Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 08-10-2009, 09:14 AM   #261
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,492
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
I'd say probably either 13, 17 or 18. .
That certainly narrows it down...
__________________

__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 08-10-2009, 10:08 AM   #262
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,533
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Yes, I agree. This "bear market" started in 2000. It might not end until 2017 - AAAaaaaargh!
Music to my ears!!! Bear market until 2017 = 8 more years to invest at low low prices. I think that would do the trick for my portfolio.
__________________

__________________
FUEGO is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2009, 10:26 AM   #263
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,387
The title of this thread is misleading. Of course this rally is real, it has caused the SPX to increase over 50% in less than 6 months.

Better questions are how long will it last? How far will it go? What might come after it stops? Nothing can go up at this rate forever, so this rally will prove limited as to time and size. It doesn't necessarily mean SPX will go back down, though it may.

I tend to believe that once people have been well frightened, their fear can return faster if things start looking dicey than it came in the first instance.

Against that POV is that it does seem that the glue applied during the last many months is having an effect.

My conclusion is that this is not a market for broad brush investing, but more for market timing and/or special situations.

I think with the very heavy fixed income allocations that many here use, it really doesn't matter. In effect they are saying "I don't have enough at risk to sweat it, so I won't."

This seems like a good plan, but it is somewhat undercut by a simultaneous reliance on FireCalc. FireCalc is not fond of high fixed allocations and long withdrawal periods- to say nothing of 2-4% interest rates.

Edited to add an interesting Yahoo interview for your discerning pleasure:

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...%5EDJI,%5EGSPC

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2009, 10:47 AM   #264
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,492
The 8/14 ECRI weekly update

Quote:
Meanwhile, the index's annualized growth rate leapt to a 26-year high of 13.4 percent from last week's five-year high of 10.4 percent, which ECRI originally reported at 10.5 percent.

It was the index's highest yearly growth rate reading since the week to Aug. 26, 1983, when it stood at 13.9 percent.

"With WLI growth surging, the odds are rising that the early stage of this economic recovery will be stronger than any since the early 1980s," said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at ECRI.
ECRI | News | Media Coverage
__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2009, 05:47 PM   #265
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,535
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
The 8/14 ECRI weekly update

ECRI | News | Media Coverage
Hah! MichaelB! Great Minds

I just started this new thread on the Fire and Money forum before reading your post over here! Anyone Else Follow ERCI on the Economy?

Audrey
__________________
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2009, 07:32 AM   #266
Recycles dryer sheets
James5v's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 88
So what do you think of the validity of ECRI's statement? It seems to me the idea of stagflation is much more likely. I continue to be afraid of the large debt of the average American along with the national debt. We have been a credit card economy for a long time and I fear with increasing debt this will no longer fuel a recovery.

But what do I know? I should have invested when the Dow was at 7000.
__________________
James Otis
James5v is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2009, 09:42 AM   #267
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,492
Quote:
Originally Posted by James5v View Post
So what do you think of the validity of ECRI's statement? It seems to me the idea of stagflation is much more likely. I continue to be afraid of the large debt of the average American along with the national debt. We have been a credit card economy for a long time and I fear with increasing debt this will no longer fuel a recovery.

But what do I know? I should have invested when the Dow was at 7000.
ECRI does not make economic forecasts or long term projections, they measure and forecast business cycles turns, relative strength and timing. I have read and followed them for years and had a paid subscription until they closed their retail business.

In the current economic cycle they forecast the recession late '07 or early '08 - easily ahead of the pack - and were both early and correct in forecasting the current upturn.

I have never regretted following their advice but do have misgivings for not doing so.
__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2009, 08:14 PM   #268
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,535
Quote:
Originally Posted by James5v View Post
So what do you think of the validity of ECRI's statement? It seems to me the idea of stagflation is much more likely. I continue to be afraid of the large debt of the average American along with the national debt. We have been a credit card economy for a long time and I fear with increasing debt this will no longer fuel a recovery.

But what do I know? I should have invested when the Dow was at 7000.
What do I think of their validity? Higher than any other predictive model I've seen published - by quite a long shot. Note that they are predicting the economy, not the markets. Their model predictions might not make sense to someone looking at current economic challenges, but obviously their models are seeing other factors that are overcoming these challenges.

On Stagflation - ECRI does point out that the future inflation gauge reached a 51 year low in March. That's pretty significant - the lowest inflation pressures in 51 years!!! It has risen persistently since which ECRI indicates means deflation risks have eased, but is still well below where it was a year ago. Here's what they said most recently about inflation ECRI | News | Media Coverage

Note that the ECRI models really only are able to forecast out 6 months max. So they can't tell you long term trends.

But, I would say ECRI is telling us that the stagflation scenario is not likely in the near term due to both improved economic growth going forward AND inflation still not so bad.

Audrey
__________________
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Is this rally for real?
Old 08-16-2009, 02:23 AM   #269
Confused about dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 3
Is this rally for real?

Rally does not make sense if what you are fighting for is not the issue to be solved. Be a good citizen by following rules and regulation.
__________________
sanjugibbs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2009, 07:22 AM   #270
Recycles dryer sheets
James5v's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 88
If the ECRI is correct on their predictions on the economy then it would appear this would be a good time to move into stocks.

How many of you have decided this information means a higher stock market and have or are moving funds into stocks?
__________________
James Otis
James5v is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2009, 08:05 AM   #271
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Eastern PA
Posts: 3,851
Quote:
Originally Posted by James5v View Post
How many of you have decided this information means a higher stock market and have or are moving funds into stocks?
Being retired, the question I have is do I "cash out" some of my annual gains (while much less in value than Jan 1, 2007, much higher than their purchase price over the last 25+ years).

I normally do my portfolio adjustments in December, after the annual distributions are made. I don't buy into equities (as I did during my work*ing years, but just sell off perceived profits to add to my retirement cash bucket).

While my target for my retirement gross income cash bucket is 3-5 years, it has dropped to a bit over 2 years due to not selling anything the last two years (e.g. I still have all my shares, plus re-invested distributions).

The question is should I sell now, wait till December (to take this year's profits) or possibly wait another year till the market may return and at least show a slight positive return over Jan 1, 2007?

If I look over my 3-5 year fund returns, in many funds I do have a positive return; however my returns since Jan 1, 2008 are negative.

While I have enough income for a couple of more years without selling anything, should I sell since the market is on a bit of a run?

Sometimes, having money is more difficult than not having money, since the game is to retain your assets, rather than build them .

Just another POV...
__________________
rescueme is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2009, 01:37 PM   #272
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,535
Quote:
Originally Posted by James5v View Post
If the ECRI is correct on their predictions on the economy then it would appear this would be a good time to move into stocks.

How many of you have decided this information means a higher stock market and have or are moving funds into stocks?
Another very strong indicator for a higher stock market in the near term - (almost?) all the general equity indices have made very strong 50/200 daily moving average crossovers in recent history with the 200 daily MA finally starting to trend upwards. In the past, this has been a very strong buy signal for market timers.

Me? Well, my model had me rebalancing recently which means that I trimmed some of my stock funds to buy bond funds. Kind of anti-timer I guess!!! However, if the market move up is as strong as all these wild indicators seem to suggest, I may have another opportunity to rebalance before too long.

We shall wait and see........

Audrey
__________________
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-16-2009, 11:58 PM   #273
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 11,044
Quote:
Originally Posted by James5v View Post
If the ECRI is correct on their predictions on the economy then it would appear this would be a good time to move into stocks.

How many of you have decided this information means a higher stock market and have or are moving funds into stocks?
I have always heard that the market moves ahead of the news. So perhaps the huge move up we have seen since March was pushed by the anticipation of a strong early recovery. It might be too late already to move into stocks as the good news might already be priced in. I have rebalanced out of stocks last week to lock in some of the gains of the past 4 months personally. I don't see the market go much higher anytime soon since it will probably take several years before unemployment start to recede, foreclosures stop undercutting the RE market and banks/companies/people finish deleveraging. In hindsight, the best time to move into stocks was probably late 2008 / early 2009 when the markets were pricing in a second great depression.

But who knows?
__________________
FIREd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-17-2009, 07:02 AM   #274
Recycles dryer sheets
James5v's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 88
If I were to get back into stocks, then you can bet that would be a very bearish signal. I want to wait until the Fall and see what happens. I would rather be safe than sorry and I can still see the possibility of a large sell off. But as you say who knows, maybe Jim Crammer (I am joking). Although I do like Erin Burnette
__________________
James Otis
James5v is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2009, 10:19 AM   #275
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,948
Yes, I think this rally is for real. So does the author of this article:

Professionals Are Buying The Stock Market Rally. Are You: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance=

Quote:
Professional money managers are buying into the rally in a big way, according to a Merrill Lynch Survey of Fund Managers :
  • 75% believe the world economy will improve in the next 12 months. That's the highest level in nearly six years and up from 63% in July.
  • Average cash balances have fallen to 3.5%, the lowest since July 2007.
  • 34% of managers surveyed are now overweight stocks, the highest since Oct. 2007.
  • Risk appetite is also increasing, to the highest levels in two years.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2009, 10:31 AM   #276
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
freebird5825's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: East Nowhere, 43N Latitude, NY
Posts: 9,017
Quote:
Originally Posted by Want2retire View Post
Yes, I think this rally is for real. So does the author of this article:

Professionals Are Buying The Stock Market Rally. Are You: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance=
[/list]
Did you by any chance read the comments at the bottom of the page?
Pretty wild stuff.
I have no opinion about the reality of the rally. Just hanging onto the reins for now.
What I do know is as I age, I will migrate towards even more conservative investing. No question in my mind.
__________________
"All our dreams can come true, if we have the courage to pursue them." - Walt Disney
freebird5825 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2009, 11:13 AM   #277
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,948
Yes, the opinions/comments at the bottom were pretty scathing! But the original article cited facts, which were interesting to me. If
Quote:
34% of managers surveyed are now overweight stocks, the highest since Oct. 2007
then I don't think they are just talking through their hat, to their own advantage. Well, at least there's a chance.

On the other hand, THEY may not have a clue as to the direction in which the market is heading, either.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2009, 11:19 AM   #278
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,445
When the market crashed from 14000 to under 7000, people said "It's impossible!".

Now, it has been going up, and of course the reaction is still the same: "No way!".
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2009, 11:29 AM   #279
Moderator Emeritus
CuppaJoe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: At The Cafe
Posts: 6,866
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
....

Now, it has been going up, and of course the reaction is still the same: "No way!".
How can you tell the difference between "going up" and "fluctuating"? In the short term?

Every thing I own was up yesterday. I'd almost think that people have taken yet another flight to safety for seeing my treasuries at high levels.

Wait till next year.
__________________
CuppaJoe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2009, 11:42 AM   #280
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,445
Quote:
Originally Posted by CuppaJoe View Post
How can you tell the difference between "going up" and "fluctuating"? In the short term?
No, I don't know. In my view, the market is always "fluctuating". I try to ignore the daily fluctuations and guesstimate the BIG ones. Ideally, I like to be like Buffett; he rarely sells. But then, he knows what he's doing, while I am just fooling around and have fun.

I own individual equities and in the past have often fallen victim to my own thinking that my stocks are stronger than the rest. At some points in this rally, I will get out some, but not at this point. It depends on how things are unfolding.

I just don't think we are slipping back into the recession. It feels like as time goes by, more and more people think that the worst is over, and this sentiment just feeds on itself. I am talking about the entire world economy, not just the US.
__________________

__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Bear Market Rally? Maurice FIRE and Money 69 05-17-2009 04:33 AM
Tsunami rally? Bring it on! Meadbh FIRE and Money 26 11-30-2008 07:48 AM
Will you sell Equities in a Rally? Bikerdude FIRE and Money 37 11-03-2008 01:13 PM
rally has second leg? semtex FIRE and Money 6 07-22-2008 04:16 PM
So Much For The Fed Pause Rally haha FIRE and Money 29 08-10-2006 06:32 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:24 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.