Looking at the country as a whole, there's still a significant excess of SF housing units available relative to the demand created by population growth, immigration and household formation. The "shadow market" of foreclosure, REO's etc. is still at historical highs.
Yes, home builders may be at or near their bottom. Some of their markets may have some building that has increased from the lows. And interests rates are certainly not going to create a headwind in the immediate future. But overall I'm not optimistic about a rise in their share prices anytime soon.
No insight on Lowe's or HD, other than I like their prospects better than homebuilders.
Good coverage of housing issues on this blog: