Is this market like 1932 ?

[papadad111]

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/11/25/why-1937-might-be-a-better-comparison-for-stocks.

Billionaire hedge-fund manager Ray Dalio outlined parallels between 1937 and the current market in a letter in March, listing a series of events that began in the late 1920s that correlate to what’s been happening in the market since the financial crisis. Now, other investors are pointing to the same similarities.

Perhaps just pattern recognition. Perhaps not.

 

[Gone4Good]

Why 2015 Might Be Like 1937 for Stocks - MoneyBeat - WSJ.

Billionaire hedge-fund manager Ray Dalio outlined parallels between 1937 and the current market . . .

I'll read the article but before I do let me just recap the history of this thread you started with the title "is this market like 1932?"

You recently revived the thread by moving the date to 1933. And in your most recent comment its 1937.

But when I said this . . .

Perhaps part of the confusion is that the title of your post should have been "Is this Market Like 1937." That makes more sense to me, . . .

You responded thusly . . .

Well. I did mean 1932.....

So if you're asking whether I see similarities between markets of ever-changing time frames with seemingly arbitrary starting dates I admit that I don't.

I do however see tenuous parallels between now and 1937 but only in that there was fear that the Fed might tighten too aggressively and prematurely cut off recovery this time, as they did then. But last time monetary policy was hugely influenced by a gold standard that no longer exists today. And also the Fed has learned something since then, as evidence by the current go-slow approach and the fact that the Fed waited until unemployment got below 5% to start tightening this time rather than above 14% as it was in 1937.

 

[papadad111]

No need to re-cap. We can all read here. We can also agree to disagree !

No need to get snarky either ..

 

[papadad111]

Why? Why would today's huge, complicated, insanely fast market have any relation whatsoever to the 1930's market?

My premise is that humans have not evolved much in the past 90 years.....20,000 years yes...but not 90 years and so the human element of the market , despite all the technology, interconnectedness, and global growth, is the same and just can not be ignored.

Patterns repeat. Behaviors repeat.

 

[redduck]

No need to get snarky either ..

Even if it's a good snark?

 

[foxfirev5]

Personally I feel a comparison to 1937 may be more appropriate. No charts but just a gut feeling. In 1933 we had just had rug pulled out and were trying for a quick recovery. Now we're a few years into an anemic recovery, maybe we're in good shape. Or, the Fed overreacts combined with many variables and we get hammered again. Anyway the solution after 1937 was pretty ugly.
Now that I've got that negativity out of my system, let's look to the positive...

 

[REWahoo]

Now that I've got that negativity out of my system, let's look to the positive...

Ya mean the fact the apple the guy is selling on the street corner is $1.50, not a nickel? Or the fact he's offering you a choice of Fuji or Gala rather than only Red Delicious?

 

[foxfirev5]

Ya mean the fact the apple the guy is selling on the street corner is $1.50, not a nickel? Or the fact he's offering you a choice of Fuji or Gala rather than only Red Delicious?

Awe yes a fellow apple aficionado. Perhaps that's where a niche market exists for aspiring street vendors .

 

[HFWR]

The lines seem to go from Left to Right?

Haha, Ha!