|
|
Good time to buy gold/gold ETF now - Nov., 2017?
11-20-2017, 11:32 AM
|
#1
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Bay Area
Posts: 2,745
|
Good time to buy gold/gold ETF now - Nov., 2017?
I need to balance my portfolio a bit and am looking at investing in gold ETF for long term. What do others think about buying gold now?
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
11-20-2017, 01:23 PM
|
#2
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Limerick
Posts: 5,638
|
I’d avoid an ETF and only consider physical gold bullion if you do invest in gold. But I’d wait. I expect it to drop below $1200, then I’d buy. I do expect it to rise significantly in the long term, but not imminent.
|
|
|
11-20-2017, 01:36 PM
|
#3
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 10,337
|
I think it's a hilarious idea.
|
|
|
11-20-2017, 01:37 PM
|
#4
|
gone traveling
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,375
|
I don't think it's all now or none. Why wouldn't one ease in over a few years, say every six months?
We own two Au ETF's in our assets. Have held for 10-12 years now.
|
|
|
11-20-2017, 02:25 PM
|
#5
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 3,877
|
Be aware that to fund their operation many precious metals funds sell a small amount of their holdings monthly. For income tax purposes these sales are passed to each fund holder to report on their tax returns. The data about these sales is not released until March or April, delaying tax filing. In addition you may find the necessary gain/loss calculations tedious, especially if you've bought into the fund on separate occasions.
|
|
|
11-20-2017, 03:49 PM
|
#6
|
gone traveling
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,375
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrayHare
Be aware that to fund their operation many precious metals funds sell a small amount of their holdings monthly. For income tax purposes these sales are passed to each fund holder to report on their tax returns. The data about these sales is not released until March or April, delaying tax filing. In addition you may find the necessary gain/loss calculations tedious, especially if you've bought into the fund on separate occasions.
|
I've never run into this issue with my two Au ETF's.
|
|
|
11-21-2017, 07:36 PM
|
#7
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 572
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by robnplunder
I need to balance my portfolio a bit and am looking at investing in gold ETF for long term. What do others think about buying gold now?
|
Gold ETFs are not a good long-term investment, but they can be useful under certain circumstances. Whenever you buy, Gold is always highly speculative and is not really an 'investment' in the traditional sense as much as it is a commodity. One of the problems with ETFs is that they usually hold futures contracts - orders for future Gold purchases - that would be impossible to fill in the event of a total market crash. Here's an article that explains it... There's no reason to own a gold ETF - Business Insider
Physical Gold (and precious metals and diamonds) is a traditional hedge against currency deflation and a physical storage of intrinsic value. (vs. the extrinsic value of currency). I consider it more of an insurance policy, that many will argue is of dubious value - until **** hits the fan. I didn't start to buy physical Gold and Silver until I felt we had enough other assets invested and working for us to be comfortable. It was one of the final pieces of our diversification/asset protection strategy in retirement - a decent portion of our savings account money that we didn't want to keep in the bank.
Many wealthy investors will keep a percentage of their assets in physical Gold and rebalance periodically. There are several different ways to do this, and it's worth doing some homework if you're interested. Here's a video of one famous investor you'll recognize and his strategy:
|
|
|
11-21-2017, 09:15 PM
|
#8
|
gone traveling
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,375
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Starsky
Gold ETFs are not a good long-term investment, but they can be useful under certain circumstances. Whenever you buy, Gold is always highly speculative and is not really an 'investment' in the traditional sense as much as it is a commodity. One of the problems with ETFs is that they usually hold futures contracts - orders for future Gold purchases - that would be impossible to fill in the event of a total market crash. Here's an article that explains it... There's no reason to own a gold ETF - Business Insider
Physical Gold (and precious metals and diamonds) is a traditional hedge against currency deflation and a physical storage of intrinsic value. (vs. the extrinsic value of currency). I consider it more of an insurance policy, that many will argue is of dubious value - until **** hits the fan. I didn't start to buy physical Gold and Silver until I felt we had enough other assets invested and working for us to be comfortable. It was one of the final pieces of our diversification/asset protection strategy in retirement - a decent portion of our savings account money that we didn't want to keep in the bank.
Many wealthy investors will keep a percentage of their assets in physical Gold and rebalance periodically. There are several different ways to do this, and it's worth doing some homework if you're interested. Here's a video of one famous investor you'll recognize and his strategy:
|
That's a nice commercial for physical gold services.
|
|
|
11-22-2017, 04:48 AM
|
#9
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
|
IMO gold isn't really an investment but more of a hedge against inflation and rampant uncertainty in financial markets and political systems.
That said I have no problem with a small holding in gold, precious metals and other hard asset commodities, say up to 5% of a portfolio, provided one understands why they hold it and what role they expect it to play.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
|
|
|
11-22-2017, 05:14 AM
|
#10
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Williston, FL
Posts: 3,925
|
I have some GLD which is an ETF. Bought several years ago, it's still down over $2K.
Physical gold is not a good investment. You pay a high transaction/commission fee. You have to pay to store it, or keep it at your house. You pay a high commission.
If you are buying gold coins for more than the face value of gold bullion, you have to speculate that the next buyers want that same currency or imprinting.
If you are buying gold for the Apocalypse, guns and bullets are a better investment. If you are buying them as a hedge, an ETF works better.
__________________
FIRE no later than 7/5/2016 at 56 (done), securing '16 401K match (done), getting '15 401K match (done), LTI Bonus (done), Perf bonus (done), maxing out 401K (done), picking up 1,000 hours to get another year of pension (done), July 1st benefits (vacation day, healthcare) (done), July 4th holiday. 0 days left. (done) OFFICIALLY RETIRED 7/5/2016!!
|
|
|
11-22-2017, 07:00 AM
|
#11
|
gone traveling
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,375
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
IMO gold isn't really an investment but more of a hedge against inflation and rampant uncertainty in financial markets and political systems.
That said I have no problem with a small holding in gold, precious metals and other hard asset commodities, say up to 5% of a portfolio, provided one understands why they hold it and what role they expect it to play.
|
I agree with this other than I don't consider Au a commodity since hardly any of it is consumed but rather held & recycled at 99%+. Its beauty gives it intrinsic value.
|
|
|
11-22-2017, 07:11 AM
|
#12
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tellico Village
Posts: 2,607
|
To me Gold is a fear play, nothing more. If you want it to balance your portfolio when stocks are going down, there are much better ways to do it. If you think having physical gold will enable you to buy things in a changed world, go for it. Just don't call it an investment. It is speculation at best.
VW
|
|
|
11-22-2017, 07:15 AM
|
#13
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 1,605
|
Gold is not a good investment - IMO. UNLESS huge market forces occur - which does happen :-)
I did some numismatic "investing" about 20 years ago as my "hedge" ... not a good investment, but was entertaining ... still watch it as it stays flat ... flat ... flat.
Short story - had a friend who started numismatic investing in high school with his part time job money - met him after he joined Navy after college - when he was still buying gold coins ... we used to make fun of him. Then the prices of coins went up orders of magnitude. I keep thinking I will see him in the news ...he had hundreds of MS65 (all he bought) gold coins.
Everything is an investment - if the prices skyrocket AFTER you buy.
|
|
|
11-22-2017, 06:21 PM
|
#14
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Bay Area
Posts: 2,745
|
Thanks for those who gave their opinions. It seems I need to seriously look at why before investing in gold ETF.
|
|
|
11-26-2017, 07:31 AM
|
#15
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 6,115
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
IMO gold isn't really an investment but more of a hedge against inflation and rampant uncertainty in financial markets and political systems.
That said I have no problem with a small holding in gold, precious metals and other hard asset commodities, say up to 5% of a portfolio, provided one understands why they hold it and what role they expect it to play.
|
it has been a pretty crappy hedge against inflation . it really moves more with the dollar than moderate or low inflation .
if you bought gold back in the 1970's when you were first allowed to own it and also bought a t-bill at the same time and rolled it over , today the t-bill is worth about the same thing .
but here is what gold is good for:
gold rarely has negative real returns in a down market for stocks . so having the optimum amount of gold in your portfolio to match your stocks and bonds sets a real return floor that tends to have less losing years , tighter swings and in a diversified portfolio higher gains than just the stocks and bonds over the long term for the amount of risk . .
98% of all stock market downturns had gold hold a positive real return in the portfolio
|
|
|
11-26-2017, 07:34 AM
|
#16
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 6,115
|
interesting reading on the subject .
------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Our study demonstrates that adding gold to a typical/balanced portfolio has been beneficial across a wide range of allocations in terms of boosting risk-adjusted returns. Unexpectedly, over the 43 years studied, the optimal allocation has actually been 25% to gold and 75% to a balanced portfolio, representing a mix of roughly 45% stocks, 30% bonds, and 25% gold. In fact, investors could have allocated as much as 45% to gold based on historical analysis and still fallen on the frontier of efficient portfolios that dominate holding a pure balanced fund. "
-----------------------------------------------
at the moment i own no gold .
Gold diversification | Creating a more optimal portfolio allocation | Proactive Advisor Magazine
|
|
|
11-26-2017, 07:55 AM
|
#17
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,650
|
For me, gold doesn't do anything. A bit like the Buffett line of thinking: you dig it up, put it a guarded house and wait .. costing resources to guard it. You are paying to wait.
Meanwhile, a company produces things, can grow etc .. if a company is healthy enough, you are usually being paid to wait.
Add into that inflation where gold has no strong correlation, low predictability, government interventions (selling down gold reserves at unknown moments) and no usefulness in virtual form if the apocalypse hits, and I'm struggling to see why anyone should have it as an investment, unless you are intimately familiar with the industry.
|
|
|
11-26-2017, 08:06 AM
|
#18
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 6,115
|
i have my fun money i like to speculate with and for me gold has been all about timing the markets not time in the markets . i have traded in and out of gld 30x this year generating profits of about 28k . it has been my biggest gainer in my fun money category .
|
|
|
11-26-2017, 08:08 AM
|
#19
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tellico Village
Posts: 2,607
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107
interesting reading on the subject .
------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Our study demonstrates that adding gold to a typical/balanced portfolio has been beneficial across a wide range of allocations in terms of boosting risk-adjusted returns. Unexpectedly, over the 43 years studied, the optimal allocation has actually been 25% to gold and 75% to a balanced portfolio, representing a mix of roughly 45% stocks, 30% bonds, and 25% gold. In fact, investors could have allocated as much as 45% to gold based on historical analysis and still fallen on the frontier of efficient portfolios that dominate holding a pure balanced fund. "
-----------------------------------------------
at the moment i own no gold .
Gold diversification | Creating a more optimal portfolio allocation | Proactive Advisor Magazine
|
Interesting reading mathjak107 and thanks for posting. From their own research, it appears that Treasuries are better ballast than gold in most all market conditions. Adding gold may improve the ballast, but 25% seems to be excessive as for the lost opportunity in equities during the normal market cycle. Much like having an excessive cash position increases drag on returns.
Thanks for posting and the research is done by a company that is big on active investing and timing the market. They may have a system that works...
VW
|
|
|
11-26-2017, 08:44 AM
|
#20
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 3,501
|
How can you bribe a border guard with an ETF?
Buy some bullion or coins instead.
__________________
“No, not rich. I am a poor man with money, which is not the same thing"
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Display Modes |
Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|