Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Google...is it priced right?
Old 03-23-2008, 07:53 PM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
thefed's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,203
Google...is it priced right?

for the record, im just curious...not intending to buy...but google has been sliding for quite some time and i wonder where it'll stop


what seems to be an appropriate value for goog, using p/e or whatever you'd use to determine that? as u can tell i dont read charts much....just wondering if google is reasonably priced yet
__________________

__________________
thefed is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 03-23-2008, 08:37 PM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
don't matter, don't try to catch a falling knife buying a stock that fell 40% or so in such a short time. there is a good reason.
__________________

__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-23-2008, 09:42 PM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,450
Quote:
Originally Posted by thefed View Post
for the record, im just curious...not intending to buy...but google has been sliding for quite some time and i wonder where it'll stop


what seems to be an appropriate value for goog, using p/e or whatever you'd use to determine that? as u can tell i dont read charts much....just wondering if google is reasonably priced yet
FWIW (more than you paid for it but not much more) Morningstar has increased their moat rating of Google from narrow to wide and increased their fair value from $550 to $625/share.

I know CEO Eric Schmidt from college, and a few subsquent meetings. I can say that he and the other Google folks I know all fall into the scary smart category. Now how to translate brains into share price is the $64,000 question.

Sounds like most technical analyst think the stock is going lower.
__________________
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2008, 07:15 AM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
it has nothing to do with smart management, but the law of large numbers. google's growth rate is slowing and i guess at $750 or whatever the high was, it was priced for 110% perfection.

a large part of google's revenue base is also going belly up

the stock didn't drop 40% because all the fund managers think it's a screaming buy and will keep going higher. you always have these crazy fears that wall street uses to shake retail investors out of their shares and this is why you see 20% to 30% corrections every once in a while, but 40% is too deep
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2008, 07:50 AM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,450
Perhaps you are right. But it is worth noting that AAPL a multi billion company dropped form ~35 to 5 during 2000, and had a nice recovery back to $135. On the other CSCO an INTC both took huge plunges and never recovered.

I thing it is safe to say that depending on growth rates, margins, and ability to expand into new business you can reasonable argue that Google is worth anything between $100 and $1,000
__________________
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2008, 10:11 AM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
AAPL is a William O'Neill poster child. he says any stock you buy should have 3 years of 25% growth in EPS at the minimum. he also says to buy stock in companies with an IPO in the last 8 years, but Apple is an exception. Steve Jobs coming back was like a second life

Steve Jobs comes back in 1997 and by the time it started soaring in 2003 it had several years of great earnings

Cisco and Intel both had growth rates that plunged in 2000 just as Google is experiencing now. not that Google is going to be like P&G, but the hypergrowth days are over for now. there was some metric they reported a few months back that is not growing as fast as it used to and that's when they started falling

MS had something similar. IPO in 1986, shot up and then fell and was dead money for years until Windows 95/Windows NT4. I bet in a few years Google will soar again
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2008, 08:37 PM   #7
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 50
Tough one, but here we go. If, (and that's a BIG IF), GOOG continues to sell at a 34 PE & hits their '09 est.of around $25.00. You could make a bull case for a stock selling at upwards of $800.00!

For what it's worth, I continue to add to my position. My avg. price now is around $471.00. GOOG closed at $460.00 today. TREMENDOUS premiums available on both the Call & Put side. Significant intraday moves make this a trader's delight. Tight stops are mandatory, IMO, if you decide to play along.

In any event, please continue to do your own DD. Best of luck!!

FMH
__________________
fmhealth is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2008, 01:33 AM   #8
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 524
I set aside a small percentage of my portfolio for stock picks. The thing that's always kept me from buying Google is that the switching costs are virtually nothing. If a newcomer or current player introduce breakthough technology goog could be in serious trouble (the next Altavista.) If they continue to dominate, it's likely that the stock will do well.
__________________
JB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2008, 09:19 AM   #9
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,052
OK, I'm going to pat myself on the back on this one. I suggested shorting GOOG when it was near $700 (see my short plays thread), and buy it at $419. I think it's going back to around $540. JMO though.
__________________
Art G is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2008, 09:40 AM   #10
Full time employment: Posting here.
Patrick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Northern, Florida
Posts: 925
Quote:
Originally Posted by Art G View Post
OK, I'm going to pat myself on the back on this one. I suggested shorting GOOG when it was near $700 (see my short plays thread), and buy it at $419. I think it's going back to around $540. JMO though.
So do you recommend shorting it again @ $540?
__________________
Retired in 2006 at age 49.

"Who among us is smart enough to learn from the mistakes of others?" - Voltaire
Patrick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2008, 09:47 AM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,052
Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick View Post
So do you recommend shorting it again @ $540?
LOL! Thinking ahead? I can't say yet. Often times stocks make that inverted "N" on the chart and the stock plummets, but also, often times they test their support then head off to make new highs. I'd have to wait now to see how it does when it tests its' resistance.
BTW, a very insteresting stock right now is TNH. If it breaks below $100, I think it continues down below $70. However, if it holds these current levels, then watch for $200. My bet is it drops to $70, but I'm not betting with money right now (unfortunately, TNH doesn't offer options). JMO
__________________
Art G is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2008, 11:31 AM   #12
Confused about dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 9
Interesting,

I was lucky enough to sell at near high of $729., and I am glad I did. Any company which is solely dependent on advertising is going to take a hit in a recession where the first thing companies do is cut their advertising costs. Since CountryWide was multi million dollar a month spender with PayPerClick industry, and now near bankrupt, no doubt the financial sector is pulling back on advertising, so I expect Google to continue slide for rest of year, so a buying opportunity will again come around in time.

Good luck to all, Mike
__________________
WarrantiesFurLess is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2008, 10:55 AM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,052
It looks like GOOG is reversing back down. It may be a hiccup, but I'd rather be on the sidelines with it right now. JMO.
__________________
Art G is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-17-2008, 03:40 PM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
Well I guess they did pretty well today on their report.
__________________
Notmuchlonger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-17-2008, 05:14 PM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
they only beat revenue because of the fall in the dollar

we'll see how they do next week
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-17-2008, 05:28 PM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,450
Up 70 in after hours to $526

Funny I was looking at amazing volitality of Google options yesterday and wondering if would make sense to sell a straddle. Deciding that it was too risky and today I know why I came to that conclusion!
__________________
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-17-2008, 07:41 PM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
maybe one of the pro's can answer this

every year google spends a lot of money on capital expenditures. probably data centers and stuff like that. unless they count it in cost of revenues, i can't see where they are taking it as an expense
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-18-2008, 09:02 AM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,052
WOW! Missed it by this much! Got out one day early and it hits flat dab at the resistance line today.
We'll see if there is any way they break through. Might be a very good sign for the market if they can.
__________________
Art G is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-18-2008, 01:51 PM   #19
Full time employment: Posting here.
Patrick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Northern, Florida
Posts: 925
GOOG @ $540.46 now. So does that mean it's going up or down from here? :confused:
__________________
Retired in 2006 at age 49.

"Who among us is smart enough to learn from the mistakes of others?" - Voltaire
Patrick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-18-2008, 01:54 PM   #20
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,052
Geez, I lost out out on a lot of money by selling my calls a couple days ago. I'd wait to see if GOOG can break through the resistance here. I don't think there's any hurry to buy right now. JMO
__________________

__________________
Art G is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Any Bargain Priced cruises in Alaska this summer ? Mark6107 Travel Information 11 03-23-2008 04:11 AM
Google launches Google Finance Olav23 FIRE and Money 11 02-08-2008 02:42 PM
Gaining traction: health insurance premiums priced to lifestyles Nords Health and Early Retirement 17 11-02-2007 10:23 AM
Senior citizen discount: half-priced nooners! wabmester Life after FIRE 9 03-25-2007 09:05 PM
Check out the "google" at the top of the google page cute fuzzy bunny Other topics 0 03-17-2006 09:40 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:32 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.