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word reversal...companies that frack
Old 04-03-2015, 01:55 PM   #241
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word reversal...companies that frack

is that better....companies that frack, yes it is a technology we all learn here.


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Fracking really is not an industry, it's a well completion technique used by a sub contractor under contract from an oil producer.

The fraccing service, which has been done to complete wells since the 1940's or earlier, consists these days of a series of high pressure fluid and controlled expolsive charges introduced into a well bore at the point where the formation is thought to contain oil/gas. In newer, horizontal wells, the play area is fairly long since the bore is horizontal (that's the new technology) thus requiring orders of magnitude more water, sand and chemicals (mostly diesel fuel) injected into the "fracced" area after controlled explosives break the formation.

Many independent fraccing companies surfaced during the 2008 - now oil boom to service the longer horizontal bores which will produce more produce for a short period of time. These companies bought pumping trucks, sand haulers, expensive down hole measuring equipment, hired frac engineers, etc. If some of these service companies go under, which some will, but not all, the equipment will still be available if the industry turns around (which it will).

Plus, what many forget, is the oil industry in this country still needs to produce at a rate of 9+ million barrels per day to keep "even" with where we are today, given we still import most of our shortfall (3+ MM BPD) of crude oil from Canada and Mexico.

So, the fraccing companies may be short of work, but many are not dead in the water. Horizontal drilling and big frac jobs will be alive and well as that is the new technology of America.
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Old 04-06-2015, 09:53 AM   #242
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Bought (UCO) in at 6.55, sold at 8 just now. 22.14% before transaction fees. Might get back in if it drops, might not. I figure the quick profit covers my ETF expense ratios for the year, and then some.
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I like Oil
Old 04-07-2015, 11:07 AM   #243
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I like Oil

I am boring so I just have energy fund , may buy individual stocks when the next market tanks


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Old 04-08-2015, 05:29 AM   #244
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Old 04-09-2015, 10:35 AM   #245
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Where are all those "peak oil" alarmists? Haven't heard from them in a while...

100-billion-barrel oil discovery

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[The discovery is]... a potential total of 100 billion barrels of oil, according to estimates from petrophysical analysts Nutech, released by UKOG Thursday. The area around Horse Hill near Gatwick Airport could hold 158 million barrels per square mile, Nutech’s analysis of an exploratory well showed.
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Old 04-09-2015, 11:09 AM   #246
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Where are all those "peak oil" alarmists? Haven't heard from them in a while...

100-billion-barrel oil discovery
I saw this. If true and the UK doesn't screw themselves into knots over this, this will be a major disruption in the world's oil market. This could keep European and east US oil prices down for decades. It could even put the nail into Russia's dominance in the European energy market.

Between this major onshore find and fracking, there may not be another major off-shore platform for maybe as long as a generation. Like most oil industry predictions, I'm sure I'm just as wrong as everyone else.
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Old 04-09-2015, 11:26 AM   #247
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Finding it is one thing, developing it is another. Now remember this find is on land in the U.K. near Gatwick Airport. (I wonder what the Queen would say about digging up much of the land in that populated area?)

Besides being a nightmare to drill, produce and pipeline (or truck) this crude to a refinery, the amount recoverable may be a small number:

"Even though UKOG said only a small fraction of that amount could be pulled from the ground, the significance of the find stacks up against the fact that the North Sea has produced only about 45 billion barrels in 40 years, as the BBC noted."
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Old 04-09-2015, 01:36 PM   #248
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I like Oil

What about Shell buying BG? More oil/gas mergers?


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Old 04-09-2015, 06:03 PM   #249
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aja8888 View Post
Fracking really is not an industry, it's a well completion technique used by a sub contractor under contract from an oil producer.

The fraccing service, which has been done to complete wells since the 1940's or earlier, consists these days of a series of high pressure fluid and controlled expolsive charges introduced into a well bore at the point where the formation is thought to contain oil/gas. In newer, horizontal wells, the play area is fairly long since the bore is horizontal (that's the new technology) thus requiring orders of magnitude more water, sand and chemicals (mostly diesel fuel) injected into the "fracced" area after controlled explosives break the formation.

Many independent fraccing companies surfaced during the 2008 - now oil boom to service the longer horizontal bores which will produce more produce for a short period of time. These companies bought pumping trucks, sand haulers, expensive down hole measuring equipment, hired frac engineers, etc. If some of these service companies go under, which some will, but not all, the equipment will still be available if the industry turns around (which it will).

Plus, what many forget, is the oil industry in this country still needs to produce at a rate of 9+ million barrels per day to keep "even" with where we are today, given we still import most of our shortfall (3+ MM BPD) of crude oil from Canada and Mexico.

So, the fraccing companies may be short of work, but many are not dead in the water. Horizontal drilling and big frac jobs will be alive and well as that is the new technology of America.
I wouldn't question the longer term turnaround, but my concern is about the monies involved in the growth. I would expect that the start ups would not have been established with cash, but with loans and credit lines. Almost always this type of operation is financed, and, in addition, start ups in an industry with possible volatility are usually insured against rapid market changes. The question here, is who was insured, how much, and with whom.

Financial news, in general, has given little coverage to the state of the oil based hedge funds. Hopefully the loss of as much as 50% of the value has been averaged out... and especially with regard to the amounts held in pension funds and other invisible funds. Hopefully someone here, can shed some light on this.

Aside...A March Forbes article
Itemizing The Oil Bust: 75,000 Layoffs And Counting - Forbes quoted the industry lay offs at nearly 75,000... I wonder what will happen to those remote areas that grew with new employees, new homes, and the families that moved to have the benefit of higher oil industry wages. How long will they be able to stay where they are without a steady income.
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Old 04-09-2015, 06:15 PM   #250
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... I wonder what will happen to those remote areas that grew with new employees, new homes, and the families that moved to have the benefit of higher oil industry wages.
I've spent a lot of time in North Dakota over the last 5 years. My avatar is a picture I took of a well at 20 below zero on an icy morning near Stanley, ND.

There are really just three "boom towns in ND - Williston, Dickerson and Minot. Williston is going to suffer the most as it has really let things (real estate, commercial development) go wild. But the oil fields will survive and companies will be there. It's just that staying at the Holiday Inn Express will drop from $300/night to probably $150/night....until things pick up again.
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Old 04-09-2015, 06:59 PM   #251
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Originally Posted by imoldernu View Post
Aside...A March Forbes article
Itemizing The Oil Bust: 75,000 Layoffs And Counting - Forbes quoted the industry lay offs at nearly 75,000... I wonder what will happen to those remote areas that grew with new employees, new homes, and the families that moved to have the benefit of higher oil industry wages. How long will they be able to stay where they are without a steady income.
Houston is seeing a significant number of O&G job losses. Houston has been booming with the whole oil industry. I know that there have been a substantial number of layoffs but there's no sign of a real estate drop so far.

O&G has always been cyclical and this is just another one of those times. Those that have overextended will be punished. Except for my home value, I'm glad to be out of the game.
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Old 04-09-2015, 10:22 PM   #252
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Bought (UCO) in at 6.55, sold at 8 just now. 22.14% before transaction fees. Might get back in if it drops, might not. I figure the quick profit covers my ETF expense ratios for the year, and then some.
Well done !
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Old 05-05-2015, 09:40 AM   #253
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So much for $20 oil.

How can the analysts be so wrong and still get airtime?

UCO at $10.25 btw.
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Old 05-05-2015, 09:57 AM   #254
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Just a warning: If I get back in to an oil play, short the hell out of it. There is precedent for that.
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Old 05-05-2015, 10:03 AM   #255
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Just a warning: If I get back in to an oil play, short the hell out of it. There is precedent for that.
Don't you just hate that feeling of being a human leading indicator?
I have felt it myself.
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Old 05-05-2015, 01:04 PM   #256
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I just recently started following oil and the why's and predictions and such because of how it effects the value of our business. It makes the stock market seem like an exact science IMHO.

Th oil price predictions are stated so confidently and are all over the board from extreme to extreme. Makes it entertaining but not very informative.................
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Old 05-11-2015, 11:59 AM   #257
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I found this NYT article on the "production" part of oil drilling to be fascinating.
The technology involved, is far beyond anything I had imagined,

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/12/bu...=MYWAY&ei=5065

Here's the headline, if you need to Google to get past the NYT paywall...
"Drillers Answer Low Oil Prices With Cost-Saving Innovations"
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Old 05-11-2015, 02:54 PM   #258
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Read today that barclay is expecting US oil supply to continue to outpace demand all year, pushing stored oil even further. Maybe we will see another big price dip before this is all said and done. If we do, i will absolutely buy into UCO again, that may be the trigger for congress to allow export.

We will see


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Old 05-11-2015, 03:51 PM   #259
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Heard on CNBC that there's a report of $76 a barrel.

By 2025.
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Old 05-11-2015, 03:56 PM   #260
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Heard on CNBC that there's a report of $76 a barrel.

By 2025.

If anybody knows what happens ten years from now it would be cnbc.
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