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Old 11-10-2015, 07:50 PM   #521
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I've been following fusion too for years, decades.

What i really don't get is why thermodepolymerization hasn't taken off as it reality simple and proven. Maybe something about it i don't know, but it seems like no brainer.


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Old 11-10-2015, 08:07 PM   #522
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Unfortunately it wouldn't stay in place. The force of the sunlight would push it.
There is a way to reduce the force of solar wind/sunlight substantially (but not eliminate it). A much smaller reaction motor would keep it on position.

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Old 11-10-2015, 08:10 PM   #523
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From what I understand the US has enough NG to supply all of the US energy needs to 100+ years. We have abundant NG.

There are also vast quantities in the ocean. I may be miss-remembering but I think we have enough in the ocean to supply the world energy needs for hundreds of years.
All true, I believe.

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Old 11-11-2015, 08:57 AM   #524
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From what I understand the US has enough NG to supply all of the US energy needs to 100+ years. We have abundant NG.

There are also vast quantities in the ocean. I may be miss-remembering but I think we have enough in the ocean to supply the world energy needs for hundreds of years.

My guess is that NG is what gets substituted in for oil over the next 100 years as/if oil output starts to decline.

P.S. AMLP issued its dividend. Payout is the exact same as last quarter. No cuts. World is not falling in MLP land .

I do monitor AMLP, and it is sagging a bit today. I do have some interest in AMLP, but definitely not an individual issue. I just cant quite wrap my head around their accounting processes. I still haven't figured out whether these companies ultimately at this point are giving dividends from earnings or just giving a person back some of his own money.
Clearly pipelines are needed and are not a mirage investment. But I get conflicting info on how their contracts ultimately hold up with companies using their pipelines.


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Old 11-12-2015, 02:25 PM   #525
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Energy market seems like water torture. If it has to do with hydrocarbons it is going down, and going down hard. Once here, I guess there is nothing to do but tough it out, but I surely wish I had never delivered myself to this trap. As long as I have been been alive, if oil output was not governed, oil would have sold for a ridiculously low price. The Texas Railroad commission had this restraining role for many years, and then OPEC had it. As best I know, never before has a cartel or governing body just let it rip without regard to price and revenue maximization. I may be that the Saudis and other low cost producers are afraid of the stranded asset idea.

Tech goes up and up more, oil and gas and everything associated with these goes down and down more. Grrrr!

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Old 11-12-2015, 02:32 PM   #526
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Ha,
I guess investors are in a similar boat as the companies. The ones who don't need the money can last long enough to take advantage of the eventual price increase .

Seriously though. I think what's tough is it's "longer than expected" but then that happens all the time because we shouldn't really be confident in our expectations but are.

I think many investors have your sentiment and thus will sell their energy holding low and buy the tech holding high .

This thread can easily last 2-3 more years

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Old 11-12-2015, 08:33 PM   #527
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I guess I'm bucking the trend here. I had a small position in SDRL which I just doubled this morning. I'm in at a cost averaged share price of just under 8 bucks.

Oil had been low or dropping for over a year now (now longer than most historical droops). I'm also noting heavy short interest In a few oil stocks , with long days to cover. I think we're going to see a short squeeze soon with some rebound...

Hold on for the ride!


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Old 11-12-2015, 09:16 PM   #528
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Energy market seems like water torture. If it has to do with hydrocarbons it is going down, and going down hard. Once here, I guess there is nothing to do but tough it out, but I surely wish I had never delivered myself to this trap.
Bruddah, you said it.
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Old 11-12-2015, 09:19 PM   #529
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Crude inventories rose by 4.2 million as reported by the EIA this morning.

Yet supposedly more miles were driven in the first half of this year, leading to more accidents.

Lower gas prices has led to more driving and car sales are projected to reach 17 million this year. Yet the demand doesn't seem to have risen enough to meet all the increased supply.

Then there are supposedly traders who are stockpiling oil on tankers until the price goes up more?
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Old 11-12-2015, 09:37 PM   #530
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Then there are supposedly traders who are stockpiling oil on tankers until the price goes up more?
Just over the horizon? Haven't we heard this before?
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Old 11-12-2015, 10:20 PM   #531
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https://www.rt.com/business/221147-t...l-stockpiling/
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Old 11-13-2015, 07:18 AM   #532
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Yeah. I'm personally not a fan of commodity trading. I prefer investing in companies but each to his own.

I'm fairly confident when the supply starts to drop it'll drop well below the demand... Mainly because suddenly a bunch of producers will pack it in. Then when the demand continues those stockpiles will get eaten up faster than expected (still slow). I feel like the last few months have shown how the market over reacts to even minor "good news" even though the fundamental supply/demand situation hasn't changed.

I think you could see fairly large moves once those fundamentals become more normal again.

Personally my oil holdings aren't anything I need so I'm ok riding it out. Yeah... It's stressful but I also figured it would be... But I didn't anticipate HOW stressful so I think when I'm actually retired I might have to stop playing the game

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Old 11-13-2015, 08:07 AM   #533
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Then there are supposedly traders who are stockpiling oil on tankers until the price goes up more?
Sure - and then as soon as they try to sell any of it prices plummet again.
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Old 11-14-2015, 07:31 AM   #534
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"Energy market seems like water torture. If it has to do with hydrocarbons it is going down, and going down hard. Once here, I guess there is nothing to do but tough it out, but I surely wish I had never delivered myself to this trap."

I have been surprised at the correlation of the midstream MLP index to the price of oil recently. I saw a graph the other day and in the past the two were not correlated but during the oil panic they have been in lockstep. This is different than how this sector has behaved historically. My conspiracy theory is that its because we have ETFs for the sector now and the robots are running wild with it.

Anyway, I have been going through the ETF that I own (AMLP) and listening to the quarterly conference calls of the companies that make up the index. This has been very helpful to get an understanding of what the actual companies are seeing. What they are seeing is lower margins but higher volume. All in all they are not suffering, they are still making profits and investing for growth. I see no indications of dividend reductions. There probably will be a halt to dividend growth because the of mergers. There are a lot of acquisitions going on within the sector.

This isn't like 2008 where there was demand destruction in the US. The demand is up in the US, and I'm only targeting the midstream MLP sector which is for the most part a domestic business. There is transportation to sea ports for export, but most of the transportation is for internal use.

I'm looking at this as a buying opportunity. It may go on for several years. If so good!

Now I'm going to come to my tinfoil hat comment...

From what I can gather, this oil panic is a supply problem, not a demand problem. The supply issue appears to have been originated by OPEC, in particular Saudi Arabia. I have done some reading up on SA and from what I understand they just had a new monarch take over. Well the authority to set the SA oil policy was given to the new kings favorite son... not only that he is also, in US terms, the head of the dept of defense and the head of state... This favorite son is 29 years old and his education background is in Islamic law. He doesn't have a western education like many SA princes. Anyway, he has gotten SA engaged directly in two wars (Yemen and Egypt), he has also cost OPEC roughly $500 billion the last year through over supply of oil... Just FYI, its estimated that SA really needs oil up around $100 to cover all the hand outs they pay for to discourage their people from rioting.

Long story short I think this oil panic has been caused by a 29 year old religious studies major in SA (who by the way has gotten them into two wars already). He is the favorite son of the new king. From what I understand he is the favorite because he looks handsome and has lots of confidence in himself...

This is from what I have gathered reading articles on the web (from "legitimate" non-conspiracy websites I might add)...
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Old 11-14-2015, 08:49 AM   #535
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I have done some reading up on SA and from what I understand they just had a new monarch take over. Well the authority to set the SA oil policy was given to the new kings favorite son... not only that he is also, in US terms, the head of the dept of defense and the head of state... This favorite son is 29 years old and his education background is in Islamic law. He doesn't have a western education like many SA princes. Anyway, he has gotten SA engaged directly in two wars (Yemen and Egypt), he has also cost OPEC roughly $500 billion the last year through over supply of oil... Just FYI, its estimated that SA really needs oil up around $100 to cover all the hand outs they pay for to discourage their people from rioting.

Long story short I think this oil panic has been caused by a 29 year old religious studies major in SA (who by the way has gotten them into two wars already). He is the favorite son of the new king. From what I understand he is the favorite because he looks handsome and has lots of confidence in himself...
I foresee interesting times ahead for the homeland of the Wahabbis.
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Old 11-14-2015, 08:54 AM   #536
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The demand is up in the US
We just returned from Europe.....heavy vehicle traffic in every major centre we visited, and every airplane landing from, and departing to, 'everywhere' appeared to be jam packed...it all seems antithetical to current oil prices.
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Old 11-14-2015, 10:02 AM   #537
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We just returned from Europe.....heavy vehicle traffic in every major centre we visited, and every airplane landing from, and departing to, 'everywhere' appeared to be jam packed...it all seems antithetical to current oil prices.

Being a commodity it will have its up and downs through the years. But, the one thing I haven't fully figured out because quite frankly I am not smart enough is the integration of technology and oil production. Technology has really driven down the oil production costs in once was considered "fringe producing sites". I noticed recently Suncor a big major oil sands extractor has drastically reduced their production costs. It wasn't too long ago it was over $50 per barrel. Now they can extract it for $27 a barrel. There is boundless supply of this stuff up north.


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Old 11-14-2015, 11:55 AM   #538
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With the current dips in big oil I think it's time for me to start buying back in even if I have to hold them for a while longer than I usually like. I've far too much cash sitting on the sidelines earning nothing, thanks to the wisdom of the Washington regulators. Yes, I know there is an oil glut, prices are depressed, Washington hates big oil, etc. One of the smartest (or at least most successful) investors I have ever known often told me to buy stocks when they were out of favor. (YMMV) Sure sounds to me like like big oil companies fill that bill today. I've always been willing to gamble, I have the spare cash that I can afford to lose, so why not roll the dice on oil.

Here I go again.....
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Old 11-14-2015, 08:47 PM   #539
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MLP's are for the most part overloaded with debt, and consolidating in order to issue more shares to keep this going while the build out of the area slows. The most worthless statistic is distributable cash flow. Look at ETP's 3rd quarter financials and determination of "Distributable cash flow" They have 308 million dollars of maintenance capital through nine months, meaning that the remainder of of their capital spending according to ETP could be halted if needed for distribution to shareholders. Now actual assets went up by 4 billion to 42 billion, meaning that required maintenance of existing capital assets is one percent of the assets or a useful life of 100 years. THAT is extraordinarily hard for me to believe, but if they said two billion of capital is needed no matter what distributable cash flow drops like a rock, instead the mirage is continued and they either issue shares or borrow money for the difference. The oil problem is bringing this problem to a head as the growth wheel is slowing leaving only ongoing business, only way to avoid truth is to combine with someone else.....
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Old 11-18-2015, 02:01 PM   #540
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I may be that the Saudis and other low cost producers are afraid of the stranded asset idea.
I think this might be what really is happening. Get it out of the ground now. As long as you make a profit (and you will as lowest cost producer) it is a better alternative than leaving it in the ground where it never will be retrieved.

As much as 2/3rds of proven reserves some project will be left in the ground. Now that may or may not be true, but it may just explain some of the Saudi behavior.

I got lucky buying Total though. Sitting on a 40% profit right now (in Euro). I'll be closing out the position probably in a month or so, don't trust it long term.
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