Investing for Japan-style future

[Pilot2013]

Incidentally, US-listed companies are already diversified geographically, especially the S&P 500.

This is the answer, along with a lot of other factors. Not saying the US can't turn negatively, but the chances are against it long term.

I certainly don't think an immigration policy change is going to have a big impact.

 

[Pilot2013]

The problem is that this is not the lived reality for the vast majority of the people about to become unemployed.

It seems like your assumption is, this "about to be unemployed" situation is going to happen in 6 months, or even 6 years.

As has been pointed out by others, progress has always been met with changing employment/vocations. This thread seems a little bit "chicken little" like to me.

 

[MichaelB]

I'll grant that those farmers may have moved from growing vegetables to producing automobiles. But what we're talking about now is the elimination of the need for humans as factors of production anywhere, whether to grow food or make cars. It may be a failure of imagination, and I sure hope I'm wrong, but I can't think of what all those people will do for a living in the not too distant future.

Your concern is not at all unrealistic. An economic system can be at equilibrium, and self-sustaining, with only half the population actively participating, and the other half idle and absent. History has endless examples,so does a casual look around the globe. Capital and automation can realistically displace a large percentage of the workforce, and while future generations may benefit from progress, there is no assurance the current, displaced workforce will ever again see gainful employment. Another equally undesirable scenario is automation and technology reducing most jobs to minimum skill, leading to a workforce woefully underemployed.

This is not an automatic outcome. First, and most importantly, policy makers have tools to prevent this outcome. In other words, this scenario is only one possibility. (Now, how to discuss this without violating community rules about politics ) In addition, demand is growing elsewhere, and will probably continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Skilled professionals and businesses can take advantage of that to create employment opportunities here at home.

 

[OldShooter]

... what we're talking about now is the elimination of the need for humans as factors of production anywhere, whether to grow food or make cars. ...

Objection. Witness is speculating.

Really, there is no logical basis for such a distopian view. There is a vast range of jobs that cannot be automated, ranging from barbers to judges and including the people that will design, build, operate, and repair the various bits of automation. And, of course, politicians and bureaucrats.

 

[AnonEMouse]

Objection. Witness is speculating.

Really, there is no logical basis for such a distopian view. There is a vast range of jobs that cannot be automated, ranging from barbers to judges and including the people that will design, build, operate, and repair the various bits of automation. And, of course, politicians and bureaucrats.

Let me hitch a ride on this thought train... Assuming AI advances as expected, robots should be able to build and repair themselves and perhaps even reprogram and upgrade themselves. Perhaps new models may have to be dreamed up by humans for a time, but that would require relatively few people.

That means the vast majority of humans would have to enter politics or work for the government. Sounds like a universal income but you have to push paper for it.

Where will the money come from? The machines will have to pay taxes of course.

Hmm, it was a joke, but a brief google search shows

https://www.wired.com/2017/05/will-pay-future-not-robots/

 

[OldShooter]

... Assuming AI advances as expected, robots should be able to build and repair themselves and perhaps even reprogram and upgrade themselves. ...

"as expected" in the 1950s, we were all supposed to be riding around in flying cars by now and vacationing on the moon. I'm not worried.

& BTW I was not trying to enumerate all the jobs that will still be around or will be created. That will only be clear in the rear view mirror.

It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.

 

[Amethyst]

I never heard that, but I am aware that Japanese are heavily into U.S. real estate, particularly Hawaii. Perhaps they bought most of it before their crash, though.

IIRC, Japanese cannot buy foreign equities.

 

[LiveBelowMeans]

I believe we are likely to see a Japan type slowdown, mainly due to demographics. The link below shows the demographic pyramid for the US over different times. With all of the baby boomers retiring, the economy will likely be slow for years. Especially given that we seem to want to limit immigration. To the question of how to invest, I believe we will be stuck with very low interest rates for years to come. Retirees will be clamoring for yield. This explains the success of dividend paying stocks. The only place for investors to turn is stocks, and I would expect stocks to get to unprecedented levels. Anything that pays a decent dividend will attract buyers. JMHO

https://karlstrobl.com/2013/02/19/the-demographic-brink-before-the-fiscal-cliff/

 

[Amethyst]

I don't see carpenters, plumbers or electricians being replaced by robots any time soon. Maybe about the same time there are real robot housemaids (no, not a little vacuum that skates around the floor).

Objection. Witness is speculating.

Really, there is no logical basis for such a distopian view. There is a vast range of jobs that cannot be automated, ranging from barbers to judges and including the people that will design, build, operate, and repair the various bits of automation. And, of course, politicians and bureaucrats.

 

[dallas27]

Objection. Witness is speculating.

Really, there is no logical basis for such a distopian view. There is a vast range of jobs that cannot be automated, ranging from barbers to judges and including the people that will design, build, operate, and repair the various bits of automation. And, of course, politicians and bureaucrats.

Actually, judges are one of the prime targets for AI research. There is a strong belief that AI can actually be impartial and provide the most universal fairness in justice if we can develop it. Gigantic improvement in racial and economic bias is possible only by removing the human factor.

 

[dallas27]

I believe we are likely to see a Japan type slowdown, mainly due to demographics. The link below shows the demographic pyramid for the US over different times. With all of the baby boomers retiring, the economy will likely be slow for years. Especially given that we seem to want to limit immigration. To the question of how to invest, I believe we will be stuck with very low interest rates for years to come. Retirees will be clamoring for yield. This explains the success of dividend paying stocks. The only place for investors to turn is stocks, and I would expect stocks to get to unprecedented levels. Anything that pays a decent dividend will attract buyers. JMHO

https://karlstrobl.com/2013/02/19/the-demographic-brink-before-the-fiscal-cliff/

Yup, those are the right numbers to be thinking about, and why we are so dependent on immigration for economic survivability. EM demo's are just so much stronger and reflect us in the 40s/50s.

 

[Totoro]

Actually, judges are one of the prime targets for AI research. There is a strong belief that AI can actually be impartial and provide the most universal fairness in justice if we can develop it. Gigantic improvement in racial and economic bias is possible only by removing the human factor.

It's already in use, mostly as sentencing guidelines and background research tooling, but also to assess (yikes) recidivism risk. Final call is still with judge.

Not only judges, also law firms (discovery). Paralegals are a shrinking employment group from what I heard.

 

[gayl]

FWIW, a few months ago my mechanical system had me moving to Vfwax from Vfiax. Next month who knows.

please explain what a 'mechanical' system is

 

[Gumby]

An interesting article from The Economist on automation and unemployment. I think it touches on many of the things we've been discussing.

https://www.economist.com/news/spec...ause-mass-unemployment-automation-and-anxiety

 

[brewer12345]

Personally, I am waiting for the widespread appearance of these:

 

[sengsational]

I'm waiting for soilent green before I'm ready for the booth (I want my remains to be useful).

 

[aja8888]

I wonder if that booth has a cremation option? That would be good for combining tasks and possibly saving a later expense.

 

[brewer12345]

I wonder if that booth has a cremation option? That would be good for combining tasks and possibly saving a later expense.

How do you think they power it?

 

[aja8888]

How do you think they power it?

In our town, all the utilities are underground. I suspect you could have your choice of natural gas or electrical power put in through the base.

 

[brewer12345]

In our town, all the utilities are underground. I suspect you could have your choice of natural gas or electrical power put in through the base.

Cremation-powered turbine is much more ecological. Doesn't even require a JHP antidepressant.

 

[Totoro]

I'm waiting for soilent green before I'm ready for the booth (I want my remains to be useful).

Your remains likely are too toxic to be deemed fit for mass consumption. Only partially joking.

 

[OldShooter]

Is there a trophy or an award for the weirdest thread topic drift?

 

[sengsational]

Your remains likely are too toxic to be deemed fit for mass consumption. Only partially joking.

Even somebody as crusty as me would be turned into a hearty snack....you know how they remove the mercury from fish oil? Remove the toxicity from crusty old men

 

[dallas27]

This thread is like seeing that ugly co-worker you slept with friday at the water cooler monday. Everything just feels weird all of a sudden.

 

[brewer12345]

This thread is like seeing that ugly co-worker you slept with friday at the water cooler monday. Everything just feels weird all of a sudden.

Squirrel pot pie does no sound so bad after all?