|
|
Google...is it priced right?
03-23-2008, 06:53 PM
|
#1
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,203
|
Google...is it priced right?
for the record, im just curious...not intending to buy...but google has been sliding for quite some time and i wonder where it'll stop
what seems to be an appropriate value for goog, using p/e or whatever you'd use to determine that? as u can tell i dont read charts much....just wondering if google is reasonably priced yet
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
03-23-2008, 07:37 PM
|
#2
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
|
don't matter, don't try to catch a falling knife buying a stock that fell 40% or so in such a short time. there is a good reason.
|
|
|
03-23-2008, 08:42 PM
|
#3
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by thefed
for the record, im just curious...not intending to buy...but google has been sliding for quite some time and i wonder where it'll stop
what seems to be an appropriate value for goog, using p/e or whatever you'd use to determine that? as u can tell i dont read charts much....just wondering if google is reasonably priced yet
|
FWIW (more than you paid for it but not much more) Morningstar has increased their moat rating of Google from narrow to wide and increased their fair value from $550 to $625/share.
I know CEO Eric Schmidt from college, and a few subsquent meetings. I can say that he and the other Google folks I know all fall into the scary smart category. Now how to translate brains into share price is the $64,000 question.
Sounds like most technical analyst think the stock is going lower.
|
|
|
03-24-2008, 06:15 AM
|
#4
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
|
it has nothing to do with smart management, but the law of large numbers. google's growth rate is slowing and i guess at $750 or whatever the high was, it was priced for 110% perfection.
a large part of google's revenue base is also going belly up
the stock didn't drop 40% because all the fund managers think it's a screaming buy and will keep going higher. you always have these crazy fears that wall street uses to shake retail investors out of their shares and this is why you see 20% to 30% corrections every once in a while, but 40% is too deep
|
|
|
03-24-2008, 06:50 AM
|
#5
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
|
Perhaps you are right. But it is worth noting that AAPL a multi billion company dropped form ~35 to 5 during 2000, and had a nice recovery back to $135. On the other CSCO an INTC both took huge plunges and never recovered.
I thing it is safe to say that depending on growth rates, margins, and ability to expand into new business you can reasonable argue that Google is worth anything between $100 and $1,000
|
|
|
03-24-2008, 09:11 AM
|
#6
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
|
AAPL is a William O'Neill poster child. he says any stock you buy should have 3 years of 25% growth in EPS at the minimum. he also says to buy stock in companies with an IPO in the last 8 years, but Apple is an exception. Steve Jobs coming back was like a second life
Steve Jobs comes back in 1997 and by the time it started soaring in 2003 it had several years of great earnings
Cisco and Intel both had growth rates that plunged in 2000 just as Google is experiencing now. not that Google is going to be like P&G, but the hypergrowth days are over for now. there was some metric they reported a few months back that is not growing as fast as it used to and that's when they started falling
MS had something similar. IPO in 1986, shot up and then fell and was dead money for years until Windows 95/Windows NT4. I bet in a few years Google will soar again
|
|
|
03-24-2008, 07:37 PM
|
#7
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 50
|
Tough one, but here we go. If, (and that's a BIG IF), GOOG continues to sell at a 34 PE & hits their '09 est.of around $25.00. You could make a bull case for a stock selling at upwards of $800.00!
For what it's worth, I continue to add to my position. My avg. price now is around $471.00. GOOG closed at $460.00 today. TREMENDOUS premiums available on both the Call & Put side. Significant intraday moves make this a trader's delight. Tight stops are mandatory, IMO, if you decide to play along.
In any event, please continue to do your own DD. Best of luck!!
FMH
|
|
|
03-25-2008, 12:33 AM
|
#8
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 524
|
I set aside a small percentage of my portfolio for stock picks. The thing that's always kept me from buying Google is that the switching costs are virtually nothing. If a newcomer or current player introduce breakthough technology goog could be in serious trouble (the next Altavista.) If they continue to dominate, it's likely that the stock will do well.
|
|
|
03-25-2008, 08:19 AM
|
#9
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,052
|
OK, I'm going to pat myself on the back on this one. I suggested shorting GOOG when it was near $700 (see my short plays thread), and buy it at $419. I think it's going back to around $540. JMO though.
|
|
|
03-25-2008, 08:40 AM
|
#10
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Northern, Florida
Posts: 925
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Art G
OK, I'm going to pat myself on the back on this one. I suggested shorting GOOG when it was near $700 (see my short plays thread), and buy it at $419. I think it's going back to around $540. JMO though.
|
So do you recommend shorting it again @ $540?
__________________
Retired in 2006 at age 49.
"Who among us is smart enough to learn from the mistakes of others?" - Voltaire
|
|
|
03-25-2008, 08:47 AM
|
#11
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,052
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick
So do you recommend shorting it again @ $540?
|
LOL! Thinking ahead? I can't say yet. Often times stocks make that inverted "N" on the chart and the stock plummets, but also, often times they test their support then head off to make new highs. I'd have to wait now to see how it does when it tests its' resistance.
BTW, a very insteresting stock right now is TNH. If it breaks below $100, I think it continues down below $70. However, if it holds these current levels, then watch for $200. My bet is it drops to $70, but I'm not betting with money right now (unfortunately, TNH doesn't offer options). JMO
|
|
|
03-25-2008, 10:31 AM
|
#12
|
Confused about dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 9
|
Interesting,
I was lucky enough to sell at near high of $729., and I am glad I did. Any company which is solely dependent on advertising is going to take a hit in a recession where the first thing companies do is cut their advertising costs. Since CountryWide was multi million dollar a month spender with PayPerClick industry, and now near bankrupt, no doubt the financial sector is pulling back on advertising, so I expect Google to continue slide for rest of year, so a buying opportunity will again come around in time.
Good luck to all, Mike
|
|
|
04-16-2008, 09:55 AM
|
#13
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,052
|
It looks like GOOG is reversing back down. It may be a hiccup, but I'd rather be on the sidelines with it right now. JMO.
|
|
|
04-17-2008, 02:40 PM
|
#14
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
|
Well I guess they did pretty well today on their report.
|
|
|
04-17-2008, 04:14 PM
|
#15
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
|
they only beat revenue because of the fall in the dollar
we'll see how they do next week
|
|
|
04-17-2008, 04:28 PM
|
#16
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
|
Up 70 in after hours to $526
Funny I was looking at amazing volitality of Google options yesterday and wondering if would make sense to sell a straddle. Deciding that it was too risky and today I know why I came to that conclusion!
|
|
|
04-17-2008, 06:41 PM
|
#17
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
|
maybe one of the pro's can answer this
every year google spends a lot of money on capital expenditures. probably data centers and stuff like that. unless they count it in cost of revenues, i can't see where they are taking it as an expense
|
|
|
04-18-2008, 08:02 AM
|
#18
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,052
|
WOW! Missed it by this much! Got out one day early and it hits flat dab at the resistance line today.
We'll see if there is any way they break through. Might be a very good sign for the market if they can.
|
|
|
04-18-2008, 12:51 PM
|
#19
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Northern, Florida
Posts: 925
|
GOOG @ $540.46 now. So does that mean it's going up or down from here? :confused:
__________________
Retired in 2006 at age 49.
"Who among us is smart enough to learn from the mistakes of others?" - Voltaire
|
|
|
04-18-2008, 12:54 PM
|
#20
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,052
|
Geez, I lost out out on a lot of money by selling my calls a couple days ago. I'd wait to see if GOOG can break through the resistance here. I don't think there's any hurry to buy right now. JMO
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|