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Old 06-01-2007, 09:53 AM   #21
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Yeah, that's why I cannot figure out what the bond market is doing. Everything I see suggests that we are headed for Fed easing amid a sluggish economy. Yet the bond market has sold off and the equity market is behaving as if the party will never end.

2 year treasuries at 5% or similar tenor agencies at a bit more spread are starting to look awfully attractive...
I still think it's starting to look like 1999, without the tech bubble. Problem is, now we have blue chips looking like bubble stocks.............
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Old 06-01-2007, 10:27 AM   #22
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Sooo - RTM wise what stocks/asset classes do I look at now? After 1999 my water utes got bought out - I wasn't bright enough to sell so I made money inspite of myself.

So what's cheap? I've stopped buying Aetna/Union Pacific. Are there low/non bubble asset classes to go shopping in?

heh heh heh - and the next ten bagger(ala Peter Lynch) is ??
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Old 06-01-2007, 10:40 AM   #23
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I do not see much that looks cheap, aside from small and midsized retail banks.
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Old 06-01-2007, 11:01 AM   #24
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So what you are saying is you have NO individual stock holdings? I find that hard to believe..........
Bupkus. And i'm the guy who used to have a knee high stack of transaction reports at tax time.

I was a friggin genius in 1998 and 1999. Backing into REITS and DODBX/OAKBX/Wellesley in 2000-2002 was luck.

Around 2003 I figured out that I didnt really know a damn thing, and if I thought I did, someone else knew something I didnt and that broke the deal.

Everything else was just luck of the draw and not being a moron.
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Old 06-01-2007, 12:31 PM   #25
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Bupkus. And i'm the guy who used to have a knee high stack of transaction reports at tax time.

I was a friggin genius in 1998 and 1999. Backing into REITS and DODBX/OAKBX/Wellesley in 2000-2002 was luck.

Around 2003 I figured out that I didnt really know a damn thing, and if I thought I did, someone else knew something I didnt and that broke the deal.

Everything else was just luck of the draw and not being a moron.
Except for the specific mutual funds listed, CFB wrote my post for me.
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Old 06-01-2007, 01:20 PM   #26
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I guess I do have something to add.... (what a surprise)

I've been involved in many "sophisticated" investments in my time and they usually just didn't seem to turn out like they were supposed to. With a little selective memory, I pretty much rocked on until I started seeing articles about the benefits of index investing. When I pulled together my returns over a number of years, it was pretty clear that I'd have been much better off asset allocating in indexes.

I'm now in a low stress situation that nets me a better return. I do miss the excitement of a "hot stock" but I'm just about over it. My basic approach now is to worship liquidity and low fees. If I ever get over $5MM or so I might revisit the need for high liquidity in all investments (other than my home).
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Old 06-01-2007, 02:39 PM   #27
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I guess I go for a little flavor in my portfolio, but it's pretty easy to do with the tools I have..........

Qualified accounts are ALL in mutual funds. Non-qualified, I use a combination of individual sitcks, ETF's and a few target UIT strategies.
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