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Old 03-05-2016, 10:14 AM   #941
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Who exactly thinks of these as 'minor' issues? I certainly don't. ...
I'm glad that you do not consider them minor, but a lot of the 'green' articles I read, and a lot of public opinion seems to be that we can pretty much wave a magic wand and it's done. It's just a matter of 'will' (not technology, physics or money).


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... Fortunately smart people plan these things out, like the Dept. of Energy:

Renewable Energy Can Provide 80 Percent of U.S. Electricity by 2050
Renewable Electricity Futures Study
I won't sidetrack this thread too far, we could start another if you'd like, but I've read through other papers by that "Union of Concerned Scientists", and I don't consider them to be scientific at all. They clearly have an agenda, and cherry-pick and torture their data, and hand-wave important issues in order to fit that agenda.

And 2050 is a long way off.

If I get a chance, I'll try to dig into those in more detail, but I'm hesitant to invest much time on it, based on my previous analysis of UoCS papers. Maybe the NREL link is better, but I see they ref the UoCS paper as well, so that does not bode well.

-ERD50
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Old 03-05-2016, 10:39 AM   #942
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ERD, At least your skepticism and interest of green is grounded at an intellectual level. I have failed, despite being college educated, the redneck rebel was not properly sanitized from me as it should have been.
I don't care what the numbers say, until the people who spew more carbon out of their Yachts, private planes, and 20,000 square feet homes in one day than I do in 5 years, quit telling me what I need to do...I aint listening!


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Old 03-05-2016, 11:27 AM   #943
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So the only people who advocate renewable energy have yachts and private planes?
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Old 03-05-2016, 01:13 PM   #944
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So the only people who advocate renewable energy have yachts and private planes?

I don't think what I wrote said that....I could have cited names for more clarity, but did not want to go down that road. It may have even been construed as political too.


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Old 03-05-2016, 01:19 PM   #945
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Well you only mentioned that.

Yeah maybe some people advocating for more renewable energy should set a better example.

But you can separate policy advocacy from personal behavior.

I would think most people in favor of greener sources of energy do not have big mansions or yachts or private jets, because only a small portion of the populace, maybe the .01% or even less, have those luxuries.
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Old 03-05-2016, 01:32 PM   #946
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Well you only mentioned that.

Yeah maybe some people advocating for more renewable energy should set a better example.

But you can separate policy advocacy from personal behavior.

I would think most people in favor of greener sources of energy do not have big mansions or yachts or private jets, because only a small portion of the populace, maybe the .01% or even less, have those luxuries.

True, and no argument from me there. The "do as I say not as I do" mentality turns me off on any subject area. The trouble for me emotionally is many of the highly visible nation wide self promoters in this area are the above types. I certainly have no problem with people advocating greener sources and having a passion for it. Admittedly though, I am more agnostic on it and will enter the fray when it is at a competitive financial advantage to do so.


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Old 03-05-2016, 03:07 PM   #947
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More economic tumbledown.

"It's A Depression" - The Disturbing Email A Houston CEO Sent His Soon To Be Laid Off Employees | Zero Hedge
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Old 03-07-2016, 10:56 AM   #948
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Hold SDLP. If Seadrill can make $6, then SDLP should be fine here at $3.50 and you still have to love the $1 a year dividend..

Maybe sell some SDLP at $5 next week.
I did sell half my SDLP at $4.32 today (not the high but not the low either) Hogs get slaughtered and all that...
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Old 03-08-2016, 09:56 AM   #949
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I did sell half my SDLP at $4.32 today (not the high but not the low either) Hogs get slaughtered and all that...
What a timely sell. Today SDLP is trading at $3.50 and lower. Should have sold it all at 4.32 I guess.

Might buy back at $3. I will hold what I have for awhile and see if it goes back up to the $4 or $5 range.
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Old 03-08-2016, 05:18 PM   #950
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RPT-Sabine Oil wins pipeline ruling in a blow to pipeline operators | Reuters

It was a bloodbath in the oil sector today and especially MLP's as the first ruling came in on lawsuit resulting in pipeline contracts not being enforceable in banckruptcy (raising value of assets and placing deflationary pressures on pipeline contracts.
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Old 03-08-2016, 05:22 PM   #951
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Heard one analyst type say if oil price goes up to $45, new capacity will be ramped up quickly, which will dampen any upward trajectory right away.
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Old 03-08-2016, 05:58 PM   #952
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Heard one analyst type say if oil price goes up to $45, new capacity will be ramped up quickly, which will dampen any upward trajectory right away.
They can only ramp up for awhile. They have quit drilling for new oil so the only thing they can do is frack the existing drilled wells, which will give a few months of oil then we have years of shortage.

And deep sea looks as if it will go away with all the rigs being scrapped.

Probably looking at $150 oil in 2021
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Old 03-08-2016, 05:58 PM   #953
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What a timely sell. Today SDLP is trading at $3.50 and lower. Should have sold it all at 4.32 I guess.

Might buy back at $3. I will hold what I have for awhile and see if it goes back up to the $4 or $5 range.
It'll be back up i'm sure. If it hits $4.50 i'll sell half to get my investment back in full then let the rest ride.
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Old 03-08-2016, 06:12 PM   #954
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They can only ramp up for awhile. They have quit drilling for new oil so the only thing they can do is frack the existing drilled wells, which will give a few months of oil then we have years of shortage.

And deep sea looks as if it will go away with all the rigs being scrapped.

Probably looking at $150 oil in 2021
Lots of shut in production was fracced immediately after drilling to complete the well and hold the lease. That way the wells get proved and valued. Don't bet on only a few months of new production. It's not how it works.
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Old 03-09-2016, 11:09 AM   #955
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The "do as I say not as I do" mentality turns me off

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Old 03-10-2016, 05:43 AM   #956
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I'm finally up on HP... about 20%... sold a little... expect oil to drop again and it to follow but in the long run I still believe in the company

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Old 03-10-2016, 10:00 AM   #957
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I'm finally up on HP... about 20%... sold a little... expect oil to drop again and it to follow but in the long run I still believe in the company

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I think we both own HP. I do not plan to sell, until mine is long term, and I hope more highly valued than today. Since all my oil and gas investments other than a royalty trust are in taxable accounts, I figure it is not worth it to try to trade. I am no good at that anyway.

I did sell the only C-Corp E&P I owned, SM Energy.
It can sure fly on energy up days, but similarly fall rapidly on down days. I sold on an up day, but at a small loss because it is the only oil and gas stock that I own that might be vulnerable to important financial damage if for example we enter a recession and demand collapses.

I am truly retired, my only source of cash other than my investments is what by the standards of this board is modest SS. I need to avoid getting kicked across the room by bad investments.

Ha
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Old 03-11-2016, 12:46 AM   #958
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I think we both own HP. I do not plan to sell, until mine is long term, and I hope more highly valued than today. Since all my oil and gas investments other than a royalty trust are in taxable accounts, I figure it is not worth it to try to trade. I am no good at that anyway.

I did sell the only C-Corp E&P I owned, SM Energy.
It can sure fly on energy up days, but similarly fall rapidly on down days. I sold on an up day, but at a small loss because it is the only oil and gas stock that I own that might be vulnerable to important financial damage if for example we enter a recession and demand collapses.

I am truly retired, my only source of cash other than my investments is what by the standards of this board is modest SS. I need to avoid getting kicked across the room by bad investments.

Ha
Yes. I like HP A LOT and I admit I reduced a bit just to ease some of the potential future pain and avoid doing something stupid like selling out too soon. I'm "happy" to let all my energy investments ride for a while now. That's Exxon, NOV and HP. Exxon is about even now and NOV is still down about 20%... that's the somewhat scary one because their recovery is likely to lag the industry. But I believe that
1) Oil industry isn't collapsing in the next few decades at least
2) The best run/least in debt companies will win in the long run.

All 3 of those companies have fairly strong balance sheets, good leadership (IMO) and good business models in their respective fields. Honestly it's only pure cowardice and lack of conviction that keeps me from putting even more in, but I'm also respecting the balance of "low cost index funds" from my own ability to "beat the market."

you being in HP with me gives me a bit more confidence... even if it's misplaced :P
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Old 03-14-2016, 03:17 PM   #959
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Hold SDLP. If Seadrill can make $6, then SDLP should be fine here at $3.50 and you still have to love the $1 a year dividend..

Maybe sell some SDLP at $5 next week.
Do you think the dividend will stay put if the share price is under $4.00? If the dividend is secure, I may buy 12,000-15,000 shares. That's $12,000-15,000/yr income. That's enough for me to live on. I could retire if that dividend doesn't get cut. Too risky? 15,000 shares at $3.50/sh would require nearly 1/3 of my investable net worth.
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Old 03-14-2016, 03:53 PM   #960
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Do you think the dividend will stay put if the share price is under $4.00? If the dividend is secure, I may buy 12,000-15,000 shares. That's $12,000-15,000/yr income. That's enough for me to live on. I could retire if that dividend doesn't get cut. Too risky? 15,000 shares at $3.50/sh would require nearly 1/3 of my investable net worth.

Aaron do really understand the mechanics of this company? The cross default possibilities of bonds? The finances of these LLC's can be very hard to understand. If you were just saying this is your "gambling account", I could completely understand the risk/reward ratio. But 1/3 of your net worth?
If you haven't studied the financials, the debt to equity ratio (over 4-1, last info I saw), Bond ratings ( progressively sinking, B2 negative and that was 6 months ago), and the financing mechanism's of this LLC (way over my head to begin to understand), I would be very leery of anything more than fun money gambling on this. But full disclosure, I am a conservative investor.




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