I like Oil

[Lakedog]

Oil does not have to go back to $100+ level for energy/oil companies to do well - just needs to go up modestly from current levels. Bought a slug of VDE less than a year ago - almost a 50% move currently with oil in the low $50s. Oil at $60-$70 seems like a decent possibility looking out a couple of years.

 

[Breedlove]

As the consolidation plays out VDE will do fine The Service Companies are consolidating so there are a lot of M&S ' . There will come a time when there will only be a couple big companies and a few regional guys .

 

[hesperus]

More production cuts announced. Crude up another 4% in Asia trading.

 

[Breedlove]

Oil is up on the cold weather , follows Natural Gas ... wait till February .

 

[Running_Man]

Well with Seadrill needing 2.5 billion by the end of 2017 and already stating they will raise 1 billion in equity in 2016 (which would cut present owners share of the company in 1/2) they would need to dilute present shareholders to about 1/6th of the equity of the company merely to be able to pay debt coming due and in the meantime contract values are plummeting and they have construction contracts for 4.3 billion in new rigs coming that were ordered when contract values for a rig were almost triple what they can get now. Add another 11 billion of debt they already have and even at zero percent interest they can't get anyone to finance them.

Maybe this is the home run speculation of a lifetime that can happen with a sudden reversal of oil prices. But in general this is a company that horribly misread it's market and is more likely than not to be on the way to bankruptcy and giving the assets to the bondholders and a new future company....

And Seadrill did file for Bankruptcy this year on Sept 12th, despite the massive 92% loss from 2014 to 2016 from 33 to 3, it still managed to fall another 97% to 0.28 in 2017 presently for some reason at 48 cents though it is likely to end up worth less than a nickel a share if initial analysis of the bankruptcy agreement is correct. Bondholders do have opportunity to get to be the new common of the emerging company.

 

[Fermion]

I was playing around with Seadrill and though I had gotten burned bad when I bought 2000 shares at $20 and sold them for $16. To see the company just a few years later at $0.20 or $0.45 or whatever it is today....dang.

I thought J.F. knew what he was doing but I guess not.

 

[aaronc879]

And Seadrill did file for Bankruptcy this year on Sept 12th, despite the massive 92% loss from 2014 to 2016 from 33 to 3, it still managed to fall another 97% to 0.28 in 2017 presently for some reason at 48 cents though it is likely to end up worth less than a nickel a share if initial analysis of the bankruptcy agreement is correct. Bondholders do have opportunity to get to be the new common of the emerging company.

I never owned Seadrill(SDRL) but I do own Seadrill Partners(SDLP). Still hoping to hold for a rebound now that they are out of danger of being dragged down by their parent companies bankruptcy. I think SDLP is under priced and am waiting for it to go over $5 before considering selling.

 

[Lakewood90712]

Here we go again, WTI looks headed to $40 by years end. Could we test the lows of the last oil downturn ?

 

[Car-Guy]

As I've said before in this thread, I've been swing trading oil stocks for a good while now and I have been accumulating XOM "again" (a few 1000 shares now) since mid Aug.. DCA is about 69.50 and it looks like today is going to be payday... Or maybe should I be greedy?

 

[njhowie]

Sell in pre-market right now. This is a knee-jerk reaction. I was buying XOM only a couple weeks ago at $67, I sold already for $75.90. Will repurchase at $70 and lower by end of the month.

 

[Car-Guy]

I'll wait and see if it really "pops" at the open but will probably sell in the first 10 mins and not get to greedy and just re-buy when it drops significantly again.

 

[Bigdawg]

I'll wait and see if it really "pops" at the open but will probably sell in the first 10 mins and not get to greedy and just re-buy when it drops significantly again.

looks like it popped a couple bucks. Did you pull the trigger?

 

[Car-Guy]

I'm out. The stock must really have high volumes.... It took almost two minutes to trade "at market" once I placed the order. Usually I see a market order trade almost instantly once I place it.


Now I'm waiting for GE to have a really good day!

 

[Bigdawg]

Now I'm waiting for GE to have a really good day!

Dumped the last of my GE last week. I was down to 15 shares. Good riddance.

 

[Car-Guy]

Dumped the last of my GE last week. I was down to 15 shares. Good riddance.

I only have 2500 shares that I bought in mid Aug at ~8.25 so it's not a big deal to me. It's a gamble but that's what swing trading is all about from my POV. I've got a "good to cancelled" sell order in at 11 but if it creeps up to 10, I'll probably take it then unless there is news that encourages me to hold longer.

In the past, my swing trading was measured in days (or sometimes a week or two). Now it's stretched out to many weeks or even a few months.

 

[target2019]

XOM on sale today. Treated myself to 10 shares. I suspect the sale persists...

 

[Car-Guy]

XOM on sale today. Treated myself to 10 shares. I suspect the sale persists...

Bought 500 XOM and 500 CVX yesterday, and just sold them both 5 mins ago.

 

[Running_Man]

And Seadrill did file for Bankruptcy this year on Sept 12th, despite the massive 92% loss from 2014 to 2016 from 33 to 3, it still managed to fall another 97% to 0.28 in 2017 presently for some reason at 48 cents though it is likely to end up worth less than a nickel a share if initial analysis of the bankruptcy agreement is correct. Bondholders do have opportunity to get to be the new common of the emerging company.

Interesting case, Seadrill emerged from bancruptcy with 2.3 billion in new cash and existing shareholders got 1.9 percent of the equity and creditors the remainder, in 2018 new stock issued with price of 75.00 Present stock a little over 15 months later is $1.87 down another amazing 95 percent.

SDRL is presently losing $2.55 a share and has a few billion in loans due in 2022. Looks like a good 2nd bankruptcy run

 

[Car-Guy]

Dumped the last of my GE last week. I was down to 15 shares. Good riddance.

I only have 2500 shares that I bought in mid Aug at ~8.25 so it's not a big deal to me. It's a gamble but that's what swing trading is all about from my POV. I've got a "good to cancelled" sell order in at 11 but if it creeps up to 10, I'll probably take it then unless there is news that encourages me to hold longer.

In the past, my swing trading was measured in days (or sometimes a week or two). Now it's stretched out to many weeks or even a few months.

Finally got out yesterday at 11. Now I wonder if I should have kept it longer But hey, ~7k profit in ~3 months on a ~21k investment is ok by me.