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Old 08-08-2009, 09:23 AM   #241
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Sure got quiet on this thread!

What? Did everyone decide this rally really was for real? No more discussion needed?

My technical analysis buddies note that all the various 50/200 daily moving averages on various index charts have made definite crossovers on the upside. This is usually a long-term very bullish sign.

Of course, I already rebalanced and thus took some profits - early as usual, but I don't care.

Audrey
I sold a little yesterday. Always hard to do when you think you might be early. I hope the rally continues through the balance of the year and if it does, I will be trimming much more.
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Old 08-08-2009, 11:35 AM   #242
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Rebalanced within my International AA this week, leaving some cash on the side, and earning additional capital losses to carry forward.

Still need to add more to equities and push $ from short term bond to intermediate bond. Will do that on a DCA basis.

-- Rita
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Old 08-08-2009, 11:37 AM   #243
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Still need to add more to equities and push $ from short term bond to intermediate bond. Will do that on a DCA basis.

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In what sense do you need to do these things?

Ha
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Old 08-08-2009, 11:43 AM   #244
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Ha,
Every time I'd rebalance my equities, Mr. Market will make a correction. So, I'm off by about 5% (under). In addition, I had put most bond $ in short-term (too much, in fact), but it let me sleep at night.

With bond yields stabilizing, I feel more comfortable moving short term bond $ to intermediate term in a bond index fund, with additional small amounts going into an emerging market bond fund and high yield bond fund. These last two tend to act more like equities.

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Old 08-08-2009, 12:46 PM   #245
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Sure got quiet on this thread!

What? Did everyone decide this rally really was for real? No more discussion needed?
...
Audrey
Quiet? My earlier post was dated 8/6/09. We only skipped one day. I am telling you, whether you are a trader or a buy-and-holder (I am somewhere in between), it is hard not to watch the tapes. It's down right addictive, and harmless as long as one does not something rash. Good entertainment, though not cheap, and since the dear admision price has been extracted from us, while not watch it?

I don't believe in TA, but if these guys are in a bullish mode, I certainly wouldn't argue with them now.

No, we are all just watching, not wanting to jinx it. About discussions, well we can all pat ourselves on the back for hanging on till now, but what to do next, it appears we have all made up our mind. We are all adults, and stubborn in our own way, but that is OK. Life is boring if we are all alike.

Here's what I have done. I am still bullish and have sold only one stock. I bought it on 6/17, and had made 20% on it when the quarterly report came out two days ago. They projected poor earnings going forward, and the stock dropped 15%. I pulled the trigger, harvested a meager gain, which would have turned into a slight loss if I hung on. After the dust settles, I might buy back or not, depending on the valuation.

About this thread, if we keep adding into it, I hope they would turn it into a "sticky" one, so that when the Dow sets new high again in 2015 or 2020 or whenever, some of us would scream "sell, sell, sell", while others would say "buy, buy, buy", while I would hopefully still be doing what I am doing now: watching my individual stocks, and trimming out the "weedy" ones, and allowing the strong seedlings to grow into large vines bearing juicy fruits and berries.
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Old 08-08-2009, 03:18 PM   #246
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Sure got quiet on this thread!
I'm just watching the waves come into shore, then the next one, and the next one.
I may pick strange times to do nothing (now), and other times to do something minor (1Q09), but it w*rks for me.
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Old 08-08-2009, 03:52 PM   #247
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I'm just watching the waves come into shore, then the next one, and the next one.
May I modify your metaphor by suggesting that we are not spectators on shore, but swimmers in the ocean?

And we just got hit by a tsumani wave, for crying out loud. We all thought we were good surfers, but as it turned out, we were thankful to stay alive and not drowning (knock on wood).
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Old 08-08-2009, 03:53 PM   #248
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It is astonishing how much attitudes have changed in 5 short months.

Ha
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Old 08-08-2009, 03:55 PM   #249
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Until the next wave comes...
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Old 08-08-2009, 03:59 PM   #250
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It is astonishing how much attitudes have changed in 5 short months.

Ha
Not mine, I'm still scared shatless. But it is amazing and I'm glad for it. Maybe the market will continue to go up for awhile as a result. And we can all recoup a little more.
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Old 08-08-2009, 04:31 PM   #251
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May I modify your metaphor by suggesting that we are not spectators on shore, but swimmers in the ocean?

And we just got hit by a tsumani wave, for crying out loud. We all thought we were good surfers, but as it turned out, we were thankful to stay alive and not drowning (knock on wood).
Excellent!
I just hope we never become driftwood.
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Old 08-08-2009, 04:43 PM   #252
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Not mine, I'm still scared shatless. But it is amazing and I'm glad for it. Maybe the market will continue to go up for awhile as a result. And we can all recoup a little more.
I'm still keeping my eyeballs on it, but after recouping some dough, I feel much better. Let it roll...........
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Old 08-08-2009, 09:15 PM   #253
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It is astonishing how much attitudes have changed in 5 short months.

Ha
Not me. I've been selling into the recent rallies and will continue next week if the market is up. I'm maintaining my new allocation per Bogle of 38/62 where your bond allocation equals your age.
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Old 08-09-2009, 06:45 AM   #254
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Quiet? My earlier post was dated 8/6/09. We only skipped one day.
But that one day - 8/7/09 - was truly an extraordinary day in the markets. So I was amazed by the quietude here. I guess everyone was just frozen in awe.

Audrey
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Old 08-09-2009, 08:36 AM   #255
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Some may be froze in awe, and afraid to jinx. Others frozen in fear, afraid they have missed the boat. But it is likely that most are frozen one way or another. Animal spirits reign supreme once again!

Me - I'm happy this is happening and trying to stay focused on the important things in life - enjoying my family and good health.

Wonder where we are here - a graph from this thread funny investor sentiment graph
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Old 08-09-2009, 08:42 AM   #256
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Wonder where we are here - a graph from this thread
I'd say probably either 13, 17 or 18. When we hit 19, it's time to sell.
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Old 08-09-2009, 09:17 AM   #257
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I king of think we are at 16 - What the h#ll? Although, it might be 17. Maybe the question "Is this rally for real?" was really question 16, in which case we might be approaching 17.

Personally I think the graph should go back to repeat 5 and stop there just so that someone doesn't get the impression that all is clear after a big V recovery and really leave folks hanging with an uncertain future (i.e. is it a "dip" or are we about to "fall off a cliff"? - the age old question).

Audrey
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Old 08-09-2009, 12:38 PM   #258
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Here's a graph showing bear market stages according to Bob Farrel's rule #8 that bear markets have 3 stages 1) sharp down 2) reflexive rebound and 3) drawn-out fundamental downtrend. (Farrell was a market strategist at Merrill Lynch from the 60's to the early 90's)

bear+market+stages.png (image)

I got the graph from this site which I don't always agree with but read as an antidote to the mainstream news"green shoots" hyper-optimism.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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Old 08-09-2009, 12:47 PM   #259
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Here's a graph showing bear market stages according to Bob Farrel's rule #8 that bear markets have 3 stages 1) sharp down 2) reflexive rebound and 3) drawn-out fundamental downtrend. (Farrell was a market strategist at Merrill Lynch from the 60's to the early 90's)
It's interesting, but part of the question is whether or not the chart should be looked at as one horrific market from 2007 to early 2009, or if the chart should be looked at as a longer term "double bottom" bear market from 2000 to 2009.

As a corollary, if we want to compare the current market to that of the 1930s (say the chart from 1929 to about 1940), where are we? Is this like 1933, a big snapback after a bottom, only to hit another bear-within-a-bear in 1937? Or was the March 2009 low akin to the 1937 low, where we have a secular bear market double bottom in 2002 and early 2009 as we had in 1932 and 1937 -- making the recent action more like 1938 than 1933? A lot of chartists and Elliott wave types seem to think the March bottom was a lot like the 1937 low and that recent bullish activity is similar to the 1938 stock market recovery.

Personally, I think we're way too deep in this secular bear market cycle (for more than 9 years if indeed we're still in it) for this to be more like 1930 or 1931.

Obviously every market is different, but given how many people have been trotting out the 1930s about this market and this economy, it's interesting to note and ponder. I wouldn't make any investment decisions based on it, obviously.
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Old 08-09-2009, 01:56 PM   #260
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Yes, I agree. This "bear market" started in 2000. It might not end until 2017 - AAAaaaaargh!

Well, whatever - expect continued multi-year rollercoasters for a while.

Audrey
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