Is Microsoft a buy now?

Fermion

Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Joined
Sep 12, 2012
Messages
6,023
Location
Seattle
Does having the CEO leave justify a 9% increase in stock price?

Will everyone run out next week and buy a windows phone instead of a Android or Apple?

Is windows 8 really not *that* bad?

What do you think?
 
I run windows 8 and have a windows phone that I have because I ignored what a bad persona Balmer exhibited. One could surmise that without an obvious idiot at the top (just an quiet one like the other corporations) that Microsoft will do better as an investment. But Microsoft has to get a positive buzz about the windows phone. It really is good, better than my former androids.
 
Buy? We were going to unload the entirety of our MSFT stock Monday morning. I'd love to hear arguments that would convince us not to do so.
 
Buy? We were going to unload the entirety of our MSFT stock Monday morning. I'd love to hear arguments that would convince us not to do so.

I originally bought mine in 2008 @ 31, and sold it about 5 weeks ago @ 35.25. Was a little nervous about long-term growth prospects. It wasn't the easiest decision, given it's dividend yield, and I know its software base will be a huge cash cow (even if stagnant) for many years to come.

Perhaps my biggest concern was the potential destroying of shareholder value by management with all of that cash, and the potential of bad acquisitions, rather than smartly managing the existing cash flow and prudent growth.

In the end, it was having other investment opportunities to deploy the money elsewhere (looking to constantly increase my foreign holdings, especially emerging markets).
 
Buy? We were going to unload the entirety of our MSFT stock Monday morning. I'd love to hear arguments that would convince us not to do so.

Yes, the OP post confuses me. The stock rises 9% and now he asks if it is a good time to buy?

I'd say it was a good time a few days ago, and probably a good time to sell now. Coulda, shoulda, woulda.

But it seems the OP is using satire with the other comments, but the title confuses things for me.

MSFT total return has pretty consistently under-performed SPY over the past 12 years or so. That's a big ship for a new CEO to turn around. Ballmer always struck me as being a detriment to MSFT, but I'd say it is a real gamble to expect the right person to get in and change that.


PerfCharts - StockCharts.com - Free Charts


Do you feel lucky? Well do ya?

-ERD50
 
Sorry, was being a little sarcastic. Usually when a CEO leaves the stock goes down until we see who the new CEO will be. For all we know it could be Elop.

I did buy 50 Oct $35 puts during the day Friday but sold half of them when it dropped down to $34 for a 20% profit.

I don't think a CEO leaving fixes all the problems, but the market is very fickle so who knows. It is a small fun gamble for me. I might be a buyer for the divvy if it drops back under $30.
 
Microsoft has overflowing coffers. In the right CEO's hands, that could be used to start the next tech revolution. Will the right CEO be found?
 
Sorry, was being a little sarcastic. Usually when a CEO leaves the stock goes down until we see who the new CEO will be. For all we know it could be Elop. ...

What a legacy for a CEO - stock goes up 9% on the day he announces he has plans to step down, and nothing else really moving the stock that day!

Go back and listen to some interviews where he hypes the Zune and puts down Apple's approach - he deserves his legacy, IMO. But I don't know enough to gamble on any future moves, up, down or sideways - have fun!

-ERD50
 
I bought the stock at $24. I have no plan to buy more or sell any of it at this point. The CEO leaving is a positive IMO, but I think that the pop in stock price is temporary.
 
I bought the stock at $24. I have no plan to buy more or sell any of it at this point. The CEO leaving is a positive IMO, but I think that the pop in stock price is temporary.


Tend to agree, it will be forgotten by most in 30 days. Then back to fundamentals.

MRG
 
I sold the remaining 25 puts today for about 74% profit. A fun little trade based on the over-enthusiasm of others. Random luck though.
 
I sold the remaining 25 puts today for about 74% profit. A fun little trade based on the over-enthusiasm of others. Random luck though.

Wow did I make a mistake or what? Left over 100% on the table based on today's acquisition of Nokia and price drop of Microsoft. Sigh.

This is why you should index...unpredictable markets.
 
There is a fascinating article that was written a week or two ago that discussed whether Ballmer has been a failure as MSFT CEO or not. It brings up some very good points. Most people forget that MSFT was the FIRST company to come out with many of the products that APPL made billions of on. Basically, MSFT had the first iPod, Ipad, etc, but it never caught on. They were not as user-friendly as the AAPL products so they died, like the Zune. This is a big step for MSFT. The Lumina is a better phone that Android or Iphone, but still behind Samsung Galazy series..........:)
 
There is a fascinating article that was written a week or two ago that discussed whether Ballmer has been a failure as MSFT CEO or not. It brings up some very good points. Most people forget that MSFT was the FIRST company to come out with many of the products that APPL made billions of on. Basically, MSFT had the first iPod, Ipad, etc, ....

First iPod, really? Apple certainly wasn't first with a digital portable player, there were quite a few out before them, but I don't think MS had anything out, even through other companies until long after Apple did.

Balmer said no one would buy an iPhone, it doesn't have a keyboard.

-ERD50
 

I love my Nokia Lumia. It is easy to use, never crashes or seizes up, and the windows 8 OS is very nice. Before this I had a Samsung galaxy running android, and it crashed all the time, and android seemed like just an extension of the old windows 7 interface. before that I had two HTC running the old windows 5 to 7 interfaces, and before that I had Palm PDA devices. It's well known in technology that the best product does not always win the completion (eg. word perfect and lotus 1-2-3), so I hope the lumia phone does not go that route.
 
Nokia was about to go bankrupt and Microsoft had to buy them so that there was a phone to run their mobile OS. It looks like a desperate move to me and they'll sink a load of money onto it to try to buy market share. I hear the Noika Windows phones are good......they just aren't cool.
 
Windows phones are good......they just aren't cool.

Are you saying these guys aren't using the coolest phone?

325568d1285728057-wruw-steve-mcgarrett-hawaii-five-o-snapshot20100928213647.jpg


newshows_ncis_la15.jpg
 
I don't understand why you'd want to buy a dinosaur of a stock like Microsoft. Wouldn't you rather be owning the next Microsoft? Over the past 10 years Microsoft has struggled to even keep pace with the S&P 500, so why would you put money in that single stock in hopes of what "might happen"?

If its technology you want, look at the new race horses in the game, which include companies like Salesforce (CRM) and Tableau (DATA). These companies are game changers and could provide much more growth over the next 5-10 years. If you're undecided, then simply buy a technology exchange traded fund (ETF).
 
Microsoft is at a crossroads currently. I was in a "hate hate" relationship for 25 years with them as a former senior leader in technology at a MegaCorp. Here is my assessment, the good, the bad and the ugly:

First, the Good:
1. Office 365: They have changed their licensing model for consumers and companies alike and they are presently ingesting data center after data center of email, office files and their Lync software (audio, video, meeting collaboration) is actually the best in the business right now. O365 is actually a juggernaut as it is a complete solution vs the likes of Google Drive. I use and love Drive, but it is just not coroporate or consumer friendly. Also, Skydrive integration works quite well.
2. CEO Change: Ballmer needed to go, his smart-alek ways and bullying mentality just don't work. I actually challenged him personally at an IT event where I asked him for a refund of a few million dollars for a failed software assurance contract. Of course he laughed it off (like he did everything), but the fact that he is gone is great.
3. Balance Sheet: As another poster stated, they have a boatload of money.
4. Win 8: I am going to list Windows 8 as both a good and a bad. The great part of Windows 8 is the fact that it is a very good O.S. under the covers. It is "instant on". I had stated several years ago to a msft exec that in order for them to be relevant again, they needed an O.S. that was instant on in order to be considered relevant again. They have this now. The key to Windows 8 experience is turning off the tile interface. There is a company that makes a "shell" program that you can download and have a wonderful PC experience complete with the start button in about 5 minutes.

The bad:
1. Mobile: I like the Lumia experience, but I think they started too late and are too far behind. Getting an entrenched iPhone user to come across is difficult. Also, I am concerned about the durability of the Lumia devices, the metrics I saw were that the failure rates were actually quite high.
2. Arrogance: Msft is still arrogant. Windows 8 is a great example. They have always felt that they have the right to completely change the interface for how their software works with no regard to the learning cirve they impose upon people. The office experience is another example. They completely changed how their office products worked when Office 2007 came out. MegaCorps spent millions in retraining. I am hoping with Ballmer gone, that they actually listen. As my grandmother told me, "God gave us 2 ears and 1 mouth for a reason"
3. O365 experience on Android and iPhone: This is their key to survival and they are playing way too many games with this. IMHO, they should have released the Office 365 experience simultaneously on iphone, android and the lumia phones. The software is awesome and it works well on Lumia. For example, Office apps work with full edit, Sky Drive data syncs across all your devices so you dont have to play the "where is my file?" game any longer, and sharepoint and Lync make working together as teams globally effective. I view MSFT a but like I view OnStar 20 years ago (I had a conversation recently with some of the original OnStar folks). OnStar had an opportunity 20 years ago to extend their product through licensing agreements to other vehicles, but chose not to. They paid the price because GM wanted the technology captive in order to try to sell more GM cars. MSFT is in the same position. Their O365 cloud experience is where they need to focus and get out of the device game.

Also, they need to abandon the tile interface as it is a failure. Their latest releases of Windows 8 make it easier to turn it off, but they should just get over themselves and actually listen to their customer base before inflicting them with stuff they think is better.

One last point about Office 365. The software is quit economical now, especially for families. You can download 5 copies of the full suite for $99.00 annually, which is perfect for my family. We love Skydrive, Outllook is a great email program and of course their document suite works well. They finally got out of the CD business. If they can truly mobilize this experience across the mobile segment, they will retain this crown jewel and stay relevant in the world of cloud, which is where the future lies.

Scott
 
Back
Top Bottom