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Here It Is -- HOTSTOCK.BOMB
Old 05-31-2007, 09:13 PM   #1
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Here It Is -- HOTSTOCK.BOMB

Oh well, I guess this is another benefit of the new forum. I know there are stock pickers out there but our earlier forum toasted the benefits of low cost index mutual funds. At least that tends to be the current theory on how the typical wage slave can get to FIRE.

Again, oh well, I've done it all -- technical analysis, fundamental analysis, hot tips, naked/covered calls, futures, commodities, etc. My best and most consistent returns have been after I moved to index mutual funds.

Have fun with the hot tips and wonderful shooting stars. Please do what it took me decades to do. Keep track of your actual annualized return during all this and compare it to a blended portfolio (not just the S&P) at least annually. Look at a 5 to 10 year return. It's much easier now but it still requires attention. The denial factor was huge in my case and delayed my transition for several years.
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Old 05-31-2007, 09:58 PM   #2
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Ying and Yang wise - using a large hand grenade and not a lot of picky math - skins and and shirts wise - I had roughly 60/40 balanced index vs the Norwegian widow dividend stocks - 1989 to 2006 and I won't say who has the series lead but neither blew the other decisively out of the water such that I would cut an infomercial/write a book/ try to rent a villa in the Bahamas in Sir John Templeton land.

So as of Jan 2006 it's roughly handgrenade wise:

85% Target Retirement 2015 and and 15% a few wild specs:

Aqua America, Aetna, AT&T, Borg Warner, Bandag, Bank of America, Consolidated Edison, Chevron, Citigroup, Del Monte, Dominion, Dow Chemical, Empire District Electric, Exxon mobile, Exelon, Emerson electric, Flowers, Glaxo, Kaman, KSE, Eli Lilly, J P Morgan, J M Smucker, (new plan reality got bought), Nuccor, National Fuel Gas, United Dominion Reality, Union Pacific, VFC, and Washington REIT, Stonemore, and Eagle Bulk Shipping -all in varying amounts, never rebalanced, dividends mostly reinvested - hormones run free.

Heck - I'll probably keep putzing no matter how bad Target(balanced index) stomps them. It's a hormone/loyalty/hobby more fun than golf thing.

heh heh heh - To my late Father - they were always 'dose Brooklyn bums' long after they moved to California and his sentimental underdog. Remember - it only takes one good stock/a few good years - 'never tell me the odds.'
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Old 05-31-2007, 10:24 PM   #3
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2B I suspect you are probably right, in my case other than Intel. I seriously doubt that I am beating the market.


My question is what tools do I use to track the market. Comparing my portfolio to the S*P or Wilshire 5000 seem unfair because I have a moderate 30% bond position and a large number of dividend stocks. I've used MS Money in the past, and currently use the Schwab, Vanguard, Morningstar porfolio tools. But none seem to do a good job with dividends, stock split, much less handle the benefits of my fairly tax efficient portfolio, (Muni's, MLPs etc.).
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Old 06-01-2007, 06:47 AM   #4
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Speak for yourself. I have been kickng the crap out of the market for years.
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Old 06-01-2007, 07:21 AM   #5
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I'm more in Unclemick's camp. Blend of mutual funds with a handful of individual stocks for fun. Not enough to do any real damage if I bomb.
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Old 06-01-2007, 08:49 AM   #6
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2B I suspect you are probably right, in my case other than Intel. I seriously doubt that I am beating the market.

And to be fair, when Intel was flying high, it was trailing the rest of the nasdaq somewhat. I remember Grove grumbling "We've got the 'E'...where the hell is the 'P'?!?" after looking at cisco and microsoft stock run-ups...


I've found that people who 'beat the market' are doing some selection as to the time period, which 'market' they're beating, and probably forgot one or two big losers.
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Old 06-01-2007, 08:57 AM   #7
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I've given up stock picking, but feel no compunction to piss in anyone's Wheaties rain on anyone's parade...
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Old 06-01-2007, 09:06 AM   #8
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I've given up stock picking, but feel no compunction to piss in anyone's Wheaties rain on anyone's parade...
Aw, c'mon, its the nearest thing TH has to a hobby...
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Old 06-01-2007, 09:11 AM   #9
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Oh come on, I do nothing of the sort.

Otherwise I'd be bringing up MOVI and BBI...

Are those in that tracking database?
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Old 06-01-2007, 09:11 AM   #10
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Aw, c'mon, its the nearest thing TH has to a hobby...
What, with 14 brazzilion posts, obsessive moving of furniture, and placing food items on animals' heads, he seems pretty occupied to me...
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Old 06-01-2007, 09:16 AM   #11
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Are those in that tracking database?
Neither are any of the things that have made me the most money in the past couple of years.

Don't you have limes to squeeze or something?
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Old 06-01-2007, 09:18 AM   #12
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Did that yesterday. Might have to do it again later...nothing like fresh juice!
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Old 06-01-2007, 09:24 AM   #13
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Hey -

never underrate a guy who may yet bring us lobsters with chickens!

heh heh heh - . There are statistics and then there is the Postscript chapter of Ben Graham's Intelligent Investor. It only takes one.

I forgot/missed Verizon on my other post - don't buy it - my ownership is the kiss of death for a stock - unless I got the tip from Brew!
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Old 06-01-2007, 09:29 AM   #14
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And to be fair, when Intel was flying high, it was trailing the rest of the nasdaq somewhat. I remember Grove grumbling "We've got the 'E'...where the hell is the 'P'?!?" after looking at cisco and microsoft stock run-ups...


I've found that people who 'beat the market' are doing some selection as to the time period, which 'market' they're beating, and probably forgot one or two big losers.
Hope you cashed your options at the right time..........

As far as "beating the market", there are different ways to attack that monster.

In 2000, the BEST asset class was U.S. Treasuries, which returned 17% in a huge "FLIGHT TO QUALITY".

How did index funds do in 2000-2002? Not very well. There were some smart managers that went to cash, and saved their shareholders a lot of pain........

However, with the recent run-up, ALL THOSE LESSONS are forgotten..........
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Old 06-01-2007, 09:32 AM   #15
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In 2000, the BEST asset class was U.S. Treasuries, which returned 17% in a huge "FLIGHT TO QUALITY".

How did index funds do in 2000-2002? Not very well. There were some smart managers that went to cash, and saved their shareholders a lot of pain........

However, with the recent run-up, ALL THOSE LESSONS are forgotten..........
I will say that if treasury yields go north of 5% again, it will start being awfully attractive to buy some treasries and agencies...
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Old 06-01-2007, 09:33 AM   #16
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2B,
I think you are spot on for the vast majority of people in the world - invest in a balanced portfolio of low cost mutual funds.

I would also add that this method saves time, emotional health and peace of mind.
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Old 06-01-2007, 09:36 AM   #17
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I will say that if treasury yields go north of 5% again, it will start being awfully attractive to buy some treasries and agencies...
Hey brewer, can you "uninvert" the yield curve for me? Because until that happens, I am still concerned..........

We all know how "great" things got when the yield curve was inverted last time..............
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Old 06-01-2007, 09:38 AM   #18
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Hope you cashed your options at the right time..........
About 35c shy of the all time high. Combination of pure luck and chicken-**** over the level the nasdaq had hit.

But hell, if INTC had reached the PE levels of a lot of other tech companies, I could afford to hire someone to type this stuff in.

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As far as "beating the market", there are different ways to attack that monster.

In 2000, the BEST asset class was U.S. Treasuries, which returned 17% in a huge "FLIGHT TO QUALITY".

How did index funds do in 2000-2002? Not very well. There were some smart managers that went to cash, and saved their shareholders a lot of pain........

However, with the recent run-up, ALL THOSE LESSONS are forgotten..........

See, we're looking at slices of time and specific market segments.

Show me that everything you've bought and sold over the last 15 years has beaten a similar asset allocation split of TSM and TBM, and i'll be impressed.
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Old 06-01-2007, 09:43 AM   #19
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Hey brewer, can you "uninvert" the yield curve for me? Because until that happens, I am still concerned..........

We all know how "great" things got when the yield curve was inverted last time..............
Yeah, that's why I cannot figure out what the bond market is doing. Everything I see suggests that we are headed for Fed easing amid a sluggish economy. Yet the bond market has sold off and the equity market is behaving as if the party will never end.

2 year treasuries at 5% or similar tenor agencies at a bit more spread are starting to look awfully attractive...
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Old 06-01-2007, 09:51 AM   #20
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About 35c shy of the all time high. Combination of pure luck and chicken-**** over the level the nasdaq had hit.
Unfortunately, Intel became the "red-headed stepchild" of sorts as a tech bellweather. They still have that image, although I think companies like AMD took some chunks out of their hide............

Quote:
But hell, if INTC had reached the PE levels of a lot of other tech companies, I could afford to hire someone to type this stuff in.
And I would be FIRED............


Quote:
See, we're looking at slices of time and specific market segments.

Show me that everything you've bought and sold over the last 15 years has beaten a similar asset allocation split of TSM and TBM, and i'll be impressed.
I think it is behavioral finance at play. It is tough to argue that if someone had invested $1000 in HD in 1990 versus a combination of TSM/TBM, they would have made tons more money. However, they would have taken a HUGE risk to do it.

So what you are saying is you have NO individual stock holdings? I find that hard to believe..........
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