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Old 03-29-2010, 09:48 PM   #21
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Squawk Box in the morning's experts say no double dip in 2010. May have that slide down in 2011, tho. More fun times ahead, kids!
Oh - don't listen to anyone on CNBC's Squawk Box - it's the worst for sensible predictions! The same goes for any kind of investing advice.

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Old 03-30-2010, 06:02 AM   #22
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We are not going to have a double dip recession. Roubini was wrong, plain and simple. He had his 15 minutes of fame.

In fact, I read the other day that we have never had a double dip recession. Many think the two back to back recessions of the early 80's were a double dip but the article I read said there were several quarters of growth in between so it wasn't really a double dip, just two recessions in close proximity. I guess a true double dip remains a concept to keep people on the sidelines while we make money in equities.
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Old 03-30-2010, 06:35 AM   #23
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The bear market for bonds may be underway...

TIPS sure have been taking a beating lately...

Maybe time to start slowly averaging in...
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Old 03-30-2010, 07:05 AM   #24
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Congress is not done destroying the middle class. Be patient.
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Old 03-30-2010, 08:01 AM   #25
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We are not going to have a double dip recession. Roubini was wrong, plain and simple. He had his 15 minutes of fame.
I agree with you; he's been saying the "chicken little" phrase for two long. Of course, that's only my opinion - which dosen't count for much .

I did see an interesting article on M* this morning, concerning the lack of confidence in the current "recovery" (if you believe there is one).

For your reading enjoyment:

The Recovery That No One Wants to Believe In
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Old 03-30-2010, 09:27 AM   #26
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Squawk Box in the morning's experts say no double dip in 2010. May have that slide down in 2011, tho. More fun times ahead, kids!
So the crash & hyperinflation that was supposed to come in 2009, and then in 2010 has again been rescheduled for 2011?

I guess eventually they might be right.
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Old 03-30-2010, 09:30 AM   #27
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It is the sale of the mortgage backed securities that has me worried.
Some good news on this front too . . .

Cheap Mortgages May Last as Investors Take Over When Fed Leaves
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Old 03-30-2010, 09:36 AM   #28
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Misguided or not, I'm hoping all this confidence I'm hearing will keep the ball rolling.
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Old 03-30-2010, 10:08 AM   #29
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So the crash & hyperinflation that was supposed to come in 2009, and then in 2010 has again been rescheduled for 2011?

I guess eventually they might be right.
That's the thing about being a permabear.

No matter how many times you're wrong about the market and the economy going into the tank, eventually you'll be right and people will think you're a genius.
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Old 03-30-2010, 01:34 PM   #30
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That's the thing about being a permabear.

No matter how many times you're wrong about the market and the economy going into the tank, eventually you'll be right and people will think you're a genius.
Yeah. Sort of like a stopped clock is right twice a day.
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Old 03-30-2010, 02:44 PM   #31
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I wouldn't say Roubini is completely wrong. I think he underestimates what the Fed can or will do to save an illogical economic model. As illogical as it seems, I hope they can continue to print our way to prosperity...my pension depends on it.
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Old 03-30-2010, 03:56 PM   #32
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I wouldn't say Roubini is completely wrong. I think he underestimates what the Fed can or will do to save an illogical economic model. As illogical as it seems, I hope they can continue to print our way to prosperity...my pension depends on it.
I'd say he was pretty wrong, at least in gauging the recovery.
  • He said all of the major banks were bankrupt and would need to be nationalized.
  • In March 2009 he famously predicted the stock market was experiencing a sucker's rally
  • In July 2009 he said we wouldn't have growth before the end of the year, but we had 2.2% 3rd quarter growth and 5.6% 4th quarter growth.
  • In July he also said he expects U.S. growth to average 1% per-year for the "next couple of years". Which looks way too low now.
  • In July 2009 he projected the unemployment rate to be 11% by "year end".
  • As late as November 2009 he said job losses would continue at least through 2010 and was still calling for an unemployment rate of 11%.
  • In late November he was predicting declining Holiday Sales, but we ended up 1.1%
  • This month he was calling for a "U shaped recovery, at best" and a likely double dip recession.
Some of this still needs to be tested, but some of it is already known. What is known reflects an entire year of being wrong, on just about everything. It sure looks to me like he doubled down on "Doctor Doom" and went bust.
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Old 03-30-2010, 05:39 PM   #33
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  • He said all of the major banks were bankrupt and would need to be nationalized.
  • In March 2009 he famously predicted the stock market was experiencing a sucker's rally
  • In July 2009 he said we wouldn't have growth before the end of the year, but we had 2.2% 3rd quarter growth and 5.6% 4th quarter growth.
  • In July he also said he expects U.S. growth to average 1% per-year for the "next couple of years". Which looks way too low now.
  • In July 2009 he projected the unemployment rate to be 11% by "year end".
  • As late as November 2009 he said job losses would continue at least through 2010 and was still calling for an unemployment rate of 11%.
  • In late November he was predicting declining Holiday Sales, but we ended up 1.1%
  • This month he was calling for a "U shaped recovery, at best" and a likely double dip recession.
Like I said, he underestimated the Fed. Would any of this stuff you posted have changed if the Fed didn't act so aggressivly? We'll never know for sure...
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Old 03-30-2010, 05:59 PM   #34
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I guess there might be a case here to be a perma bull and never worry about a recession (of any kind) at all.

If I assume the Fed has unlimited capabilities and by their recent activity assume they will do anything they can to keep house prices up, the market up, big businesses in business, cars selling..... Then there is nothing ever to worry about. Probably no reason for this forum...
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Old 03-30-2010, 07:26 PM   #35
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Like I said, he underestimated the Fed. Would any of this stuff you posted have changed if the Fed didn't act so aggressivly? We'll never know for sure...
It is his job to understand these things. And if one is going to position himself as some kind of oracle, it is entirely appropriate to measure him by his accuracy.
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Old 03-31-2010, 06:23 AM   #36
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I'd also add that the notion that we've somehow just kicked the can down the road isn't entirely accurate. Since 2008 we've corrected a lot, but certainly not all, of the economy's imbalances. Housing prices have corrected. Mortgages have defaulted. Banks have taken billions in writedowns, and raised billions in new capital. The personal savings rate has improved by 4x. A combination of new savings and defaults has resulted in the largest decline in consumer debt since 1945. So while imbalances remain, the pessimists also tend to over look the fact the we are making actual progress in fixing some of the mess.
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Old 04-02-2010, 09:50 AM   #37
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162,000 jobs (mostly private sector jobs) is a start.

Oh, and January & February were revised upward. So instead of losing 62,000 jobs in the first two months we netted no change in jobs. Overall, plus 224,000 jobs relative to where we thought we were in February.
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Old 04-02-2010, 02:32 PM   #38
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162,000 jobs (mostly private sector jobs) is a start.

Oh, and January & February were revised upward. So instead of losing 62,000 jobs in the first two months we netted no change in jobs. Overall, plus 224,000 jobs relative to where we thought we were in February.
And this really good news is released on a day when the markets are closed - go figure!
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Old 04-05-2010, 08:50 AM   #39
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162,000 jobs (mostly private sector jobs) is a start.

Oh, and January & February were revised upward. So instead of losing 62,000 jobs in the first two months we netted no change in jobs. Overall, plus 224,000 jobs relative to where we thought we were in February.
ADP says we lost 23,000 private sector jobs.

48,000 of the jobs created were census workers
40,000 considered temporary
Unemployment unchanged 9.7%
Underemployment rate rose from 16.8 to 16.9%
Discouraged workers giving up looking-308K last year, more that 1 million this year.
We're working for less and working longer hours.

I'm glad the main stream news is painting this so positive and it seems people are buying it. Confidence is one of the biggest driving forces in the economy. I hope it's enough to keep the ball rolling.
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Old 04-05-2010, 09:23 AM   #40
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I'm glad the main stream news is painting this so positive and it seems people are buying it. Confidence is one of the biggest driving forces in the economy. I hope it's enough to keep the ball rolling.
I'd say you're discounting good news far more heavily than the "mainstream media" is discounting bad news. Last January we were shedding 700,000 jobs per month. Now we're adding jobs. Since last January the sequential monthly trend has been unquestionably positive, with almost every month better than the prior one.

How can you look at this chart and conclude the employment picture isn't far, far better than it was?
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