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Old 04-14-2019, 09:54 AM   #41
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... and how much would 100 shares of Enron be worth?

About as much as the 100 shares of World Comm I held because my broker kept insisting they would rebound. . . . .
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Old 04-14-2019, 10:05 AM   #42
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... and how much would 100 shares of Enron be worth?
Why would anyone with the gift of hindsight buy Enron?
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Old 04-14-2019, 10:10 AM   #43
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... my broker kept insisting they would rebound. . . . .
One of life's little mysteries for me is why all these market experts with accurate crystal balls are still stuffing themselves into suits, going to work in what amounts to being a noisy call center, and hustling retail clients. I guess they must be completely selfless individuals, motiviated to freely bestow the wisdom that they could otherwise use to make themselves FI and ER'd. A sort of financial Mother Teresa.
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Old 04-14-2019, 11:32 AM   #44
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The investment club I'm in has been around for 35 years. Investing in growth stocks it average annual return is the same as the sp 500 give or take a very small amount. One of the reasons I'm moving my investments to fidelity to take advantage of the zero expense index funds. I also invest in dividend growth stocks. Virtually all of our investments are in roth IRAs. The 5% dividend yield will be invested back into index funds.
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Old 04-15-2019, 02:23 PM   #45
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One of life's little mysteries for me is why all these market experts with accurate crystal balls are still stuffing themselves into suits, going to work in what amounts to being a noisy call center, and hustling retail clients. I guess they must be completely selfless individuals, motiviated to freely bestow the wisdom that they could otherwise use to make themselves FI and ER'd. A sort of financial Mother Teresa.
I've mentioned this in other threads, but will repeat it here. One of my early lessons in investing back in the late 70's was going to the local brokerage at lunch time to see the quote machine. Over time, I got to meet the brokers working there and spend time discussing securities with them. I quickly came to the conclusion that there was absolutely no value in listening to their so-called knowledge.

Even today, when I have someone tell me "My investment adviser told me this was a good company to invest in, what do you think?" I cringe. For all of those people, my only advice (which I try to keep myself from offering as I don't want to have anything to do with their financial affairs) is to invest in low-cost index funds.
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Old 04-15-2019, 02:28 PM   #46
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Why would anyone with the gift of hindsight buy Enron?
I never owned Enron (happily). One of the reasons is that it fell in my "I don't understand" category. If the companies business model is too complex to understand HOW they will make money, stay far away.
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Old 04-15-2019, 03:01 PM   #47
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One of life's little mysteries for me is why all these market experts with accurate crystal balls are still stuffing themselves into suits, going to work in what amounts to being a noisy call center, and hustling retail clients. I guess they must be completely selfless individuals, motiviated to freely bestow the wisdom that they could otherwise use to make themselves FI and ER'd. A sort of financial Mother Teresa.
I often wonder the same thing about passive investors, you'd think they'd be off spending their wealth and time saved on the finer things in life not looking for individual stock boards to claim how wrong everybody but passive investors are.
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Old 04-15-2019, 03:47 PM   #48
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I often wonder the same thing about passive investors, you'd think they'd be off spending their wealth and time saved on the finer things in life not looking for individual stock boards to claim how wrong everybody but passive investors are.
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Old 04-15-2019, 04:07 PM   #49
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I often wonder the same thing about passive investors, you'd think they'd be off spending their wealth and time saved on the finer things in life not looking for individual stock boards to claim how wrong everybody but passive investors are.
So you did take your nasty pill this morning, right? Or are you like this without supplements? And you are here -- why?

Nobody's really "wrong" but many are suboptimal. There is about 50 years of statistical data and academic studies to support the thesis that passive is optimal, especially for long-term investors.

Obviously you think differently. Please provide links to the studies and statistics that support your superior strategy. No anecdotes, please. Anecdotes are not data.

IIRC you think the passive story is some kind of plot. If that's still the case please explain your plot theory and, particularly, how two decades of S&P SPIVA studies and S&P Manager Persistence studies have been manipulated. Also please explain how the Nobel Prize committee was manipulated to give awards to academics who you have said are paid to lie and mislead the public.
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Old 04-15-2019, 04:15 PM   #50
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So you did take your nasty pill this morning, right? Or are you like this without supplements? And you are here -- why?

Nobody's really "wrong" but many are suboptimal. There is about 50 years of statistical data and academic studies to support the thesis that passive is optimal, especially for long-term investors.

Obviously you think differently. Please provide links to the studies and statistics that support your superior strategy. No anecdotes, please. Anecdotes are not data.

IIRC you think the passive story is some kind of plot. If that's still the case please explain your plot theory and, particularly, how two decades of S&P SPIVA studies and S&P Manager Persistence studies have been manipulated. Also please explain how the Nobel Prize committee was manipulated to give awards to academics who you have said are paid to lie and mislead the public.
I was just tweaking you, you are right that is not too nice, Notre Dame fires got me down. I have nothing against passive investing.
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Old 04-15-2019, 05:30 PM   #51
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I was just tweaking you, you are right that is not too nice, Notre Dame fires got me down. I have nothing against passive investing.
I found it funny, and just *knew* when I read your post that he would be quickly responding.

Shooter, I hope you know we are just having some fun with you.
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Old 04-15-2019, 05:41 PM   #52
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OK. myfatherplaysdominosbetterthanyourfatherplaysdomin os. You are both forgiven.
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Old 04-15-2019, 06:30 PM   #53
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i am not against passive ( index ) investing , i have some index funds , which i use as an insurance strategy .

but i need to force growth , so i decided to try to 'cherry-pick '

after all the local ASX top 200 ( XJO ) is the 200 largest companies measured by market capitalization and some of these companies still haven't made an after-tax profit , since listing , so includes companies a careful investor might choose to avoid
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Old 04-15-2019, 06:31 PM   #54
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Research. Common sense. A good set of dice.
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Old 04-15-2019, 07:14 PM   #55
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It has been discussed before but there is a book entitled the little book that beats the market whose author was a very successful fund manager.

The author explains his logic simply on how his stock are picked. A small amount of my money is invested using his screening of companies on his website. (free to use if registered).
He also explains why most people will not use his method even if they believe in it over time.

I did a scan yesterday and his site came up with 30 suggestions. I threw out the outliers and the ones that did not have a dividend. I looked at market cap, average volume, dividend yield, earnings per share, and price/book to come up with my five.

Of the following 5 stock I will probably buy into one in the next week or two.
dlx, gild, omc, pets, viab. Or I might buy fixed income.

The author suggests baskets of things where the duds are overwhelmed by the winners and has rules on when to get in and out. The problem with a stock tip, even if it is great, you never know when the tipster gets out. Also it is likely that people profit when we buy this way as in earlier than us.

It's sort of a fallen angel picking method. Right or wrong as to as effective as an index the main benefit to me is it gives me something I am willing to buy even if I think the overall market is too high for my comfort.

Finally some say no one should buy stock if they have less than 50k total to buy diversification (not just among these five, but entire types of investments),. keep % of investments low so a bad choice with not torpedo your efforts.

With enough rules of safety and what is a worthy stock to own you get a bit mutual fundish, but cost of transactions are much higher for you.
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Old 04-19-2019, 03:33 PM   #56
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Old 04-19-2019, 03:34 PM   #57
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First start investing with a Vanguard/Fidelity/Schwab S&P 500 or Total Stock Market index fund (or ETF equivalent). Stick with that until you have at least $10,000 in the fund.

Then while you are building that, "invest" on paper by pretending to buy $2,000 each in a variety of stocks, actively managed mutual funds and $2K in your 500 fund. Then keep track of these equities including news items, quarterly/annual reports and conference calls and dividends.

By doing this, you will learn investing terms and how much time you actually have to track investments. You will also learn your risk tolerance (as in a tendency to want to sell when the equity dives or buy more when soaring). You will also find out if your picks do better than just the boring S&P 500 fund. Until they do on a consistent basis, just stick with index funds.

You may also want to listen to various finance related podcasts like Paul Merriman, Bogelheads On Investing, Investing Insights, Mad Money with Jim Cramer, etc. To learn terms and increase your knowledge. But still, no matter what you hear is a great deal, do not invest any further until you have that 10K.

I have had one of my stocks for more than 40 years and a few I bought last month. I usually only buy 1-2 times a year. But I am in the process of going through my holdings and selling/buying ETFs (except ths that are currently beating the S&P 500 average). This is for tax efficiency and simplicity. As you get older, you need to structure things not only for heirs but in case you need to have someone handling your finances for a while. So the simpler, the better. I will have my equities structured so I draw down my traditional IRA first followed by my taxable portfolio and then my Roth. I am looking at the Paul Merriman strategies with the most volatile ETFs in the Roth.
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Old 04-19-2019, 05:57 PM   #58
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Motley Fool, Morningstar, Schwab, and GuruFocus are my idea sources and evaluation tools. I also read engineering and technical magazines and follow stocks from there.

Work load varies. I've jumped into positions I understood completely in 15 minutes. Some take me years to understand before I pulled the trigger.

Due to early mistakes in the 90's, I lagged the S&P badly. But I have done better over the years. I am just under 10% per year for 30 years, net worth after taxes fees food beer.

Good thing I over saved for retirement, with the career wipeout I should still be fine if I can avoid mistakes and stay on target.
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Old 04-19-2019, 06:00 PM   #59
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Strictly broadly diversified index funds here.
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Old 04-19-2019, 08:45 PM   #60
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I've been buying stocks here in Australia for my partner and myself all our working lives. That's about 38 years. Generally I've looked for stocks that will pay a regular and increasing dividend as the foundation to the portfolio.

I've kept an eye on stocks that have been historically good, but in a touch of trouble at the moment. I've watched which stocks respond to the whatever trend is happening at the time, be it gold boom, mineral boom, milk powder to China boom, medical technology boom. Over the years there have been 3 or 4 stand out stocks that have made a huge difference to the portfolio value. 2 of those have been medical related. In terms of how our assets compare to our peers who worked and invested in managed funds, we are about 6X better off.

After paying off the house, we've always invested nearly all our spare cash into stocks.

Having said that, there have been times where I've worried if a stock has gone down after I bought it. I had to actively stop that sort of thinking, and instead concentrate on what it is about that company that makes it worthwhile or not.

If you are planning to buy your own stocks, I'd suggest you to make friends with someone who can mentor you.
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