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Is Microsoft a buy now?
Old 08-23-2013, 06:19 PM   #1
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Is Microsoft a buy now?

Does having the CEO leave justify a 9% increase in stock price?

Will everyone run out next week and buy a windows phone instead of a Android or Apple?

Is windows 8 really not *that* bad?

What do you think?
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Old 08-23-2013, 06:26 PM   #2
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I run windows 8 and have a windows phone that I have because I ignored what a bad persona Balmer exhibited. One could surmise that without an obvious idiot at the top (just an quiet one like the other corporations) that Microsoft will do better as an investment. But Microsoft has to get a positive buzz about the windows phone. It really is good, better than my former androids.
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Old 08-24-2013, 06:24 AM   #3
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Buy? We were going to unload the entirety of our MSFT stock Monday morning. I'd love to hear arguments that would convince us not to do so.
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Old 08-24-2013, 09:34 AM   #4
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Buy? We were going to unload the entirety of our MSFT stock Monday morning. I'd love to hear arguments that would convince us not to do so.
I originally bought mine in 2008 @ 31, and sold it about 5 weeks ago @ 35.25. Was a little nervous about long-term growth prospects. It wasn't the easiest decision, given it's dividend yield, and I know its software base will be a huge cash cow (even if stagnant) for many years to come.

Perhaps my biggest concern was the potential destroying of shareholder value by management with all of that cash, and the potential of bad acquisitions, rather than smartly managing the existing cash flow and prudent growth.

In the end, it was having other investment opportunities to deploy the money elsewhere (looking to constantly increase my foreign holdings, especially emerging markets).
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Old 08-24-2013, 09:38 AM   #5
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Buy? We were going to unload the entirety of our MSFT stock Monday morning. I'd love to hear arguments that would convince us not to do so.
Yes, the OP post confuses me. The stock rises 9% and now he asks if it is a good time to buy?

I'd say it was a good time a few days ago, and probably a good time to sell now. Coulda, shoulda, woulda.

But it seems the OP is using satire with the other comments, but the title confuses things for me.

MSFT total return has pretty consistently under-performed SPY over the past 12 years or so. That's a big ship for a new CEO to turn around. Ballmer always struck me as being a detriment to MSFT, but I'd say it is a real gamble to expect the right person to get in and change that.


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Old 08-24-2013, 09:48 AM   #6
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Sorry, was being a little sarcastic. Usually when a CEO leaves the stock goes down until we see who the new CEO will be. For all we know it could be Elop.

I did buy 50 Oct $35 puts during the day Friday but sold half of them when it dropped down to $34 for a 20% profit.

I don't think a CEO leaving fixes all the problems, but the market is very fickle so who knows. It is a small fun gamble for me. I might be a buyer for the divvy if it drops back under $30.
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Old 08-24-2013, 11:41 AM   #7
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Microsoft has overflowing coffers. In the right CEO's hands, that could be used to start the next tech revolution. Will the right CEO be found?
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Old 08-24-2013, 12:28 PM   #8
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Sorry, was being a little sarcastic. Usually when a CEO leaves the stock goes down until we see who the new CEO will be. For all we know it could be Elop. ...
What a legacy for a CEO - stock goes up 9% on the day he announces he has plans to step down, and nothing else really moving the stock that day!

Go back and listen to some interviews where he hypes the Zune and puts down Apple's approach - he deserves his legacy, IMO. But I don't know enough to gamble on any future moves, up, down or sideways - have fun!

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Old 08-24-2013, 12:55 PM   #9
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I bought the stock at $24. I have no plan to buy more or sell any of it at this point. The CEO leaving is a positive IMO, but I think that the pop in stock price is temporary.
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Old 08-27-2013, 01:53 PM   #10
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I bought the stock at $24. I have no plan to buy more or sell any of it at this point. The CEO leaving is a positive IMO, but I think that the pop in stock price is temporary.

Tend to agree, it will be forgotten by most in 30 days. Then back to fundamentals.

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Old 08-27-2013, 05:18 PM   #11
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I sold the remaining 25 puts today for about 74% profit. A fun little trade based on the over-enthusiasm of others. Random luck though.
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Old 09-03-2013, 08:07 AM   #12
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I sold the remaining 25 puts today for about 74% profit. A fun little trade based on the over-enthusiasm of others. Random luck though.
Wow did I make a mistake or what? Left over 100% on the table based on today's acquisition of Nokia and price drop of Microsoft. Sigh.

This is why you should index...unpredictable markets.
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Old 09-04-2013, 09:33 AM   #13
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There is a fascinating article that was written a week or two ago that discussed whether Ballmer has been a failure as MSFT CEO or not. It brings up some very good points. Most people forget that MSFT was the FIRST company to come out with many of the products that APPL made billions of on. Basically, MSFT had the first iPod, Ipad, etc, but it never caught on. They were not as user-friendly as the AAPL products so they died, like the Zune. This is a big step for MSFT. The Lumina is a better phone that Android or Iphone, but still behind Samsung Galazy series..........
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Old 09-04-2013, 11:26 AM   #14
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What is a Lumina?
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Old 09-04-2013, 12:23 PM   #15
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Nokia Lumia - Powered by Windows Phone 8 - Nokia
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Old 09-04-2013, 12:36 PM   #16
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I know what a Lumia is.
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Old 09-04-2013, 12:55 PM   #17
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There is a fascinating article that was written a week or two ago that discussed whether Ballmer has been a failure as MSFT CEO or not. It brings up some very good points. Most people forget that MSFT was the FIRST company to come out with many of the products that APPL made billions of on. Basically, MSFT had the first iPod, Ipad, etc, ....
First iPod, really? Apple certainly wasn't first with a digital portable player, there were quite a few out before them, but I don't think MS had anything out, even through other companies until long after Apple did.

Balmer said no one would buy an iPhone, it doesn't have a keyboard.

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Old 09-04-2013, 08:00 PM   #18
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I love my Nokia Lumia. It is easy to use, never crashes or seizes up, and the windows 8 OS is very nice. Before this I had a Samsung galaxy running android, and it crashed all the time, and android seemed like just an extension of the old windows 7 interface. before that I had two HTC running the old windows 5 to 7 interfaces, and before that I had Palm PDA devices. It's well known in technology that the best product does not always win the completion (eg. word perfect and lotus 1-2-3), so I hope the lumia phone does not go that route.
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Old 09-04-2013, 09:02 PM   #19
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Nokia was about to go bankrupt and Microsoft had to buy them so that there was a phone to run their mobile OS. It looks like a desperate move to me and they'll sink a load of money onto it to try to buy market share. I hear the Noika Windows phones are good......they just aren't cool.
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Old 09-05-2013, 03:05 AM   #20
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Windows phones are good......they just aren't cool.
Are you saying these guys aren't using the coolest phone?



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