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aaronc879 · 03-18-2015, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mulligan

I just don't understand the integrated oil stock prices....13 months ago I bought Chevron a bit under $108 at $100 barrel. And now at sub $45 oil Chevron is trading over $106... Doesn't make sense to this person.
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I'm no expert with regards to oil companies but doesn't Chevron refine the oil? It shouldn't matter what the cost of crude oil is, Chevron refines it and sells it with the same profit margin(I assume). I would think their profits go up and down based on the amount they refine not the price they pay for the crude.

Lakewood90712 · 03-18-2015, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aaronc879

I'm no expert with regards to oil companies but doesn't Chevron refine the oil? It shouldn't matter what the cost of crude oil is, Chevron refines it and sells it with the same profit margin(I assume). I would think their profits go up and down based on the amount they refine not the price they pay for the crude.

Not that simple. The refiners margin gets squeezed when crude is high , finally now making good profit on refining and marketing . The stock price is indicative of the earnings and dividend. Chevron being an integrated oil does a lot of exploration worldwide for both oil and gas. They also make money buying swapping and selling oil and gas properties. They make lot's of money on oil and gas when neither touches their refinery.

On the final end of marketing, that soda, beer or candybar at the foodmart at your local gas station makes for more retail profit than the gasoline they sell you.

I own Chevron in my portfolio. Just my 2 cents worth

dallas27 · 03-20-2015, 01:17 PM

Bought into UCO with 1% of portfolio. Let's see where this train goes.

nuke_diver · 03-20-2015, 02:24 PM

Was giving RDS some serious consideration given the current yield and value but was still in the research phase...up 2% today compared to 0.15% on XOM. So will see what monday brings and do some more research

FUEGO · 03-23-2015, 07:33 AM

Interesting tidbit from Yahoo finance: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/robert...124131252.html

Robert Shiller says "buy oil".

His reasoning echos mine. "Prices are very low and there are a lot of reasons to assume that they won't stay low. That's what I've bet on." I don't see demand shifting away any time soon, and if prices stay low, there will be some substitution effect to use cheap oil.

kikechico · 03-26-2015, 04:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dallas27

Bought into UCO with 1% of portfolio. Let's see where this train goes.

So far is going well...

dallas27 · 03-26-2015, 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kikechico

So far is going well...

Ya, up 15% in a week. Could all go poof, but i can't complain.

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aaronc879 · 03-26-2015, 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dallas27

Ya, up 15% in a week. Could all go poof, but i can't complain.

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I bought SDLP a couple months ago and it went up over 20% in about a week. Two or three weeks later it was negative 15%. Now it's up to almost even. Lots of volatility right now with these stocks.

dallas27 · 03-26-2015, 04:24 PM

22%

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papadad111 · 03-30-2015, 08:04 AM

Poof.

target2019 · 03-30-2015, 02:22 PM

These are trades I've made in energy. Dividends not included.
full position in PBF PBF Energy Inc 12/5/2014 $28.50
1/4 position in STO Statoil ASA(ADR) 12/29/2014 $17.91
1/2 position in STO Statoil ASA(ADR) 11/26/2014 $21.97

We are ahead 5% unrealized. The surprise has been PBF, a refiner, which is up 20%. I wasn't patient enough with the 1st purchase in STO.

Changed my target for XOM (to 82) and CVX (to 102). Patience required...

And my SEP contribution to Vanguard Energy fund VGENX went in on a day there was a 2% pop.

I'd summarize that as pop, poof, and pfft.

dallas27 · 03-31-2015, 12:13 AM

With yemen heating up, risking the suez control, i'm liking the potential upside. A lot of strife right now.

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Mr._Graybeard · 03-31-2015, 06:33 AM

U.S. oil storage crunch might cut crude prices

HF63 · 04-01-2015, 03:51 PM

I am keeping an eye on EC and probably I'll buy some PBR!

FUEGO · 04-01-2015, 06:02 PM

With the way these oil prices bounce around, I need to buy some PBR too. Or maybe something even stronger.

target2019 · 04-01-2015, 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FUEGO

With the way these oil prices bounce around, I need to buy some PBR too. Or maybe something even stronger.

1 share GIN + 4 shares TONIC.

imoldernu · 04-02-2015, 06:40 AM

It's time to look a fracking companies which are being hard hit by losing their credit lines. As most of these are supported by bank loans (being start-up businesses), even short term losses endanger the investments.
Even if there is a longer term recovery in oil prices, the bankruptcy overhang may extend well into the future, and make future financing risky, Unless and until long term stability returns to the market, the cost to rebuild the fracking industry may be high, and that may well affect the projected lower, long term prices.

aja8888 · 04-03-2015, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by imoldernu

It's time to look a fracking companies which are being hard hit by losing their credit lines. As most of these are supported by bank loans (being start-up businesses), even short term losses endanger the investments.
Even if there is a longer term recovery in oil prices, the bankruptcy overhang may extend well into the future, and make future financing risky, Unless and until long term stability returns to the market, the cost to rebuild the fracking industry may be high, and that may well affect the projected lower, long term prices.

Fracking really is not an industry, it's a well completion technique used by a sub contractor under contract from an oil producer.

The fraccing service, which has been done to complete wells since the 1940's or earlier, consists these days of a series of high pressure fluid and controlled expolsive charges introduced into a well bore at the point where the formation is thought to contain oil/gas. In newer, horizontal wells, the play area is fairly long since the bore is horizontal (that's the new technology) thus requiring orders of magnitude more water, sand and chemicals (mostly diesel fuel) injected into the "fracced" area after controlled explosives break the formation.

Many independent fraccing companies surfaced during the 2008 - now oil boom to service the longer horizontal bores which will produce more produce for a short period of time. These companies bought pumping trucks, sand haulers, expensive down hole measuring equipment, hired frac engineers, etc. If some of these service companies go under, which some will, but not all, the equipment will still be available if the industry turns around (which it will).

Plus, what many forget, is the oil industry in this country still needs to produce at a rate of 9+ million barrels per day to keep "even" with where we are today, given we still import most of our shortfall (3+ MM BPD) of crude oil from Canada and Mexico.

So, the fraccing companies may be short of work, but many are not dead in the water. Horizontal drilling and big frac jobs will be alive and well as that is the new technology of America.