Not everyone else.I was much heavier invested then, and like everyone else, I lost a ton.
Some of us had an Asset Allocation strategy that we were comfortable with. Some of us didn't lose a ton. Some of us didn't lost any sleep.
Not everyone else.I was much heavier invested then, and like everyone else, I lost a ton.
I'm getting spooked about the markets
Hmm. Have you calculated the rate of return you got on the rest of your portfolio for the past 5 years? And thus you know the cost of sleeping well?
Did you mean to use the Schiller P/E in the first paragraph and the P/E in the second? Of course, they are different things. S&P 500 P/E right now is 23.74, about the same as one year ago. And I’m seeing a yield of 1.82% on the S&P 500 presently.
Not in my neighborhood. No one has sold a house around here since JFK was in office. The next generation of the family just moves in when the previous one dies.
Hmm. Have you calculated the rate of return you got on the rest of your portfolio for the past 5 years? And thus you know the cost of sleeping well?
Believe me, I *know* it was stupid to have cash the last 5 years. I guess the sarcasm in my last post was not that obvious.
Thankfully, it's just 5% of my portfolio. And at least I get some interest.
Glad you're sleeping well! I sure wish I was. In the past 5 years, I've averaged a 11.5% rate of return on my investments.I wish that crash would hurry-up and happen, because I've had $100k in cash I've been wanting to invest since 2013! At least I've been sleeping well the last 5 years.
Hmm. Have you calculated the rate of return you got on the rest of your portfolio for the past 5 years? And thus you know the cost of sleeping well?
Glad you're sleeping well! I sure wish I was. In the past 5 years, I've averaged a 11.5% rate of return on my investments.
Your purchasing power, according to the CPI, has dropped by 7% over the same period. With inflation, being 'safe', means losing money.
Perhaps instead of playing individual stocks/ETFS and trying to time the market, move it all into a nice balanced fund.
That way you can rest easy that you will automatically be buying low (when the market goes down) and selling high (when the market increases). You will be under no obligation to "react" to market behavior because it will be automatically happening for you.
This is the change that I made to my investing strategy when I ERd.
Now that I have FIRED and changed to my balanced fund strategy I have much more financial peace in my life.
-gauss
OP, are you permanently changing your asset allocation?
Or, are you planning to get back in the market when you believe values are lower?
"Yes" to the first question can represent an appropriate strategy depending on your current situation and your goals*. "Yes" to the second question represents market timing and MT has a poor record and leads to the losses you mentioned in your post.
*A zero stock allocation has lower survival rates over the long term compared to allocations with stock. Make sure your planned new AA will survive. You might want to run your new AA through Firecalc.
Zweig (of the WSJ) is pretty much the only writer I see on the internet that has any credibility with me.+1. I recommend that you read "Your Money and Your Brain" by Jason Zweig. It will help you sort out the emotions around investing.
I changed my allocation to that of a person 30 years my senior back when the CAPE ratio hit the rock breaks scissors trigger. So I have missed out on a few years of gains. Sigh. But I'm not changing my allocation until it hits the bottom trigger. Hopefully I won't need to wait 30 years! WAIT a minute! I just wished for a huge drop in equity pricing. I'm not sure I really want THAT!
I have always had this in my plan. + a heloc, + multiple high line credit cards. So, pulling back discretionary in a recession would extend that even more. That allows me to comfortably ride highs and brace for lows.
Same here. That's the main reason we have always maintained the extra year or two of cash equivalents since retiring. It let us go all out in 2000-2002 without skipping a beat (back then we called it our travel fund), and in 2008 I didn't worry about cutting back our spending at all. Definitely didn't want to cut back while we were younger.I don't understand how "pulling back discretionary" and "allows me to comfortably ride highs and brace for lows" go together. If you cut back discretionary, isn't that making yourself less comfortable?
I suppose it depends on your age and how much you value your time, but if DW and I had to cut out travel, dining out, hobbies and other typical discretionary expenditures during a market downturn, we'd consider that to be much less "comfortable."
We kept all planned discretionary spending at full throttle during the 2008 - 09 debacle and never regretted it. It was a risk we took because we valued our time (we were 60ish back then) and doing age appropriate things while we could.
Perhaps it's just semantics.
Sorry, logical leaps not allowed. "Cut back" is not equal to "cut out."... if you cut back ... if DW and I had to cut out travel, dining out, hobbies and other typical discretionary expenditures during a market downturn, we'd consider that to be much less "comfortable." ...