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Old 08-24-2015, 08:50 AM   #61
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I don't see it.

Unlike 08, there is no major financial crisis causing the market panic. This is a crisis of confidence as the result of a multi-year run up in stock prices. By comparison, it "should" reach bottom reasonably soon - but that doesn't mean it won't be ugly.
I think you have it pegged. Sometimes selling begets selling until the players are exhausted.

And maybe investors are so tired of waiting for the Fed to raise interest rates they decided to have a tantrum.

Some big players caught on margin. This and that. But there doesn't seem to be any pending crisis or news to precipitate a big sell off. China has been slowing for years. Oil went bust almost a year ago. Nothing on the Europe front. No new ebola outbreak.
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Old 08-24-2015, 08:55 AM   #62
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Right. Panic selling and forced selling are very different beasts. This seems like a minor panic to me... Not margin calls and infinite deep holes shutting down entire industries.

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Old 08-24-2015, 09:06 AM   #63
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I think you have it pegged. Sometimes selling begets selling until the players are exhausted.

And maybe investors are so tired of waiting for the Fed to raise interest rates they decided to have a tantrum.

Some big players caught on margin. This and that. But there doesn't seem to be any pending crisis or news to precipitate a big sell off. China has been slowing for years. Oil went bust almost a year ago. Nothing on the Europe front. No new ebola outbreak.

Exactly what we talked about this time last year in the other "10% correction thread". Oil was tanking and the ebola outbreak happened. China was already decreasing.

Reaches for bag of popcorn....this could be good; finger over buy button!
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Old 08-24-2015, 11:46 AM   #64
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I love that pic! I'm hoping that you are right about me being clairvoyant because my nestegg could use a nice boost after buying my dream house this summer.

Maybe because I am on Social Security this time, with a paid off home as well as lower expenses due to being retired, the idea of a major crash honestly doesn't bother me NEARLY as much as it did in 2008. We'll all be fine. Those of us who have "been there, done that" can remind the others that it isn't the end of the world.

I like having a nice cash cushion to invest during such a crash so I'm all set in that respect.
I didn't realize you started SS; I'm still on the fence on when to start. Your situation sounds ideal to me and yes, we've learned the lesson of not to get too nervous over times like this. In 2009, I looked at it as a buying opportunity and we may be at a similar opportunity at this point, although I am going to wait a little while longer. I was tempted at the opening though.
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Old 08-24-2015, 11:53 AM   #65
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I didn't realize you started SS; I'm still on the fence on when to start.
When I reached FRA, I claimed half of my ex-husband's SS. That won't affect what he gets. My own SS will continue to grow until age 70, when I plan to claim it instead.

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Your situation sounds ideal to me and yes, we've learned the lesson of not to get too nervous over times like this. In 2009, I looked at it as a buying opportunity and we may be at a similar opportunity at this point, although I am going to wait a little while longer. I was tempted at the opening though.
Yeah, instead of the Dow being down over 1000 (as it was earlier), now it is only down 193. Not as much of a buying opportunity as I had hoped. Oh well. Easy come, easy go.
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Old 08-24-2015, 05:03 PM   #66
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But it did end up down 600. I pushed in a bit of excess cash after the close (I try not to do anything during trading day).

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Old 08-24-2015, 06:16 PM   #67
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I think the oil price issue, while disruptive, is relatively small potatoes compared to what happened to banking/financial systems in 08.
Credit analysts at UBS say there are $1.2 trillion outstanding in loans to the U.S. oil industry!
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Old 08-24-2015, 07:12 PM   #68
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oil loans sold to "investors".. who took the bait?
Banks Struggle to Unload Oil Loans - WSJ
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Old 08-24-2015, 07:22 PM   #69
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Somebody wake me up when the S&P is down 25% or more. I may do some buying at that time.

Where is a new Luis Rukeyser when we need him?

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Old 08-24-2015, 10:50 PM   #70
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This is the first downturn since I retired almost 2.5 years ago. I have been out enjoying the wilderness too much to even have noticed the downturn until today. We have enough in cash, Ibonds and a variety of other things to worry about this.

Now, back to having fun
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Old 08-25-2015, 03:27 AM   #71
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Saw somewhere that the market went down 5-10% in 2011.

I don't recall that, anyone? Of course I was working then.
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Old 08-25-2015, 03:58 AM   #72
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Saw somewhere that the market went down 5-10% in 2011.

I don't recall that, anyone? Of course I was working then.
Yes, I remember - during the year. It was the start of the Euro crisis. S&P500 market index ended up only down fractionally for the year though, essentially flat. Total return on the S&P500 was 2% that year once you included dividends.

You can see a graph here. S&P 500 Unchanged for 2011 - MarketBeat - WSJ
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Old 08-25-2015, 09:21 AM   #73
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On 2011/08/08, the Dow dropped 635 points (only 4 years ago!). The S&P was down 6.7%.

The above is from my diary. I did not note what event prompted it, however.
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Old 08-27-2015, 10:57 AM   #74
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I think the bigger item that is about to happen is long term treasury bonds getting hammered. There are just too many countries that are going to be needing funds and instead of treasury bonds being a source of safety they may be a source of funds to shore up local economies.

Stocks could get hammered too, it would be different from 2007-2009 in that bonds from here have great potential for major declines meaning if the same type of fall occurred portfolio damage might be quite a bit larger.
Bloomberg business reporting China selling treasuries and plans to sell more for remainder of year, I am expecting a decent rise in 30 year treasuries somewhere near 4 percent would not be unexpected by early next year.

China Sells U.S. Treasuries to SupportĀ*Yuan - Bloomberg Business
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Old 08-27-2015, 12:09 PM   #75
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Bloomberg business reporting China selling treasuries and plans to sell more for remainder of year, I am expecting a decent rise in 30 year treasuries somewhere near 4 percent would not be unexpected by early next year.

China Sells U.S. Treasuries to SupportĀ*Yuan - Bloomberg Business
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I think the bigger item that is about to happen is long term treasury bonds getting hammered. There are just too many countries that are going to be needing funds and instead of treasury bonds being a source of safety they may be a source of funds to shore up local economies.

Stocks could get hammered too, it would be different from 2007-2009 in that bonds from here have great potential for major declines meaning if the same type of fall occurred portfolio damage might be quite a bit larger.

So you're betting that this is just a short term bounce and more blood is on the horizon?
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Old 08-27-2015, 08:29 PM   #76
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Down almost 200k last week & backup 110k today. Still in the red but no sweat right? I apologized for ranting.
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Old 09-01-2015, 09:57 AM   #77
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Markets down again triple digits because of another set of China data.

Investors jumping whenever the Chinese sneeze?

One narrative seems to be that the Chinese can't run their economy. Hmm, what exactly are they suppose to be doing? They've devalued and injected liquidity.

And the prospect of 25 basis points by the Fed is also making people jittery?
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Old 09-01-2015, 10:19 AM   #78
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I just reinvested my dividends accumulated this year. Just to contain my buying enthusiasm.

If this drops goes much further (S&P 1800?) I'm bringing out some reinforcements.
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Old 09-01-2015, 10:21 AM   #79
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Oh no! Look at China, the global economy is slowing!!!!

Oh no! The US economy is doing OK. That means the Fed is going to rate rates!!!!

In other words - all news is bad news.....

So the emotional "logic" of the markets often goes.
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Old 09-01-2015, 10:35 AM   #80
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Oh no! Look at China, the global economy is slowing!!!!

Oh no! The US economy is doing OK. That means the Fed is going to rate rates!!!!

In other words - all news is bad news.....

So the emotional "logic" of the markets often goes.
Right. Add to that the need to correlate the news of the day with the changes in the capital markets around the world.
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