Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
I'm getting spooked about the markets
Old 08-10-2018, 05:50 AM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 75
I'm getting spooked about the markets

I've had a very uneasy feeling for the past few weeks. I don't have a lot in the market anymore compared to many of you (about 100K), but it's significant amount to me.
It is spread out in a few funds, a few ETF's, and couple stock (XOM,T)
Most of my money is now in laddered CD's. The online rates (hopefully) will be getting close to 4% soon.

I have nothing to back up my feeling, I know the economy is going good, but I must have a little PTSD in me from the last few market drops, I was much heavier invested then, and like everyone else, I lost a ton.

Anyway, I think I am going to pull out over the next few weeks/months and be done with it, I don't want to go through another correction. I don't have the risk tolerance that I did 30 years ago.
Good luck to all!
__________________

jjflyman is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 08-10-2018, 05:58 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 44,502
Emotions (feelings) and market investing don't mix well. The number of posts like yours that foresaw something that didn't happen far outnumber those who can come back later and say, "I told you so".

However, I understand you have to do what allows you to sleep well. Sweet dreams.
__________________

__________________
Numbers is hard

Charter resident of the lumpen slums of cyberspace

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2018, 06:06 AM   #3
Full time employment: Posting here.
Oz investor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 547
whatever amount that is important to you IS important to you ,

i have been suspecting a drop since 2013 , but i also needed to stay in the market because it was the only mid-term growth in town ( at an acceptable risk and liquidity )

the next crash will be my first but that only means i am extra cautious

good luck i would love to tell my disaster plan will work .. i really would
__________________
i hold the Australian listed versions of BHP , and JHG .

You must learn from the mistakes of others. You can't possibly live long enough to make them all yourself.

Samuel Levenson
Oz investor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2018, 06:11 AM   #4
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: The Deep South Bay
Posts: 744
I pulled out 17 years ago and have no need for gains at this point in my life, my main and only concern is preservation. I have nothing against the market, it propelled me to where I am today.
97guns is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2018, 06:15 AM   #5
Full time employment: Posting here.
Oz investor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 547
i need the gains but will be unlikely to recover from any major losses ( say 50% plus )

the next big crash will certainly be educational for me
__________________
i hold the Australian listed versions of BHP , and JHG .

You must learn from the mistakes of others. You can't possibly live long enough to make them all yourself.

Samuel Levenson
Oz investor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2018, 06:31 AM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Dash man's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Limerick
Posts: 2,185
Well, I just put another $60k in the market, in 529 plans for my grandkids. Fortunately that is for a longer time frame. For my retirement funds, I still have about 65% in the market, with the balance in CDs, MM and high yield savings accounts. We can last ten years if need be on the safer funds.
Dash man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2018, 06:34 AM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 4,978
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjflyman View Post
and like everyone else, I lost a ton.
I didn't lose a dime and I don't think 'everyone' here lost anything either.

My neighbor, OTOH lost a ton because she sold everything on the last week of February 2009.

"...a feeling...", like hope, is not a strategy. Figure out your risk tolerance and position accordingly.
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
marko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2018, 06:35 AM   #8
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 2,327
You need to do what is comfortable for you. Additionally if 100k represents a significant amount to you, then all the more reason you need to do what makes you sleep well at night. Nothing wrong with that.
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2018, 06:38 AM   #9
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 1,906
I have all I need for the next 10 years in bonds or short term investments. The rest of my portfolio will ride the waves of the market...worry free. Lived to tell the tale of ‘87, 91, ‘00, ‘08.... Cover yourself for the near term, but don’t forget about the future. Markets always reach new highs.
COcheesehead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2018, 06:40 AM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,711
I try to be diversified and nondenominational in my investments. I have mostly real estate and equities, with some cash and treasuries to cover drops in income and any buying opportunities. Plus two pensions and Social Security, which I consider as investments because I "bought" them, even though they are out of my control.

A 50 percent plus crash across all asset classes will cause a lot of tears, but not starvation. If there is cash available, I will be backing up the truck to load up whatever is on sale.
Another Reader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2018, 06:44 AM   #11
Recycles dryer sheets
Newventurer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: in the sticks
Posts: 443
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oz investor View Post
whatever amount that is important to you IS important to you ,

i have been suspecting a drop since 2013
Me too, Iíve been wrong for a long time
Newventurer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2018, 06:57 AM   #12
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
flintnational's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Atlanta Suburb
Posts: 1,002
OP, are you permanently changing your asset allocation?

Or, are you planning to get back in the market when you believe values are lower?

"Yes" to the first question can represent an appropriate strategy depending on your current situation and your goals*. "Yes" to the second question represents market timing and MT has a poor record and leads to the losses you mentioned in your post.

*A zero stock allocation has lower survival rates over the long term compared to allocations with stock. Make sure your planned new AA will survive. You might want to run your new AA through Firecalc.
__________________
"Oh, twice as much ain't twice as good
And can't sustain like one half could
It's wanting more that's gonna send me to my knees" - John Mayer
flintnational is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2018, 06:58 AM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 1,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjflyman View Post
I've had a very uneasy feeling for the past few weeks. I don't have a lot in the market anymore compared to many of you (about 100K), but it's significant amount to me.
It is spread out in a few funds, a few ETF's, and couple stock (XOM,T)
Most of my money is now in laddered CD's. The online rates (hopefully) will be getting close to 4% soon.

I have nothing to back up my feeling, I know the economy is going good, but I must have a little PTSD in me from the last few market drops, I was much heavier invested then, and like everyone else, I lost a ton.

Anyway, I think I am going to pull out over the next few weeks/months and be done with it, I don't want to go through another correction. I don't have the risk tolerance that I did 30 years ago.
Good luck to all!
Quote:
Originally Posted by 97guns View Post
I pulled out 17 years ago and have no need for gains at this point in my life, my main and only concern is preservation. I have nothing against the market, it propelled me to where I am today.
I hear you loud and clear. It really comes down to, IMO, whether or not you "need" the gains, or can afford or not afford to ride out a big drop. In 2000 I could afford to ride it out because I was only 47 years old, and planned on working and funding my retirement accounts for another 15 years. It was the classic "buying opportunity". Well, now I'm on the cusp of my 65th birthday, I'm living on my accumulated assets, and I can ill afford to lose a huge chunk that might take 10 or 15 years to rebound from, while I am pulling out other assets to live on.
I can survive missing out on part of the big run-up, much more comfortably than I would survive losing a ton of money in a rerun of what happened between 2000 and 2015.
HadEnuff is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2018, 07:01 AM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 19,953
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjflyman View Post
.... and like everyone else, I lost a ton. ....
Quote:
Originally Posted by marko View Post
I didn't lose a dime and I don't think 'everyone' here lost anything either. ...
+1 I had a ton of paper losses that utimately reversed... those who stayed the course were handsomely rewarded... those who panicked lost money. I know a couple people in their 70s at the time who sold, took big losses and never got back in.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.

Retired Jan 2012 at age 56...60/35/5 AA
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2018, 07:02 AM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
gauss's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 2,354
Perhaps instead of playing individual stocks/ETFS and trying to time the market, move it all into a nice balanced fund.

That way you can rest easy that you will automatically be buying low (when the market goes down) and selling high (when the market increases). You will be under no obligation to "react" to market behavior because it will be automatically happening for you.

This is the change that I made to my investing strategy when I ERd.

Now that I have FIRED and changed to my balanced fund strategy I have much more financial peace in my life.

-gauss
gauss is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2018, 07:15 AM   #16
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,536
I share your concern. With US inflation approaching 3% and the Shiller P/E above 30, with are approaching a negative real yield. That's not good news.

To fully explain: a P/E of 30 = 3.33% earnings yield, minus 3% inflation (roughly, again) is 0.33% positive earnings yield.

That almost never happened, and when it happened within a year bad things tended to materialize.

In addition, TIPS have a yield of >0.8% so in effect those treasury bonds are yielding more than stocks. Ask Benjamin Graham what he would think about that, and you'd get a very clear answer.

I'm still exposed in indexes though (~20% of NW), to minimize regrets.
Totoro is offline   Reply With Quote
Market timing
Old 08-10-2018, 07:18 AM   #17
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: May 2015
Location: El Dorado
Posts: 44
Market timing

Let me tell you a likely scenario. You get out now, the market goes up another 20% over the next two years then drops 15% and you get back in, then the market drops another 40% and you get back out. You've lost half your money. The problem isn't getting out at a decent time so much as when do you get back in?
steveark is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2018, 07:23 AM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,536
Presumably OP knows himself well enough to assess his likely response to market implosions or runups, and adjust. Let's call it investing wisdom.

For myself, I believe I have the calibration roughly correct too, with (some) historical evidence that I can sit on my arse and do nothing even when getting hammered.
Totoro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2018, 07:31 AM   #19
Recycles dryer sheets
Choices's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Rural VT
Posts: 272
Yeah, I know the ride cannot last. Expected the big downturn in 2016... never happened. Completely retired now with enough in cash and equivalents to last 5 years. SS and RMDs come on in about 4 years. We will ride it out.
We always have, except for one time around 1987 or 88. Learned my lesson, cost me $50.00.
As wiser folks than I have said, you gotta do whatever is in your comfort zone. We are not far enough ahead to go to all cash/bonds, etc. not that I would anyway. Wasn’t it Peter Lynch who said investing in bonds was just as much work, with half the return?
Choices is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2018, 07:36 AM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 8,010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Totoro View Post
I share your concern.


I'm still exposed in indexes though (~20% of NW), to minimize regrets.
I've been spooked for years. My fixed income assets along with SS is enough to take me to the house. I keep a similar amount in stocks as you for growth.
__________________

__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
cd's


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Turning 30, Getting married and getting started. Coderguy Hi, I am... 22 07-20-2010 04:09 PM
OK, I'm spooked brewer12345 FIRE and Money 22 12-04-2006 06:26 PM
Affordable & unaffordable real estate markets Nords FIRE and Money 57 03-22-2005 02:35 PM
How confident are you in the markets? GTM FIRE and Money 19 10-22-2004 01:29 PM
Re: SWR Emerging and International Markets wabmester FIRE and Money 2 08-09-2004 05:58 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:16 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.