETF's.
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Old 11-21-2017, 08:36 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by robnplunder View Post
I need to balance my portfolio a bit and am looking at investing in gold ETF for long term. What do others think about buying gold now?
Gold ETFs are not a good long-term investment, but they can be useful under certain circumstances. Whenever you buy, Gold is always highly speculative and is not really an 'investment' in the traditional sense as much as it is a commodity. One of the problems with ETFs is that they usually hold futures contracts - orders for future Gold purchases - that would be impossible to fill in the event of a total market crash. Here's an article that explains it... There's no reason to own a gold ETF - Business Insider

Physical Gold (and precious metals and diamonds) is a traditional hedge against currency deflation and a physical storage of intrinsic value. (vs. the extrinsic value of currency). I consider it more of an insurance policy, that many will argue is of dubious value - until **** hits the fan. I didn't start to buy physical Gold and Silver until I felt we had enough other assets invested and working for us to be comfortable. It was one of the final pieces of our diversification/asset protection strategy in retirement - a decent portion of our savings account money that we didn't want to keep in the bank.

Many wealthy investors will keep a percentage of their assets in physical Gold and rebalance periodically. There are several different ways to do this, and it's worth doing some homework if you're interested. Here's a video of one famous investor you'll recognize and his strategy:
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Old 11-21-2017, 10:15 PM   #8
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Gold ETFs are not a good long-term investment, but they can be useful under certain circumstances. Whenever you buy, Gold is always highly speculative and is not really an 'investment' in the traditional sense as much as it is a commodity. One of the problems with ETFs is that they usually hold futures contracts - orders for future Gold purchases - that would be impossible to fill in the event of a total market crash. Here's an article that explains it... There's no reason to own a gold ETF - Business Insider

Physical Gold (and precious metals and diamonds) is a traditional hedge against currency deflation and a physical storage of intrinsic value. (vs. the extrinsic value of currency). I consider it more of an insurance policy, that many will argue is of dubious value - until **** hits the fan. I didn't start to buy physical Gold and Silver until I felt we had enough other assets invested and working for us to be comfortable. It was one of the final pieces of our diversification/asset protection strategy in retirement - a decent portion of our savings account money that we didn't want to keep in the bank.

Many wealthy investors will keep a percentage of their assets in physical Gold and rebalance periodically. There are several different ways to do this, and it's worth doing some homework if you're interested. Here's a video of one famous investor you'll recognize and his strategy:
That's a nice commercial for physical gold services.
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Old 11-22-2017, 05:48 AM   #9
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IMO gold isn't really an investment but more of a hedge against inflation and rampant uncertainty in financial markets and political systems.

That said I have no problem with a small holding in gold, precious metals and other hard asset commodities, say up to 5% of a portfolio, provided one understands why they hold it and what role they expect it to play.
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Old 11-22-2017, 06:14 AM   #10
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I have some GLD which is an ETF. Bought several years ago, it's still down over $2K.

Physical gold is not a good investment. You pay a high transaction/commission fee. You have to pay to store it, or keep it at your house. You pay a high commission.

If you are buying gold coins for more than the face value of gold bullion, you have to speculate that the next buyers want that same currency or imprinting.

If you are buying gold for the Apocalypse, guns and bullets are a better investment. If you are buying them as a hedge, an ETF works better.
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Old 11-22-2017, 08:00 AM   #11
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IMO gold isn't really an investment but more of a hedge against inflation and rampant uncertainty in financial markets and political systems.

That said I have no problem with a small holding in gold, precious metals and other hard asset commodities, say up to 5% of a portfolio, provided one understands why they hold it and what role they expect it to play.
I agree with this other than I don't consider Au a commodity since hardly any of it is consumed but rather held & recycled at 99%+. Its beauty gives it intrinsic value.
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Old 11-22-2017, 08:11 AM   #12
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To me Gold is a fear play, nothing more. If you want it to balance your portfolio when stocks are going down, there are much better ways to do it. If you think having physical gold will enable you to buy things in a changed world, go for it. Just don't call it an investment. It is speculation at best.

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Old 11-22-2017, 08:15 AM   #13
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Gold is not a good investment - IMO. UNLESS huge market forces occur - which does happen :-)

I did some numismatic "investing" about 20 years ago as my "hedge" ... not a good investment, but was entertaining ... still watch it as it stays flat ... flat ... flat.

Short story - had a friend who started numismatic investing in high school with his part time job money - met him after he joined Navy after college - when he was still buying gold coins ... we used to make fun of him. Then the prices of coins went up orders of magnitude. I keep thinking I will see him in the news ...he had hundreds of MS65 (all he bought) gold coins.

Everything is an investment - if the prices skyrocket AFTER you buy.
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Old 11-22-2017, 07:21 PM   #14
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Thanks for those who gave their opinions. It seems I need to seriously look at why before investing in gold ETF.
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Old 11-26-2017, 08:31 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
IMO gold isn't really an investment but more of a hedge against inflation and rampant uncertainty in financial markets and political systems.

That said I have no problem with a small holding in gold, precious metals and other hard asset commodities, say up to 5% of a portfolio, provided one understands why they hold it and what role they expect it to play.
it has been a pretty crappy hedge against inflation . it really moves more with the dollar than moderate or low inflation .

if you bought gold back in the 1970's when you were first allowed to own it and also bought a t-bill at the same time and rolled it over , today the t-bill is worth about the same thing .

but here is what gold is good for:

gold rarely has negative real returns in a down market for stocks . so having the optimum amount of gold in your portfolio to match your stocks and bonds sets a real return floor that tends to have less losing years , tighter swings and in a diversified portfolio higher gains than just the stocks and bonds over the long term for the amount of risk . .

98% of all stock market downturns had gold hold a positive real return in the portfolio
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Old 11-26-2017, 08:34 AM   #16
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interesting reading on the subject .
------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Our study demonstrates that adding gold to a typical/balanced portfolio has been beneficial across a wide range of allocations in terms of boosting risk-adjusted returns. Unexpectedly, over the 43 years studied, the optimal allocation has actually been 25% to gold and 75% to a balanced portfolio, representing a mix of roughly 45% stocks, 30% bonds, and 25% gold. In fact, investors could have allocated as much as 45% to gold based on historical analysis and still fallen on the frontier of efficient portfolios that dominate holding a pure balanced fund. "
-----------------------------------------------
at the moment i own no gold .



Gold diversification | Creating a more optimal portfolio allocation | Proactive Advisor Magazine
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Old 11-26-2017, 08:55 AM   #17
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For me, gold doesn't do anything. A bit like the Buffett line of thinking: you dig it up, put it a guarded house and wait .. costing resources to guard it. You are paying to wait.

Meanwhile, a company produces things, can grow etc .. if a company is healthy enough, you are usually being paid to wait.

Add into that inflation where gold has no strong correlation, low predictability, government interventions (selling down gold reserves at unknown moments) and no usefulness in virtual form if the apocalypse hits, and I'm struggling to see why anyone should have it as an investment, unless you are intimately familiar with the industry.
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Old 11-26-2017, 09:06 AM   #18
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i have my fun money i like to speculate with and for me gold has been all about timing the markets not time in the markets . i have traded in and out of gld 30x this year generating profits of about 28k . it has been my biggest gainer in my fun money category .
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Old 11-26-2017, 09:08 AM   #19
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interesting reading on the subject .
------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Our study demonstrates that adding gold to a typical/balanced portfolio has been beneficial across a wide range of allocations in terms of boosting risk-adjusted returns. Unexpectedly, over the 43 years studied, the optimal allocation has actually been 25% to gold and 75% to a balanced portfolio, representing a mix of roughly 45% stocks, 30% bonds, and 25% gold. In fact, investors could have allocated as much as 45% to gold based on historical analysis and still fallen on the frontier of efficient portfolios that dominate holding a pure balanced fund. "
-----------------------------------------------
at the moment i own no gold .



Gold diversification | Creating a more optimal portfolio allocation | Proactive Advisor Magazine
Interesting reading mathjak107 and thanks for posting. From their own research, it appears that Treasuries are better ballast than gold in most all market conditions. Adding gold may improve the ballast, but 25% seems to be excessive as for the lost opportunity in equities during the normal market cycle. Much like having an excessive cash position increases drag on returns.
Thanks for posting and the research is done by a company that is big on active investing and timing the market. They may have a system that works...

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Old 11-26-2017, 09:44 AM   #20
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How can you bribe a border guard with an ETF?
Buy some bullion or coins instead.
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