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Old 06-28-2010, 06:27 PM   #101
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I don't think so
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
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Old 06-28-2010, 07:03 PM   #102
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If the next employment data report is bad I'll be throwing in the towel for a while.
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Old 06-28-2010, 07:21 PM   #103
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Now I have to assume the worst, which means missing out on the low stock prices. I hate saving cash at 1% interest when I can buy good stocks with a 3% or higher yield.
I don't understand what you are saying here. If you have a secure job (at least by most standards), and you have money, what requires you to invest in cash? If you feel that stocks are cheap, why not buy them?

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Old 06-28-2010, 07:25 PM   #104
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I'm curious why a 33 year old guy with money in the bank and a good job would move home with his parents. Are they in poor health and in need of your help?
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Old 06-28-2010, 07:32 PM   #105
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I'm curious why a 33 year old guy with money in the bank and a good job would move home with his parents. Are they in poor health and in need of your help?
If I am his parents, I don't understand either.
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Old 06-28-2010, 07:54 PM   #106
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Just out of curiosity, has it been officially determined that the recent (or current) recession ended? I hadn't heard.
It ended early summer of 2009. We have had several quarters of expansion since then, some of them quite strong. It just takes NBER over a year sometimes to announce the official "end". (same with starts too)

Any day now.....

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The December 2007 peak was announced December 1, 2008.
The November 2001 trough was announced July 17, 2003.
The March 2001 peak was announced November 26, 2001.
The March 1991 trough was announced December 22, 1992.
etc... Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
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Old 06-28-2010, 08:20 PM   #107
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I don't understand what you are saying here. If you have a secure job (at least by most standards), and you have money, what requires you to invest in cash? If you feel that stocks are cheap, why not buy them?

Ha
Because I am paranoid...
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Old 06-28-2010, 08:23 PM   #108
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I'm curious why a 33 year old guy with money in the bank and a good job would move home with his parents. Are they in poor health and in need of your help?

No, it would be to sponge off of them rent free. So, I can save more money.

They live in a 5k sqft house and don't really use the top two floors. So, they probably wouldn't care if I stayed in a guest room.
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Old 06-28-2010, 08:27 PM   #109
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No, it would be to sponge off of them rent free. So, I can save more money.

They live in a 5k sqft house and don't really use the top two floors. So, they probably wouldn't care if I stayed in a guest room.
That "probably" word will get ya every time...
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Old 06-28-2010, 11:55 PM   #110
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They live in a 5k sqft house and don't really use the top two floors. So, they probably wouldn't care if I stayed in a guest room.
Speaking as a parent, I'd want to hear the opinion of your parents...

... and of course you'd be offering them market rent, right?
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Old 06-29-2010, 12:09 AM   #111
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Speaking as a parent, I'd want to hear the opinion of your parents...

... and of course you'd be offering them market rent, right?

I'm charging my kid 50% market rent, of course that barely pays for the electricity and gas.
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Old 06-29-2010, 08:20 AM   #112
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Probably positive due to census hiring and housing incentives.
My buddy is the lead census taker at a small county in Calif. He told me they lay off and then rehire workers...which adds credence to the reports by conservative talk this is being done to inflate the number of jobs created. This and manipulation with numbers like how they figure unemployment and GDP. Hidden debt at the Fed and Freddie and Fannie, shadow inventories... Still smells like one big deflationary depression, not a single or double dip recession to me.
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Old 06-29-2010, 08:29 AM   #113
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Pete, I'm beginning to suspect you have a lot of stock in companies who make this:
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Old 06-29-2010, 08:51 AM   #114
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I don't believe anything is being hidden in the employment, unemployment, hours worked, GDP, etc. reports, that wasn't being "hidden" previously. How these statistics are gathered and calculated is well-known, if not by everyday folks, at least by economists...

So, paranoia aside, I figure there is a distribution of outcomes, bounded by deep, dark depression/excessive misery hyperdeflation on one end, and hyperinflation on the other. Calculating the distribution is an exercise left to the reader...
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Old 06-29-2010, 08:53 AM   #115
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My buddy is the lead census taker at a small county in Calif. He told me they lay off and then rehire workers...which adds credence to the reports by conservative talk this is being done to inflate the number of jobs created. This and manipulation with numbers like how they figure unemployment and GDP. Hidden debt at the Fed and Freddie and Fannie, shadow inventories... Still smells like one big deflationary depression, not a single or double dip recession to me.
This could be the case. However, how are census workers paid?
Is it cheaper, overall, for them to keep census workers on the payroll or to lay them off and rehire?
If the are spending less taxpayer money by doing it the way they are, I am all for it!
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Old 06-29-2010, 09:02 AM   #116
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Is it cheaper, overall, for them to keep census workers on the payroll or to lay them off and rehire?
If the are spending less taxpayer money by doing it the way they are, I am all for it!
I'm assuming these jobs have no benefits in that they are temporary, and if that's the case, I don't see why they can't keep someone on the payroll but simply not give them any hours from time to time.

If there's no law against that, the only other thing that makes sense is that they want the "new jobs created" statistic to be misleadingly high.
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Old 06-29-2010, 09:19 AM   #117
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The only issue I have with that is the job data is depressed every time they fire them. It makes no sense to me.
Are there any liabilities to having someone on your payroll even if they work no hours?
If someone is on the payroll for X amount of time, do unemployment benefits kick in once they are fired?
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Old 06-29-2010, 09:21 AM   #118
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Is it cheaper, overall, for them to keep census workers on the payroll or to lay them off and rehire?
If the are spending less taxpayer money by doing it the way they are, I am all for it!
Hiring and firing might or might not have cost savings. What I meant was that laying someone off then rehiring them could be counted as another job created, meaning the 400k jobs claimed to have been created might not actually be true.
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Old 06-29-2010, 09:30 AM   #119
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Hiring and firing might or might not have cost savings. What I meant was that laying someone off then rehiring them could be counted as another job created, meaning the 400k jobs claimed to have been created might not actually be true.
I thought Martha already debunked that claim:

Heading under 10,000 on the way!
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Old 06-29-2010, 09:34 AM   #120
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Actually, was just seeing if I could find out more about this.
Apparently, the census employment levels come from their payroll. Basically, is the paid 100,000 people in a week, they report that. It wouldn't matter if you were hired and fired 20 times, you still get paid once each week.
Cavuto hosts NY Post 's Crudele to advance Census hiring falsehoods | Media Matters for America
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