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Old 06-18-2015, 02:40 PM   #301
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...but the dividends are still there and I can't lose much more if I hang on for a while.
I'm not liking CVX right now. I'm down about 8% not counting dividend. SDLP is backto where I bought it but I got the 15% dividend so i'm somewhat happy about that one. Plan to hold long term and still feel confident i'll be ahead before too long.
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Old 06-18-2015, 09:33 PM   #302
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I'm not liking CVX right now. I'm down about 8% not counting dividend. SDLP is backto where I bought it but I got the 15% dividend so i'm somewhat happy about that one. Plan to hold long term and still feel confident i'll be ahead before too long.
I dunno about SDLP, aaron. Comparing a drilling company to a world-class vertically integrated O&G company? Do you remember Reading and Bates? I am not in a position to buy more CVX, but I sure ain't going to sell it now and I wouldn't touch SDLP.
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Old 06-18-2015, 10:44 PM   #303
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SDLP is not SDRL

SDLP is actually in fairly good shape. Not great shape, but fairly good shape.
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Old 06-19-2015, 05:41 AM   #304
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I dunno about SDLP, aaron. Comparing a drilling company to a world-class vertically integrated O&G company? Do you remember Reading and Bates? I am not in a position to buy more CVX, but I sure ain't going to sell it now and I wouldn't touch SDLP.
I have less than 1% of my portfolio in SDLP and a little over 6% in CVX. I know SDLP is much more risky but I felt like I got in at a good price and the upside is pretty big. I plan to hold CVX long term and if SDLP doesn't drop it's dividend then i'll probably keep that too for until there are some good gains to take.
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Old 06-19-2015, 07:06 AM   #305
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I have less than 1% of my portfolio in SDLP and a little over 6% in CVX. I know SDLP is much more risky but I felt like I got in at a good price and the upside is pretty big. I plan to hold CVX long term and if SDLP doesn't drop it's dividend then i'll probably keep that too for until there are some good gains to take.
SDLP is more like a REIT. I don't think it really *can* drop the dividend since that dividend is how 57% owner Seadrill gets a portion of its cash.

Rigs on contracts are dropped down to SDLP from Seadrill, sort of like how a mortgage is passed from a bank to an investor group.

Wait, that didn't work out so well for investors...

Anyway I still think SDLP will be *ok*.
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Old 06-25-2015, 07:53 PM   #306
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I predict we will see oil at ~$40/bl in the next 8 months, with maybe a very brief but dramatic crash into the 20's or 30's. I think there will be a story about a tanker driving in circles looking for a port to offload, or some such type event to crystallize the growing over supply building up. My bet is oil dependent countries are hurting for revenue, are going to continue to overproduce all they can to make of for the low price, exacerbate the oversupply, and in the end some government/region will be perceived as unstable, maybe a few small wars to disrupt supply and correct back to the 50's.
Confirmation Bias, here I come....

Oil Tankers Are Filling Up and Raking It In - WSJ
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Old 06-25-2015, 08:51 PM   #307
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Confirmation Bias, here I come....

Oil Tankers Are Filling Up and Raking It In - WSJ
Need a subscription to the WSJ to read this.
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Old 06-25-2015, 09:00 PM   #308
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Need a subscription to the WSJ to read this.
You can get to the article without a subscription by Googling the title.
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Old 06-25-2015, 09:06 PM   #309
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Confirmation Bias, here I come....

Oil Tankers Are Filling Up and Raking It In - WSJ
Actually the amount of floating storage is peanuts now.

Tanker rates are the best they have been in years, but well below the 2008 peaks.
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Old 06-25-2015, 09:08 PM   #310
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Actually the amount of floating storage is peanuts now.

Tanker rates are the best they have been in years, but well below the 2008 peaks.

So you are saying the WSJ has it 100% backwards? You are gonna have to back that claim up somehow.


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Old 06-25-2015, 09:16 PM   #311
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So you are saying the WSJ has it 100% backwards? You are gonna have to back that claim up somehow.


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Floating storage during the crash was over 100MM barrels. It is a fraction of that.

A summary of tanker rates can be seen here: Intertanko
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Old 07-06-2015, 04:56 PM   #312
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Watching the new lows and trying to put the pieces together.

What next?
Iran agreement? Opens fields. If not, alternate Iran oil markets
Russia? Putin to help Greece with energy?
US new drill employment from 2011 to early this year 170 jobs... recent losses 76,000.
Bonds supporting fracking in trouble
Potential China coal/oil markets
Refinery production curtailment
Too many political threats and agreements to count

What are the positives? Most current news and opinion is contradictory. How about a 6 month guess on WTI? $50 ? $60? $70? more? less?
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Old 07-06-2015, 05:05 PM   #313
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If I had to guess I'd think oil will be in a $50-70 holding pattern for a while. Then again, my track record (or lack thereof) in making oil plays is well known here.
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Old 07-06-2015, 05:35 PM   #314
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If I had to guess I'd think oil will be in a $50-70 holding pattern for a while. Then again, my track record (or lack thereof) in making oil plays is well known here.
i spent 30 + years in the business and I can only say oil won't go to $0.
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Old 07-06-2015, 09:11 PM   #315
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i spent 30 + years in the business and I can only say oil won't go to $0.

It already feels like it has!
My portfolio is pretty heavy in energy and MLP's (28%) and it's been painful to watch.
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Old 07-06-2015, 09:19 PM   #316
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I guess it depends on what you look at. Short term I have no idea... Iran, Greece, opec blah blah blah.

Longer term (5-40 years) I suspect more people will use more energy and oil will remain a major piece of that for at least a few decades. Thus I think the large integrated companies will continue to do well and these 2-5 years will look like a great buying opportunity.

Another possibility is that oil is rapidly going away from use and will be replaced much faster than that and as demand drops rapidly... The companies will have much smaller margins and eventually go under.

If you believe that... Then I'd sell all oil type investments and go elsewhere because who knows which companies will win in the new battle.

I happen to believe that oil will be around through most of my lifetime (Im 40) and the price control will stay with big energy companies. The current situation is noise... But it's very loud noise that can last longer than we may like

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Old 07-07-2015, 09:04 AM   #317
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This seems to be a time of fear in oil, and as such I see this as a prime opportunity to pick up big oil at great value. The problem is how to catch a falling knife. Even though I'm already overweight in oil, it's hard to pass up some of these low prices. For the long term, it seems a very good time to buy. I only wish I was short in my AA and could use this time to bring my allocation to where it should be, rather than feeling I need to hold back to keep from going further overweight.
Anybody else out there already overweight in oil and trying to justify picking up more shares?
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Old 07-07-2015, 09:13 AM   #318
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This seems to be a time of fear in oil, and as such I see this as a prime opportunity to pick up big oil at great value. The problem is how to catch a falling knife. Even though I'm already overweight in oil, it's hard to pass up some of these low prices. For the long term, it seems a very good time to buy. I only wish I was short in my AA and could use this time to bring my allocation to where it should be, rather than feeling I need to hold back to keep from going further overweight.
Anybody else out there already overweight in oil and trying to justify picking up more shares?
Me.

(Licking my chops on Exxon/Mobil, Chevron and Phillips 66, but haven't committed yet.)
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Old 07-07-2015, 09:57 AM   #319
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Buying the dip should payoff right after any announcement that iran will be able to sell oil again. If that news doesn't create a short term bottom, i would be surprised. The risk of course is a longer term downtrend that creates a real price drop crisis, but to me that means it would be time to double down and wait for price stability.


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Old 07-07-2015, 10:35 AM   #320
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This seems to be a time of fear in oil, and as such I see this as a prime opportunity to pick up big oil at great value...
If you like oil, you should love coal.
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