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Old 10-11-2017, 02:31 PM   #81
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Opened and closed under $5 today. Taking a breath or gasping for air?
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Old 10-11-2017, 02:45 PM   #82
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Not sure. I would guess taking a breath since there is no news positive or negative. I feared it might run back to the $4 area. I am making fat buck though in CLSN, up some $4000 today. Biotech is getting dangerously fun.
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Old 10-11-2017, 03:05 PM   #83
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Congrats on CLSN.
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Old 10-13-2017, 10:39 AM   #84
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Anyone been buying on in the daily dips? Those thinking it has legs back to $6 would see nearly 40% profit.
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Old 10-14-2017, 08:56 AM   #85
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Endocyte has certainly crashed back to the $4s. They filed a shelf registration (not a offering yet) for $150m of stock which really cratered the price. I had hoped they would not do this until next year after they were into phase III on their new drug candidate. If they were to try and get $150m now, they would need to issue 50m shares at $3 or so, which would double the number of outstanding shares (huge dilution).

My big hope (which is really grasping at straws) is they want to get this set up legally so they can immediately sell into a pop on some form of news they know is coming soon. The last time they did an offering they timed it perfectly and sold into a pop to near $30 a share.

This is a tough segment to be invested. You don't *really* know if they are doing things just to continue paying their salary or if they actually are doing things to advance the drug pipeline.
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Old 10-15-2017, 09:07 AM   #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fermion View Post
My big hope (which is really grasping at straws) is they want to get this set up legally so they can immediately sell into a pop on some form of news they know is coming soon. The last time they did an offering they timed it perfectly and sold into a pop to near $30 a share.
First I'm not aware of what cause the pops and drops in the past for Endocyte as I haven't tracked it, just more intrigued with recent pops in value.

As I look back at the charts, this had a quick pop from $15 to about $30/share in late March 2014. The in April there was issuance of 5 million shares (or roughly the same $150 million in value as this shelf offering). So timing of last issues did tie with the historic high stock price level so you could be onto something there.

The downside is within a few weeks after the new issues were offered the stock dropped to $6 range; the $150 million value in new issues was essentially vaporized along with $1.5 billion of value in the prior shares. Since then, this has been on a downward slippery slope to around a buck (exception being this recent nudge up). Using historical views it looks like once new shares are issued get out quickly.
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Old 10-15-2017, 09:23 AM   #87
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Yes, I think I will just bite the bullet and pay the taxes and full boat on ACA next year if I get a chance to sell during a really high pop. I may not get to that $30 a share but it was always kind of a pipe dream. A few months ago I was going to be overjoyed if they got bought out for $2.50 cash value!
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Old 01-25-2018, 01:31 AM   #88
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ECYT down another 14% today, to $3.46. Fermion, I'm curious: Are you still invested?

I saw that you still hold it in our little trading game, and there Endocyte hasn't been too good to you...
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Old 01-25-2018, 06:39 AM   #89
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Yes, I still have 10,000 shares, although I did sell Jan $5 and $6 calls against them that have now expired. I made about $7,000 profit on those calls which will go toward 2018 income. I figured there would be no news by Jan 2018 and I was correct.

My cost basis (aside from the calls) is $1.41 so even if I were to sell the rest now there are significant ACA side effects.

My shaky prediction is the current drop is a fund or shareholder group unloading into a very light market (there was no real volume on the drop). When/if they announce the phase 3 trial start I think it goes back to $5 to $6 a share.

It is a hard world to predict. I just made about $8,000 in my IRA on JUNO because I thought they would get bought by Celgene and presto, they did. I miscalculated though and did a call spread so only made 120% profit instead of a possible 400% if I had not sold the short leg (I did a $35/$45 bull call spread for Jan 2019 expiration and JUNO just got bought for $87)
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Old 01-25-2018, 07:00 AM   #90
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Thanks for the update! Seems you're doing quite OK. Best of luck with ECYT, and others.
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Old 02-28-2018, 09:02 AM   #91
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Annnnnddd...Endocyte is back in the $5.50s, just like that.

I sold 2000 shares for a $8k gain, which coupled with some other gains (those calls that expired worthless) I am sitting at $21,400 in cap gains already for 2018 with a ACA MAGI target of $24,000.

In other words, I need to not make much money for the rest of 2018!

Still holding 8,000 shares of Endocyte.

I don't know why they spiked quite so much, volume is like 11 million shares traded already with normal volume of 500k. Might be the guy they hired from Medivation...
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Old 02-28-2018, 10:49 AM   #92
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Hmm, I am going to hold my measly 600 shares I bought on your rec at less than $2. Just some play money. If I get enough to fund the ROTH IRA for 2018 I will sell. That's only 10-11 per share. It might get there.
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Old 03-03-2018, 10:28 AM   #93
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While I would never recommend anyone follow me down the biotech rabbit hole (look at my results in the Boho contest shorting KITE!), I am glad you are making a little money on your Endocyte purchase Bigdawg.

Friday Endocyte hit a new high, closed at $6.50. The trading volume has been insane and seemed to totally ignore the $4.20 offering that raised 80m (on top of the 97m they still have cash on hand).

I have sold off enough now to fully fund 2018 ACA MAGI (actually a tad more than I needed). There is a lot of gain when you sell a $6.50 stock that you bought for $1.41. I still have 7,000 shares left with an unrealized gain of over $35k. It is going to take another 2 years to sell it off without paying tax. First world ER problems, huh?

If they get bought I hope it is for something around $1.5B which would put the shares at $20 each and give me some extra money to pay taxes.
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Holy moly! I hit the lotto! (sort of)
Old 03-13-2018, 01:33 PM   #94
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Holy moly! I hit the lotto! (sort of)

Fermion,
You gotta be ecstatic at what ECYT has done in the last week. Far as I can tell no major news. Must be some inside rumors flying around or something.
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Old 03-15-2018, 08:42 PM   #95
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Whoa, $10.34 per share!
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Old 05-20-2018, 11:20 AM   #96
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Last week Endocyte hit $14.80

I am still holding 6000 shares (sold 1000 more at $10.50) but dang I wish I had held onto a few more than that.

Still a great increase, $1.40 to $14.80

In a few months they will be LTCG
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