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Old 02-01-2016, 10:05 AM   #21
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Jeff Bezos is really smart and capable. I don't understand his strategy. He seems congenitally unable to make a profit - he instinctively takes razor thin margins to zero. But I wouldn't bet against him.
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Old 02-01-2016, 10:10 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by target2019 View Post
Can AMZN purchase the USPS?
I assume they are going to build their own delivery network.

The last few of my purchases were delivered by Amazon itself on sunday. This makes a lot of sense, with their volume they can cherrypick the most profitable areas and let USPS, UPS, Fedex deal with the rest.
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Old 02-01-2016, 10:13 AM   #23
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The problem with high-flying stocks is that they are priced for perfection. People pay more for fast growing earnings, or in this case fast growing sales. The moment they disappoint, the stock is taken out and shot. Yet, the growth can go on a lot longer, who knows?

I have seen too many examples to be very leery of high growth, high P/E stocks. Being as chicken as I am, if I bought, it would not be a large enough amount to make a dent in the portfolio either it goes up or down.
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Old 02-01-2016, 10:24 AM   #24
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The problem with high-flying stocks is that they are priced for perfection. People pay more for fast growing earnings, or in this case fast growing sales. The moment they disappoint, the stock is taken out and shot. Yet, the growth can go on a lot longer, who knows?

I have seen too many examples to be very leery of high growth, high P/E stocks. Being as chicken as I am, if I bought, it would not be a large enough amount to make a dent in the portfolio either it goes up or down.

Agree.... but I think that I own enough of this (and other high flyers) in my various mutual funds.... isn't that the reason we buy MFs?
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Old 02-01-2016, 10:37 AM   #25
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AMZN is into cloud storage, big data and retail. Seems like a strange mix but apparently its keeping the shareholders happy...for now. Looks like they are moving into SHIPPING as well, with some freighters on loan. I don't believe they are making autonomous vehicles...yet.
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Old 02-01-2016, 03:24 PM   #26
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I think at some point the laws of financial gravity will significantly slow amazons growth and then their P/E ratio will matter much more. That won't be a pretty day I think... But could also be many years or a decade sway. I don't like playing Russian roulette even at 5:1 payout .

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Old 02-03-2016, 05:15 PM   #27
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I think at some point the laws of financial gravity will significantly slow amazons growth and then their P/E ratio will matter much more. That won't be a pretty day I think... But could also be many years or a decade sway. I don't like playing Russian roulette even at 5:1 payout .

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Walmart(Has the cash) is going after Amazon and they are actually well positioned with stores in every zip code and their own warehouse delivery network already in place.

Amazon will win but Walmart could hurt Amazons profitability if they are actually successful and become a real online force.

Should be interesting to see if Walmart can pull this plan off within the next 5 years.
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Old 02-03-2016, 05:40 PM   #28
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Walmart(Has the cash) is going after Amazon and they are actually well positioned with stores in every zip code and their own warehouse delivery network already in place.

Amazon will win but Walmart could hurt Amazons profitability if they are actually successful and become a real online force.

Should be interesting to see if Walmart can pull this plan off within the next 5 years.
Once upon a time another store was the top dog in the US It started out as a mail order company sending catalogs (the older slower version of amazon), then just like rumors floating around it built retail stores. It then got huge and sloppy and look where it is today. Interestingly the first Sears model and Amazon are essentially the same if you change catalog and mail in orders for a web site, just a little slower in processing. Sears used both the USPS and the Railway express to ship. (USPS after parcel post was around), (recall that in the midwest in 1900 it was typically 10 miles to the nearest depot where REA express delivered)
I think Wal-Mart is about at maximum size doing an inverse to what Sears did going from stores to mail-order(web). Amazon seems to think the model sears followed is a good one, but history shows that the model eventually falls apart due to large size.
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Old 02-03-2016, 08:58 PM   #29
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I remember back in 2000 I had a conversation with one of my subordinates.. he had invested a lot of money in EMC.... it has skyrocketed....
I never thought it was fair to call it 'the Internet bubble'
Almost all stocks (especially large caps) were sucked up into the internet valuation vortex. If I remember correctly, small caps were actually severely undervalued. Everyone was pouring all their 401(k) money into the index 500 & expecting it to appreciate 20% a year forever.

I must've sensed that this would be something historic, because I scanned & saved this.




A couple that come to mind
GE 60$ early 2K Under 30$ sixteen years later
INTC 70$ Under 30$ sixteen years later

My greatest fear is that history tends to repeat itself, & we could go down to one of those low points on the chart someday.
I remember Joe Kernen, the long time CNBC business host talking one time.
Apparently he was a broker back in the early 80s. This isn't an exact quote, but he said something like this.

"No one was buying stocks, no one was selling stocks, nobody even wanted to talk about stocks"
I was too young to give a **** about stocks or the markets back then, but at least those that had money, had an alternative, the certificate of deposit.

The Federal Reserve destroyed that alternative a long time ago.
Thanks feds!
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Old 02-03-2016, 11:26 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by ownyourfuture View Post
I never thought it was fair to call it 'the Internet bubble'
Almost all stocks (especially large caps) were sucked up into the internet valuation vortex. If I remember correctly, small caps were actually severely undervalued. Everyone was pouring all their 401(k) money into the index 500 & expecting it to appreciate 20% a year forever.

I must've sensed that this would be something historic, because I scanned & saved this.




A couple that come to mind
GE 60$ early 2K Under 30$ sixteen years later
INTC 70$ Under 30$ sixteen years later

My greatest fear is that history tends to repeat itself, & we could go down to one of those low points on the chart someday.
I remember Joe Kernen, the long time CNBC business host talking one time.
Apparently he was a broker back in the early 80s. This isn't an exact quote, but he said something like this.

"No one was buying stocks, no one was selling stocks, nobody even wanted to talk about stocks"
I was too young to give a **** about stocks or the markets back then, but at least those that had money, had an alternative, the certificate of deposit.

The Federal Reserve destroyed that alternative a long time ago.
Thanks feds!

EMC was above $100... now less than $25...

AMZN was down to $8ish in 2001.... now $531 and was up to $696...


The thing that is amazing to me is that some of the largest cap stocks did not even exist in 2000.... GOOG, FB, Netflix (? maybe it did)...
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Old 02-04-2016, 02:54 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by meierlde View Post
Once upon a time another store was the top dog in the US It started out as a mail order company sending catalogs (the older slower version of amazon), then just like rumors floating around it built retail stores. It then got huge and sloppy and look where it is today. Interestingly the first Sears model and Amazon are essentially the same if you change catalog and mail in orders for a web site, just a little slower in processing. Sears used both the USPS and the Railway express to ship. (USPS after parcel post was around), (recall that in the midwest in 1900 it was typically 10 miles to the nearest depot where REA express delivered)
I think Wal-Mart is about at maximum size doing an inverse to what Sears did going from stores to mail-order(web). Amazon seems to think the model sears followed is a good one, but history shows that the model eventually falls apart due to large size.
The Sears and Amazon comparison is really fascinating.

Its interesting that UPS logistics helped build Amazon from the ground up and Sears played a huge part volume wise in the 80s(before the internet) when UPS got so big they didn't want or need their logo on their trailers.

So moving forward 15 to 20 years with self driving cars supposedly in place.

I wonder how things play out. Will consumers be sending their car to Costco or Walmart to be loaded with their purchases and then the car drives itself back home.

Amazon is going to open retail locations so maybe Jeff Bozos already realizes that self driving cars are a big threat to his distribution model.

Walmart wins in this scenario with stores and real estate already in every major and many rural zips code in America.

Maybe the drone thing happens by then.
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Old 02-04-2016, 10:25 AM   #32
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What if AMZN and WMT merged...
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Old 02-10-2016, 12:08 AM   #33
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To me the more important thing when considering amzn vs wmt is the price to find out who "wins."

If I could buy them at the same price is probably buy both evenly. But since AMZN has to beat the crap out of Walmart by orders of magnitude just to make their current price reasonable and Walmart just has to not really screw up... I'll bet on WMT.

Price paid is as important as what is being bought.

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