Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 09-21-2016, 07:22 AM   #1061
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 2,798
Quote:
Originally Posted by Car-Guy View Post
I've been telling myself for months that I'd quit swing trading CVX and XOM and start buying and holding them once they fall below a certain range. (for me that's 97 for CVX and 82 for XOM). Well they are both just about there. I'm hesitant but suspect I'll start buying and holding both of these pretty soon in small chunks, on down days, and DCA if they keep falling.

Any others considering big oil at these prices and world conditions?
After my last attempt at buying an individual oil stock at what I thought was a good price, I am done with individual stocks. The market is too unpredictable and volatile. I'll stick with index funds and maybe 1 or 2 vanguard mutual funds.
__________________

__________________
aaronc879 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 09-21-2016, 07:29 AM   #1062
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 2,409
Remember in this thread when we sort of liked Seadrill? I just noticed today it is $2

Wow.

Oil seems to be dead.
__________________

__________________
Fermion is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2016, 07:33 AM   #1063
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 2,798
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fermion View Post
Remember in this thread when we sort of liked Seadrill? I just noticed today it is $2

Wow.

Oil seems to be dead.
I never like Seadrill(SRDL) but I really liked Seadrill Partners(SDLP) and bought many thousands of shares at $5+ and it's now barely above $3. Ouch!
__________________
aaronc879 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2016, 12:40 PM   #1064
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
harley's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Following the nice weather
Posts: 5,965
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaronc879 View Post
After my last attempt at buying an individual oil stock at what I thought was a good price, I am done with individual stocks. The market is too unpredictable and volatile. I'll stick with index funds and maybe 1 or 2 vanguard mutual funds.
Maybe a good idea for you, but I want to point out that the problem you explained in another thread wasn't that you were trading individual stocks, but that you bet the house on a single stock. Even in individual stock trading it's better to have a little diversification. I've got about 20 stocks in my gambling portfolio. So even though my SDLP is down 50%, my overall portfolio is up quite nicely.
__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Will Rogers
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
harley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2016, 02:38 PM   #1065
Moderator
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: The Woodlands
Posts: 5,803
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fermion View Post
Remember in this thread when we sort of liked Seadrill? I just noticed today it is $2

Wow.

Oil seems to be dead.
Stay away from ANY oil services stock (onshore or offshore services). Until crude and natural gas prices go up, and stay up, these firms are going to be scrambling to stay in business. The only individual stock I would consider owning (long term) is ExxonMobil and that will be when it goes back to the low $70's or lower and does not cut the dividend.
__________________
......."Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face." -- philosopher Mike Tyson.
aja8888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2016, 03:06 PM   #1066
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,850
Coincidentally, I read speculation that if the election goes a certain way, federal leases for on and offshore drilling could be really opened up.
__________________
explanade is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2016, 03:15 PM   #1067
Moderator
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: The Woodlands
Posts: 5,803
Quote:
Originally Posted by explanade View Post
Coincidentally, I read speculation that if the election goes a certain way, federal leases for on and offshore drilling could be really opened up.
The last round of offshore lease sales went badly for the gov - no buyers. Too expensive to drill offshore. That's the bottom line.
__________________
......."Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face." -- philosopher Mike Tyson.
aja8888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2016, 04:05 PM   #1068
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,850
I thought some states had offshore drilling bans for years.

For instance CA in the '90s and FL in the 2000s.

But this was all before fracking and horizontal drilling techniques became refined.
__________________
explanade is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2016, 04:36 PM   #1069
Moderator
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: The Woodlands
Posts: 5,803
Quote:
Originally Posted by explanade View Post
I thought some states had offshore drilling bans for years.

For instance CA in the '90s and FL in the 2000s.

But this was all before fracking and horizontal drilling techniques became refined.

Correct, and they still do have bans. Opening up leases offshore won't do much good if there are few companies that can produce profitably. In addition, there are over 1,300 wells drilled onshore that are shut in waiting for completion and could be brought into production within a quick time frame.

Wells have been fracced since the early days of drilling (1940's and before). It's nothing new but there are much better methods and we can now frac long horizontal legs of wells, in which that technology wan't available over 10 years ago.

What is new is the shale play advances, better fraccing techniques, better downhole tooling, reliable and accurate 3D sismic tools, horizontal and directional drilling accuracy, etc. It's all mostly been available, but advancements in technology across the board have made finding and producing hydrocarbons more productive.

We still need to drill new wells in the U.S. to replace what's being sold here, but because of pricing, offshore makes no economic sense right now, leases or no leases.
__________________
......."Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face." -- philosopher Mike Tyson.
aja8888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-28-2016, 03:34 PM   #1070
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Car-Guy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Citizen of Texas
Posts: 1,854
Quote:
Originally Posted by Car-Guy View Post
I've been telling myself for months that I'd quit swing trading CVX and XOM and start buying and holding them once they fall below a certain range. (for me that's 97 for CVX and 82 for XOM). Well they are both just about there. I'm hesitant but suspect I'll start buying and holding both of these pretty soon in small chunks, on down days, and DCA if they keep falling.

Any others considering big oil at these prices and world conditions?
Well that was pure luck. XOM dropped to the mid 82 range yesterday so I picked up 1000 shares and was prepared to buy more as it dropped. Well today it jumped to over 87 at one point and I just couldn't resist. Missed the bottom yesterday and the top today by a little but not too bad.
__________________
Car-Guy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-28-2016, 03:51 PM   #1071
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,850
CNBC app. on my iPhone flashed a notification about an OPEC deal, which made oil futures go up. That was around 11:30 AM PST.
__________________
explanade is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-28-2016, 03:57 PM   #1072
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Car-Guy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Citizen of Texas
Posts: 1,854
Quote:
Originally Posted by explanade View Post
CNBC app. on my iPhone flashed a notification about an OPEC deal, which made oil futures go up. That was around 11:30 AM PST.
That's what did it. Held til near the market close today. Time will tell if I should have held but I can't kick too much on a 24 hour flip like that.
__________________
Car-Guy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-28-2016, 04:51 PM   #1073
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Sunset's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,986
Quote:
Originally Posted by Car-Guy View Post
That's what did it. Held til near the market close today. Time will tell if I should have held but I can't kick too much on a 24 hour flip like that.
You could call that Sweet Crude
__________________
Sunset is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-28-2016, 05:03 PM   #1074
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 306
I think that CVX, RDS, XOM, etc are valuable, high dividend paying stocks to keep. The world is still running on NG and Oil. Hopefully the price has stabilized.
__________________
VFK57 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-28-2016, 05:44 PM   #1075
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Car-Guy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Citizen of Texas
Posts: 1,854
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset View Post
You could call that Sweet Crude
__________________
Car-Guy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-02-2016, 10:22 PM   #1076
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Ed_The_Gypsy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,251
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaronc879 View Post
After my last attempt at buying an individual oil stock at what I thought was a good price, I am done with individual stocks. The market is too unpredictable and volatile. I'll stick with index funds and maybe 1 or 2 vanguard mutual funds.
Me too. I had good stocks. They are still good stocks but a whole lot cheaper than when I bought them.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Early Retirement Forum mobile app
__________________
my bumpersticker:
"I am not in a hurry.
I am retired.
And I don't care how big your truck is."
Ed_The_Gypsy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-2016, 10:19 AM   #1077
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
harley's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Following the nice weather
Posts: 5,965
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy View Post
Me too. I had good stocks. They are still good stocks but a whole lot cheaper than when I bought them.
Me too, but I'll just take a nap and at some point they'll be higher again. One thing I know is that I can't predict when.
__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Will Rogers
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
harley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-2016, 04:30 PM   #1078
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 306
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaronc879 View Post
After my last attempt at buying an individual oil stock at what I thought was a good price, I am done with individual stocks. The market is too unpredictable and volatile. I'll stick with index funds and maybe 1 or 2 vanguard mutual funds.
For decades I had my 401K in mutual funds, not anymore. What I noticed that if Market goes up 10% my funds were up 5 to 8%. Yet when Market was down 10%, my funds were down 12 - 15%. I also can not state that I am good in picking individual stocks.
__________________
VFK57 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-2016, 05:59 PM   #1079
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 16,679
Quote:
Originally Posted by VFK57 View Post
For decades I had my 401K in mutual funds, not anymore. What I noticed that if Market goes up 10% my funds were up 5 to 8%. Yet when Market was down 10%, my funds were down 12 - 15%. I also can not state that I am good in picking individual stocks.
So what do you do?

-ERD50
__________________
ERD50 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-2016, 06:34 PM   #1080
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 306
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
So what do you do?

-ERD50
I keep individual dividend paying stocks in pharmaceutical, REITs, oil. When some group going down, other gain, not equally. In regard to total gain the index funds are probably better yet dividends are part of our income and whenever my wife decides to retire we may add more to current dividend paying stocks, re balance our AA . I checked some dividend paying funds but somehow was not attracted to any. What would you recommend?
__________________

__________________
VFK57 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:22 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.