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Old 06-10-2007, 06:06 PM   #21
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Thanks for the feedback, Brewer.

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Seems like a reasonable strategy. On the sovereigns, just make sure you stick with top shelf credits (AA or better) and you should be fine. I haven't honestly looked at the world bank, etc., but I guess I would pay attention to who the guarantor is and what the entity's credit profile is. I'd probably be comfier with the State Bank of Bavaria and some of the Landesbanks than the ADB or the world bank, personally. I tend to view the Federal Home Loan Bank as equivalent to the US govt, but with a smidge higher yield.
As far as I can tell, the guarantor for the World Bank is the governments of the developed nations that support it. Though maybe it is more like a Fannie Mae type of thing, and there is no explicit guarantee after all. But they have never defaulted on a bond so far.

BTW, I think the State Bank of Bavaria to which I referred is in fact the Bayerische Landesbank.

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When the credit markets crack (and they will), be ready to buy some corporates. They will become a very attractive deal at some point.
Would you be willing to give a heads-up when that becomes the case?
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Old 06-10-2007, 06:35 PM   #22
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I think the OP was refering to someone on Wall St. (urbun legend perhaps) who sold everything just before the crash of 29 because the elevator boy gave him a stock tip. If (primarily) indexors are picking individual stocks then the markets are irrational.

Was that tour point OP?
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Old 06-11-2007, 08:35 AM   #23
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Thanks for the feedback, Brewer.
Would you be willing to give a heads-up when that becomes the case?
Sure, but I think you will know when it happens. Since a lot of equity market upswing is being driven by LBOs, a crack in the credit markets will likely reverberate into the equity markets.
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Old 08-15-2007, 05:10 PM   #24
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As I was saying ...
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Old 08-15-2007, 06:34 PM   #25
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No elevator boy in your building?
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Old 08-15-2007, 08:13 PM   #26
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I knew we hit the top when I decided to take that 90k sitting in cash and put it into play....
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