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Is it too late to buy AAPL?
Old 03-15-2015, 02:58 PM   #1
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Is it too late to buy AAPL?

I've been more of an index investor but it's hard watching AAPL (vs. VTI) continue to climb even after the split.

Is it too late to buy say $20k-30k worth? I'm ok with buying and holding for 3,5 or even 10yrs.
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Old 03-15-2015, 03:14 PM   #2
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If you're an index investor, you probably already own a big chunk of AAPL. A lot of index and blended stock/bond funds own AAPL.
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Old 03-15-2015, 03:23 PM   #3
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It pays a semi-reasonable dividend too.
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Old 03-15-2015, 03:29 PM   #4
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I could be wrong(wouldn't be the first time) but I think if you're willing to hold long term, AAPL is a very good investment. I expect it to beat the index over the next 10 years which is why I bought it late last year. AAPL accounts for over 5% of my overall portfolio. Probably too high but it's worked well so far.
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Old 03-15-2015, 03:40 PM   #5
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It appears to be fairly priced at present Price Ratios and Valuation for Apple Inc (AAPL) from Morningstar.com. But who knows how they'll do in their market segments, or which ones they might successfully enter, in the long term. Not that I'd get against them but have they had a Jobs magnitude hit since he passed away? Will they? Will others? Tech stocks can be like hitting a fast ball, might have a home run, might get beaned... FWIW

Hard to believe they could grow anything like they have on the past.
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Old 03-15-2015, 04:03 PM   #6
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I have a modest holding but it's hard to see them doing better than they did.

iPhone sales drive the company's financials now. iPad and Mac are side businesses. This past quarter saw record iPhone sales because of pent-up demand for large screen phones.

They enjoy the highest ASP for phones. Samsung and other brands are nominally the same MSRP but there are more frequent promotions, like $99 or 0 down for new contracts instead of $199 or $299 that they usually charge for high-end phones.

The general view is that they can't continue to grow without another big blockbuster product, which is why they're rolling the Apple Watch out and there are rumors of something with TVs and possibly a car.

Of course, some like Icahn keeps beating the drums for AAPL being worth $200 a share, if they do the buybacks at the rate he wants, which would use up more of the huge cash hoard.

I get a nice dividend every quarter but imagine if the yield was like 2% compared to well under 1% now.
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Old 03-15-2015, 04:20 PM   #7
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I would not buy it. Indeed too late.
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Old 03-15-2015, 04:27 PM   #8
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I get a nice dividend every quarter but imagine if the yield was like 2% compared to well under 1% now.
The annual yield is now around 1.5%. It's $1.88/share or $.47/share quarterly. When they declare the next dividend in mid-late April I expect that it will go up to at least $.50/share quarterly and maybe even as high as $.52. That would raise the dividend to almost 1.7% at current value. Not really high but it should grow faster than the average.
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Old 03-15-2015, 05:20 PM   #9
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We love our ipads and iphones but would not buy into apple stock as a few said..index funds hold it and with it's placement it should be decent. Google is one I love and with its investements in wind and solar just have to love it.
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Old 03-15-2015, 05:26 PM   #10
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Apple invests a lot in solar too, for its data centers.

I own some GOOG too but in recent quarters, Wall Street is recommending Facebook over GOOG because supposedly they get better yields on ads on mobile devices.

Own some FB as well.
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Old 03-15-2015, 06:29 PM   #11
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Seems to me that those who own it will encourage you to buy it to raise the price.

But as already mentioned, it's a significant holding in a lot of mutual funds.
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Old 03-15-2015, 07:25 PM   #12
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Seems to me that those who own it will encourage you to buy it to raise the price.

But as already mentioned, it's a significant holding in a lot of mutual funds.
That's a good thought, but seeing it trades millions of shares per day, someone buying a few hundred or thousand shares won't move the needle.
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Old 03-15-2015, 09:10 PM   #13
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AAPL is up something like 13% since last year, add in the split and people made 50%+ on their investment. No index or mutual fund (perhaps no other equity even) will give you that. Granted it's probably a missed opportunity at this point and won't repeat itself anytime soon, if ever.
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Old 03-16-2015, 10:39 AM   #14
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I spent (on a lark) $10k on AAPL when it was approx $11/share, being an original MAC user and getting a feeling that portable digital music might fare as well as the Walkman. I still hold that stock.

But what do I know?

I'm here to learn.


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Old 03-16-2015, 01:53 PM   #15
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I bought my first AAPL back in late 2000 after the initial crash for a split adjusted $1.05. Have bought and sold more at various times since then, but still have some of those early shares. I've been selling more since ER last year, taking advantage of 0% LTCG. I still think it's a good stock to own, but due to its gains, it had grown to almost 25% of our portfolio (not counting what's held in our funds). Otherwise, I might still have been looking to buy on a dip.

Thanks Apple for helping make ER possible.
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Old 03-16-2015, 01:59 PM   #16
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I initially bought in at something like $88.60 per share in early 2005. Then it did a 2:1 split soon thereafter. I remember buying some more in the high $30 range. And then, as it would rise and fall, I'd buy and sell a bit more here and there.

In retrospect, I probably should have put everything I had on Apple back then, and just left it alone, but hindsight is always 20/20. And I know I would've been sweating bullets in 2008, when it went from just over $200/sh down to around $100. But, I lost half of everything during that plunge, anyway...
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Old 03-16-2015, 02:04 PM   #17
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What is this 0% LTCG?
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Old 03-16-2015, 02:23 PM   #18
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What is this 0% LTCG?
If your normal income for a given tax year would be in the 10 or 15% bracket, your LT capital gains would be zero. Common with a lot of retirees. Once you creep into the 25% and higher brackets though, the LTCG rate is 15% for that portion of your LTCGs that fall into that bracket.

The 25% bracket kicks in at $37,450 for single tax payers, $74,900 for a married couple.
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Old 03-16-2015, 03:50 PM   #19
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If your total income is within the 15% tax bracket you pay no long-term capital gains. Once your total income (including the long-term capital gains) exceeds the 15% tax bracket you will pay long-term capital gains only on the portion of the capital gains that exceed the 15% bracket.
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Old 03-16-2015, 05:14 PM   #20
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Congrats gentleman because some of you really made some big buck on AAPL.

Having said that I would rather buy PG, PEP or CL if I wanted to buy individual stock today. (which is highly unlikely since I would put money into index fund instead)

I did not make as much in PG, PEP or CL but I am convinced those companies will outlast High Tech AAPL. This is what my career of 30 years in Software design tells me.

BTW I bought AAPL for 1400 USD and sold for 48k USD...If I waited I would have 168k. You win some you loose some.
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