I like Oil

[kikechico]

Bought into UCO with 1% of portfolio. Let's see where this train goes.

So far is going well...

 

[dallas27]

So far is going well...

Ya, up 15% in a week. Could all go poof, but i can't complain.


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[aaronc879]

Ya, up 15% in a week. Could all go poof, but i can't complain.


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I bought SDLP a couple months ago and it went up over 20% in about a week. Two or three weeks later it was negative 15%. Now it's up to almost even. Lots of volatility right now with these stocks.

 

[dallas27]

22%


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[papadad111]

Poof.

 

[target2019]

These are trades I've made in energy. Dividends not included.
full position in PBF PBF Energy Inc 12/5/2014 $28.50
1/4 position in STO Statoil ASA(ADR) 12/29/2014 $17.91
1/2 position in STO Statoil ASA(ADR) 11/26/2014 $21.97

We are ahead 5% unrealized. The surprise has been PBF, a refiner, which is up 20%. I wasn't patient enough with the 1st purchase in STO.

Changed my target for XOM (to 82) and CVX (to 102). Patience required...

And my SEP contribution to Vanguard Energy fund VGENX went in on a day there was a 2% pop.

I'd summarize that as pop, poof, and pfft.

 

[dallas27]

With yemen heating up, risking the suez control, i'm liking the potential upside. A lot of strife right now.


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[Mr._Graybeard]

U.S. oil storage crunch might cut crude prices

 

[HF63]

I am keeping an eye on EC and probably I'll buy some PBR!

 

[FUEGO]

With the way these oil prices bounce around, I need to buy some PBR too. Or maybe something even stronger.

 

[target2019]

With the way these oil prices bounce around, I need to buy some PBR too. Or maybe something even stronger.

1 share GIN + 4 shares TONIC.

 

[imoldernu]

It's time to look a fracking companies which are being hard hit by losing their credit lines. As most of these are supported by bank loans (being start-up businesses), even short term losses endanger the investments.
Even if there is a longer term recovery in oil prices, the bankruptcy overhang may extend well into the future, and make future financing risky, Unless and until long term stability returns to the market, the cost to rebuild the fracking industry may be high, and that may well affect the projected lower, long term prices.

 

[aja8888]

It's time to look a fracking companies which are being hard hit by losing their credit lines. As most of these are supported by bank loans (being start-up businesses), even short term losses endanger the investments.
Even if there is a longer term recovery in oil prices, the bankruptcy overhang may extend well into the future, and make future financing risky, Unless and until long term stability returns to the market, the cost to rebuild the fracking industry may be high, and that may well affect the projected lower, long term prices.

Fracking really is not an industry, it's a well completion technique used by a sub contractor under contract from an oil producer.

The fraccing service, which has been done to complete wells since the 1940's or earlier, consists these days of a series of high pressure fluid and controlled expolsive charges introduced into a well bore at the point where the formation is thought to contain oil/gas. In newer, horizontal wells, the play area is fairly long since the bore is horizontal (that's the new technology) thus requiring orders of magnitude more water, sand and chemicals (mostly diesel fuel) injected into the "fracced" area after controlled explosives break the formation.

Many independent fraccing companies surfaced during the 2008 - now oil boom to service the longer horizontal bores which will produce more produce for a short period of time. These companies bought pumping trucks, sand haulers, expensive down hole measuring equipment, hired frac engineers, etc. If some of these service companies go under, which some will, but not all, the equipment will still be available if the industry turns around (which it will).

Plus, what many forget, is the oil industry in this country still needs to produce at a rate of 9+ million barrels per day to keep "even" with where we are today, given we still import most of our shortfall (3+ MM BPD) of crude oil from Canada and Mexico.

So, the fraccing companies may be short of work, but many are not dead in the water. Horizontal drilling and big frac jobs will be alive and well as that is the new technology of America.

 

[LRDave]

1 share GIN + 4 shares TONIC.

I think you are overweighted in TONIC.

 

[target2019]

I think you are overweighted in TONIC.

I am designated driver.

 

[LifeIs]

word reversal...companies that frack

is that better....companies that frack, yes it is a technology we all learn here.

Fracking really is not an industry, it's a well completion technique used by a sub contractor under contract from an oil producer.

The fraccing service, which has been done to complete wells since the 1940's or earlier, consists these days of a series of high pressure fluid and controlled expolsive charges introduced into a well bore at the point where the formation is thought to contain oil/gas. In newer, horizontal wells, the play area is fairly long since the bore is horizontal (that's the new technology) thus requiring orders of magnitude more water, sand and chemicals (mostly diesel fuel) injected into the "fracced" area after controlled explosives break the formation.

Many independent fraccing companies surfaced during the 2008 - now oil boom to service the longer horizontal bores which will produce more produce for a short period of time. These companies bought pumping trucks, sand haulers, expensive down hole measuring equipment, hired frac engineers, etc. If some of these service companies go under, which some will, but not all, the equipment will still be available if the industry turns around (which it will).

Plus, what many forget, is the oil industry in this country still needs to produce at a rate of 9+ million barrels per day to keep "even" with where we are today, given we still import most of our shortfall (3+ MM BPD) of crude oil from Canada and Mexico.

So, the fraccing companies may be short of work, but many are not dead in the water. Horizontal drilling and big frac jobs will be alive and well as that is the new technology of America.

 

[dallas27]

Bought (UCO) in at 6.55, sold at 8 just now. 22.14% before transaction fees. Might get back in if it drops, might not. I figure the quick profit covers my ETF expense ratios for the year, and then some.

 

[escapee2020]

I am boring so I just have energy fund , may buy individual stocks when the next market tanks


Escapee2020

 

[Nemo2]

I am designated driver.

Or dessicated, as the case may be.

 

[REWahoo]

Where are all those "peak oil" alarmists? Haven't heard from them in a while...

100-billion-barrel oil discovery

[The discovery is]... a potential total of 100 billion barrels of oil, according to estimates from petrophysical analysts Nutech, released by UKOG Thursday. The area around Horse Hill near Gatwick Airport could hold 158 million barrels per square mile, Nutech’s analysis of an exploratory well showed.

 

[2B]

Where are all those "peak oil" alarmists? Haven't heard from them in a while...

100-billion-barrel oil discovery

I saw this. If true and the UK doesn't screw themselves into knots over this, this will be a major disruption in the world's oil market. This could keep European and east US oil prices down for decades. It could even put the nail into Russia's dominance in the European energy market.

Between this major onshore find and fracking, there may not be another major off-shore platform for maybe as long as a generation. Like most oil industry predictions, I'm sure I'm just as wrong as everyone else.

 

[aja8888]

Finding it is one thing, developing it is another. Now remember this find is on land in the U.K. near Gatwick Airport. (I wonder what the Queen would say about digging up much of the land in that populated area?)

Besides being a nightmare to drill, produce and pipeline (or truck) this crude to a refinery, the amount recoverable may be a small number:

"Even though UKOG said only a small fraction of that amount could be pulled from the ground, the significance of the find stacks up against the fact that the North Sea has produced only about 45 billion barrels in 40 years, as the BBC noted."

 

[yakers]

What about Shell buying BG? More oil/gas mergers?


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[imoldernu]

Fracking really is not an industry, it's a well completion technique used by a sub contractor under contract from an oil producer.

The fraccing service, which has been done to complete wells since the 1940's or earlier, consists these days of a series of high pressure fluid and controlled expolsive charges introduced into a well bore at the point where the formation is thought to contain oil/gas. In newer, horizontal wells, the play area is fairly long since the bore is horizontal (that's the new technology) thus requiring orders of magnitude more water, sand and chemicals (mostly diesel fuel) injected into the "fracced" area after controlled explosives break the formation.

Many independent fraccing companies surfaced during the 2008 - now oil boom to service the longer horizontal bores which will produce more produce for a short period of time. These companies bought pumping trucks, sand haulers, expensive down hole measuring equipment, hired frac engineers, etc. If some of these service companies go under, which some will, but not all, the equipment will still be available if the industry turns around (which it will).

Plus, what many forget, is the oil industry in this country still needs to produce at a rate of 9+ million barrels per day to keep "even" with where we are today, given we still import most of our shortfall (3+ MM BPD) of crude oil from Canada and Mexico.

So, the fraccing companies may be short of work, but many are not dead in the water. Horizontal drilling and big frac jobs will be alive and well as that is the new technology of America.

I wouldn't question the longer term turnaround, but my concern is about the monies involved in the growth. I would expect that the start ups would not have been established with cash, but with loans and credit lines. Almost always this type of operation is financed, and, in addition, start ups in an industry with possible volatility are usually insured against rapid market changes. The question here, is who was insured, how much, and with whom.

Financial news, in general, has given little coverage to the state of the oil based hedge funds. Hopefully the loss of as much as 50% of the value has been averaged out... and especially with regard to the amounts held in pension funds and other invisible funds. Hopefully someone here, can shed some light on this.

Aside...A March Forbes article
Itemizing The Oil Bust: 75,000 Layoffs And Counting - Forbes quoted the industry lay offs at nearly 75,000... I wonder what will happen to those remote areas that grew with new employees, new homes, and the families that moved to have the benefit of higher oil industry wages. How long will they be able to stay where they are without a steady income.

 

[aja8888]

... I wonder what will happen to those remote areas that grew with new employees, new homes, and the families that moved to have the benefit of higher oil industry wages.

I've spent a lot of time in North Dakota over the last 5 years. My avatar is a picture I took of a well at 20 below zero on an icy morning near Stanley, ND.

There are really just three "boom towns in ND - Williston, Dickerson and Minot. Williston is going to suffer the most as it has really let things (real estate, commercial development) go wild. But the oil fields will survive and companies will be there. It's just that staying at the Holiday Inn Express will drop from $300/night to probably $150/night....until things pick up again.