I like Oil

[MichaelB]

The data I recall is US gasoline consumption has been flat since '08 but recently began to increase once again. Here's the US DOE data U.S. Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels per Day)

[aja8888]

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcgang U.S. Total Gasoline Retail Sales by Refiners (Thousand Gallons per Day) Link shows US EIA data on gasoline consumption over the past 30 years. In 2003, never less than 60mm gallons per month. In 2014, never much more than 20mm per month. Remember in early 80s oil went from about $30 to $8 in about a month, and then stayed down for 10+ years. Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum

Retail sales by refiners is just sales to their "owned and operated" branded stations. Most large oil companies with refineries are selling branded stations to get out of retailing. In most cases they require the new buyer to maintain the "brand" since they usually broker them the refined product under a contract.

[bmcgonig]

Quote:

Originally Posted by aja8888 Retail sales by refiners is just sales to their "owned and operated" branded stations. Most large oil companies with refineries are selling branded stations to get out of retailing. In most cases they require the new buyer to maintain the "brand" since they usually broker them the refined product under a contract.

Aja, if I remember correctly you live in Texas. How do you feel about the Texas / Louisiana economy with all this going on?


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[dallas27]

OP here... Still haven't bought in yet. No carnage yet. Everyone seems to be playing international oil price chicken.

When it's starts going sideways for a couple intermediate players, I think i will buy in if my contributions are ready at the right time.


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[aja8888]

Quote:

Originally Posted by bmcgonig Aja, if I remember correctly you live in Texas. How do you feel about the Texas / Louisiana economy with all this going on? Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum

It seems the oil producers are still producing at the same rates as the current wells payout after drilling, and that could go on for years (with decline, of course). We will still need oil regardless of the price. Lots of talk and recent newspaper articles about a reduction in new drilling activity and that will happen, but with a time lag. Article in today's Houston Chronicle mentions upcoming job losses in oil related industries.

I would suspect that energy type jobs will soften and there will be layoffs, but no real sense that it is escalating yet.

Low oil prices, say under $40/bbl, would have to persist for a couple of years before the Gulf economies would really suffer. Right now, just the expensive projects will be put on hold (new horizontal wells, deep offshore drilling, etc).

Holiday Inn Express rooms are still $300/night in Midland/Odessa.....

[Jack_Pine]

I have read Saudi is budgeting for $80 oil in 2015. That should tell you something.......

[redduck]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jack_Pine I have read Saudi is budgeting for $80 oil in 2015. That should tell you something.......

It tells me that you read something from some source that stated Saudi is budgeting oil at $80 sometime in 2015.

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Quote:

Quote: Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy 10 weeks to go turned into 3 weeks to go. Project cancelled and we were all given notice. Good thing. That chair was killing me. Are you going to hang up your spurs?

First, going "Home for a Rest", as Spirit of the West sings:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPJD3qcIL7s

Then, we hope to get tickets to Jerry Jeff Walker's birthday party in Greune, TX. Then, we shall see.

I hope to help out an old friend with his projects. There may be some paid consulting in it. I also hope to give some presentations at Ft McMurray on oilsands subjects and maybe talks on operating and troubleshooting gas plants.

I also plan to start up a little slurry testing lab, but that may take a while as I will take it in small steps.

When it stops being fun, I will stop.

I may take up welding and decorative ironwork. Baku is rich with such stuff and it tickled my dormant Sandy Calder.

I will be busy for w while though. Two of those three weeks are while I am in the US on annual leave. We have 10 days to pack and leave Baku.

Cheers,

old Ed

[bld999]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy First, going "Home for a Rest", as Spirit of the West sings: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPJD3qcIL7s Then, we hope to get tickets to Jerry Jeff Walker's birthday party in Greune, TX. Then, we shall see. I hope to help out an old friend with his projects. There may be some paid consulting in it. I also hope to give some presentations at Ft McMurray on oilsands subjects and maybe talks on operating and troubleshooting gas plants. I also plan to start up a little slurry testing lab, but that may take a while as I will take it in small steps. When it stops being fun, I will stop. I may take up welding and decorative ironwork. Baku is rich with such stuff and it tickled my dormant Sandy Calder. I will be busy for w while though. Two of those three weeks are while I am in the US on annual leave. We have 10 days to pack and leave Baku. Cheers, old Ed

Well, congratulations.

Projects where you both steer and have your foot on the throttle are more fun than when you steer and somebody else's foot is to the floor.

Welding is a kick, if you try it.

[jimnjana]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jack_Pine I have read Saudi is budgeting for $80 oil in 2015. That should tell you something.......

Saudi 2015 budget based on oil price around $60 : Peak Oil News

In Saudi they are reading about budgeting for 60 oil in 2015.

[aja8888]

Texas is waitin' for ya Ed.

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by aja8888 Texas is waitin' for ya Ed.

Thanks, AJ. We are on our way!

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by bld999 Well, congratulations. Projects where you both steer and have your foot on the throttle are more fun than when you steer and somebody else's foot is to the floor.

You betcha, Red Ryder!

Quote:

Originally Posted by bld999 Welding is a kick, if you try it.

I have done a bit. Agreed!

[Jack_Pine]

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimnjana Saudi 2015 budget based on oil price around $60 : Peak Oil News In Saudi they are reading about budgeting for 60 oil in 2015.

I say that one also. The one I saw was in the international business times. Who knows. From our business point of view I like 80 better than 60.

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Quote:

Quote: Originally Posted by bld999 Welding is a kick, if you try it. I have done a bit. Agreed!

Maybe I should have said, "It's a gas!"

[imoldernu]

Before even considering ANY investment in oil beyond a very short term, may I suggest that taking the time to watch this Senate hearing from Dec. 11 would be well worth the time.

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975: Are We Positioning America for Success in an Era of Energy Abundance? | Energy & Commerce Committee

Never has "buyer beware" been more important.

Any single piece of legislation, any slight change in international relations (even not involving the US), any movement in production of any energy related product, could trigger massive swings in the oil market. The chances of being on the winning side, are little to none.

I thought I understood something about the energy market, but the depositions in this hearing were stunning. Reminded me of this:
ELEPHANT AND THE BLIND MEN

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by imoldernu Before even considering ANY investment in oil beyond a very short term, may I suggest that taking the time to watch this Senate hearing from Dec. 11 would be well worth the time. The Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975: Are We Positioning America for Success in an Era of Energy Abundance? | Energy & Commerce Committee Never has "buyer beware" been more important. Any single piece of legislation, any slight change in international relations (even not involving the US), any movement in production of any energy related product, could trigger massive swings in the oil market. The chances of being on the winning side, are little to none. I thought I understood something about the energy market, but the depositions in this hearing were stunning. Reminded me of this: ELEPHANT AND THE BLIND MEN

I figure no matter how stupid the decisions are, sooner or later reality will force a new balance. (I do understand that I have more time to wait for this than you do. Do I have enough time? Dunno. In recent history, crude prices returned to previous highs in one to three years. This time may be different.)

[imoldernu]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy I figure no matter how stupid the decisions are, sooner or later reality will force a new balance. (I do understand that I have more time to wait for this than you do. Do I have enough time? Dunno. In recent history, crude prices returned to previous highs in one to three years. This time may be different.)

Hmm... The reason I posted the hearings, is because the foremost experts in energy in the US, discussed the possibility that crude oil may not be the factor we see today, that change could occur within a short time frame, and that shifts of producers, refiners, and users could dramatically change in directions that we never hear discussed... not just alternative energy, but some new technology for discovery and extraction that could result in hundreds if not thousands of small producers working on a decentralized basis. Alternates to pipelines, trucking and large refineries.
Obviously, political and diplomatic relations and the threat of embargos or war, could have an instant result of disruption, but even without that, a wide ranging policy shift within the government... a shift to equalize energy values by way of taxes or incentives.
The discussion was wide ranging. Perhaps not to change the landscape overnight, but most certainly, none of the experts were speaking in terms of decades, but of possibilities that are around the corner. In any case, a market that can and does shift in the blink of an eye, and predicting the effect of the derivatives market IMHO, a very difficult game.

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Hmm... I will watch this, but a little later. I really gotta see who these 'experts' are and what they have to say.

Personally, I would be ecstatic if a dirt-cheap alternative energy replaced hydrocarbons, even if it costs me dearly. It would destroy the oil-producing countries, and good riddance. (I still do not understand why thorium reactors aren't everywhere.)

"Alternates to pipelines, trucking and large refineries." THIS I have to see.

More later.

Ed

[aja8888]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy Hmm... I will watch this, but a little later. I really gotta see who these 'experts' are and what they have to say. Personally, I would be ecstatic if a dirt-cheap alternative energy replaced hydrocarbons, even if it costs me dearly. It would destroy the oil-producing countries, and good riddance. (I still do not understand why thorium reactors aren't everywhere.) "Alternates to pipelines, trucking and large refineries." THIS I have to see. More later. Ed

Ed, you need to watch more old Star Trek...the answers are hidden in there:

Star Trek Into Darkness (2013) - IMDb