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Is it time to buy Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)
Old 11-20-2008, 05:02 PM   #1
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Is it time to buy Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)

It is down to only 15% of where it was a few months ago.
PE 3, etc, etc, The numbers make it look like a steal.

Any takers?
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Old 11-20-2008, 05:21 PM   #2
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Depends: where do you think copper prices are going to go? Its a little more complicated than that, but essentially FCX is a bet on copper prices. I looked at TC for a while and realized that I have no insight into the molybdenum market and I might as well look at steel producers if I wanted something similar but transparent.
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Old 11-20-2008, 05:35 PM   #3
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Back when I younger and had more hair - PCU. Decades back when thrills and chills gave you anywhere between 0 and 13% yield.

No guts, no glory. Although Vegas is quicker.

Also experimented with the back door (Asarco) which carried then Peru Copper stock on it's books.

If things get much hairier we'll be back to the 70's and 80's only this time it's different.

Back then also had a Putnam closed end foriegn bond fund yielding 14%.

heh heh heh - I need to calm down - I've lost more chasing yield over 40 years than I care to remember. "Copper = the Phd of inflation."

BTW my duplex in New Orleans built circa 1967 had AL wiring - made for some interesting interfaces over the years we owned it.
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Old 11-20-2008, 05:43 PM   #4
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If things get much hairier we'll be back to the 70's and 80's only this time it's different.
Think I would prefer the 80s clothes and hair to the 70s. Then again, I have lost enough hair that I am starting to assemble a hat collection rather than worry about how what is left of it will be styled.
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Old 11-20-2008, 07:33 PM   #5
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Think I would prefer the 80s clothes and hair to the 70s. Then again, I have lost enough hair that I am starting to assemble a hat collection rather than worry about how what is left of it will be styled.
No way! Polyester pants, high heeled shoes, and Flock of Seagulls hair over jeans, t-shirts, and long hair? Although I could have done without the bell bottoms. I'm talking early-mid 70's, not the disco stuff in the late 70's early 80s. That was an aberration that should never have been allowed. It was the cocaine that did it.
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Old 11-27-2008, 04:46 AM   #6
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25% gain in 6 days.

No guts, no glory.

I wish I had taken my own advice!
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Old 12-03-2008, 09:28 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by Hal3 View Post
It is down to only 15% of where it was a few months ago.
PE 3, etc, etc, The numbers make it look like a steal.

Any takers?

Hal, you might want to be a "taker." The stock is around $18.05 today. Your were considering buying it at $17.60. You now have a second chance at it.
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Old 12-04-2008, 07:09 AM   #8
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CNBC reported this morning they are cutting the dividend, capital investments, etc. just shoot this dog until the next bout of inflation
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Old 12-05-2008, 08:36 AM   #9
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CNBC reported this morning they are cutting the dividend, capital investments, etc. just shoot this dog until the next bout of inflation
Maybe so. But to quote Warren Buffett -- if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.
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Old 12-05-2008, 09:32 AM   #10
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and you can also lose 50% of your investment, this baby was trading at $8 back in 2000/2001

for all you chart people my guess is this has a topside target of $40 sometime next year and maybe $14 - $15 downside risk from here. over the last two months the downside volume has fallen by a lot which means the selling is almost over
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Old 12-05-2008, 09:34 AM   #11
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and you can also lose 50% of your investment
That's pretty much true of the whole market right now. Are we near a bottom or is there are lot more pain left on the downside?

We don't know except in hindsight. And by the time the answer is clear, it's too late if we've made the wrong bet.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

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Old 12-06-2008, 09:45 AM   #12
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The real question with FCX is whether they can survive until copper prices go higher. At the current price, they will burn cash.

I don't have any insight into copper prices. We may have low prices for years (decades?), or they could shoot up strong next year.

I'm leary of investing money in a company that will not survive if current conditions go on for several years.

FCX will be in trouble 3 years from now if copper prices have not gone up by then.
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Old 12-07-2008, 06:22 PM   #13
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FCX is an absolute bargain at this price range. If you study the reports out there note that FCX will mine into higher grade copper and gold reserves in its Grasberg Mine next year. It has slowed down its lower grade mines where the incremental production cost are highest. Very well run mining concern. This stock sector was one of the casualties of the hedge funds playing with over-leverged positions and having to sell their best holdings to liquidate their redemntions. FCX at 16 is below the intrinsic value of its assets. You can justify 16 a share on FCX projected gold production alone, and you get a world class copper play for next to nothing.

This is the type of stock purchase, along with other basic industry plays like Mosiac and US Steel that I am buying these days as a long term holding position. Forget about high tech or other sectors. We all use this stuff. Just try to run any modern economy without metals or agrichemicals!

(This is my opinion only, not investment advice. Do your own due dilligence before you invest!)
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Old 12-07-2008, 07:45 PM   #14
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No. CANCELLED dividend, cut production. Wait till commodity prices stabilize..........
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Old 12-08-2008, 09:17 AM   #15
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It would be great if one could predict when the market stabilizes, but by the time everyone thinks its safe to return to the market most sectors will have already have made the majority of their run up.

I buy into the risk since that is when the rewards are best.
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