Is this rally for real?

[Notmuchlonger]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Want2retire Well, then maybe I'm wrong! I don't have a link saying how long most Americans own their homes - - was just looking for one but haven't found it yet.

Actually you are close. According to a yahoo answer Nar study says its 6 years. Surprising to me.

[IndependentlyPoor]

Quote:

Originally Posted by harley I just read in a Money magazine that around a third of all homes with mortgages are worth less than the mortgage, according to First American CoreLogic (whoever they are). That seems nearly impossible to me. Did 1/3 of the nation move in the last five or six years?

I believe it is also true that about 1/3 of all homes are owned outright.
Bubble Meter: Ask Yahoo: How many "homeowners" own their homes outright?

[Zathras]

Although I think the 33% rate is high, however, that probably includes both home buyers and people who refinanced.

[audreyh1]

Where is W2R? I felt sure she would have to something to say about the last two days in the market.

Audrey

[Want2retire]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 Where is W2R? I felt sure she would have to something to say about the last two days in the market. Audrey

Too busy counting my money! $$$$

[harley]

I am absolutely blown away by the gains in the market over the last few months. I know the market is irrational short term, but I can't imagine how people are assuming things are back on track. Insider selling, high unemployment, an incredibly weak dollar, and I even saw that there has been a drop in the personal saving rate! I try not to be a DMT, but it's awfully hard to be heading to the next DCA date while suspecting we're in for a significant drop. Damn TV anyway!

[simple girl]

We don't want to be DMTer's either, but we want to invest in a fund that has a $10K min investment. We've been sitting with it, ready to buy, for several weeks now. I'm torn between enjoying seeing our investments go up vs. wanting the market to dip (I know, hush) so we feel better about dropping in our $10K.

Typical investor I guess <sigh>. Shouldn't try to time the market!

[mf15]

Don't worry Mr. Market likes to inflict maximum pain.
It will suck in all who will go, then at some point the boy's will drop it like a rock.

Old Mike

[audreyh1]

Well as of today my retirement portfolio is only down 13.7% from its peak value in Oct 2007, whereas in March it was down 40% from peak. That seems like a pretty amazing recovery!

I was just thinking today that when I get to being only 10% down, I'm going to really celebrate, because that peak value was really a peak!

There!!! I just jinxed the rally for whoever is trying to get back in on a pull-back!

Audrey

[Want2retire]

In early 2008, I made a retirement plan based on what I thought would be the value of my portfolio. In late 2008, I revised that downwards as it looked like I would have no more than half. Now, it is back to essentially what I had originally planned. What a roller coaster we have been on!

I am glad (now) that we have experienced the recession, because I saw what it did to my portfolio and what my reactions were. I was able to hang tight and knowing that about myself is a huge relief.

If it happens again, I will just hang on for dear life like last time and hopefully make it through.

[FIREdreamer]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 There!!! I just jinxed the rally for whoever is trying to get back in on a pull-back! Audrey

Thank goodness, I rebalanced this afternoon... (It's true...)

As for my own portfolio, my XIRR for the period spanning 10/9/2007-09/16/2009 is now positive (+2.3%) and my long term portfolio return has crept back up to an average of 5.5% annual since 01/2000 (when we started investing). It's still under the 8% average I used in my planning, but it sure beats the negative average annual return I had just a few months ago.

[Cool_Sparrow]

Quote:

Originally Posted by FIREdreamer Thank goodness, I rebalanced this afternoon... (It's true...) As for my own portfolio, my XIRR for the period spanning 10/9/2007-09/16/2009 is now positive (+2.3%) and my long term portfolio return has crept back up to an average of 5.5% annual since 01/2000 (when we started investing). It's still under the 8% average I used in my planning, but it sure beats the negative average annual return I had just a few months ago.

FIREdreamer, How do you calculated XIRR for such odd dates (fractional years)? Vanguard does not allow me to do it. Is there an easier method than plugging all cash flows into Excel and than using XIRR function? There are far too many transactions for me to do that.

[FIREdreamer]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cool_Sparrow FIREdreamer, How do you calculated XIRR for such odd dates (fractional years)? Vanguard does not allow me to do it. Is there an easier method than plugging all cash flows into Excel and than using XIRR function? There are far too many transactions for me to do that.

Unfortunately, XIRR computation requires plugging in all cash flow transactions either in Excel or in a piece of software like Quicken. I am not aware of any alternative. When computing XIRR, it does not matter whether you are using whole years or fractional years, as long as you are looking at a period longer than one year. The XIRR function returns an average annual return. There is a simple formula that can help you convert the average annual return into a cumulative return which comes in handy when using fractional years.

[Gotadimple]

While W2R has just been counting the $$$, I will say in her place: Wheeee!!!

My investments are now worth more than I paid for them. It's taken an entire year, but I look very much like I did last September, before the big 'trip.'

-- Rita

[Meadbh]

Based on the euphoria index of the last page or so, the market will probably crash again next week. Keep a lid on it, everybody!

[Want2retire]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gotadimple While W2R has just been counting the $$$, I will say in her place: Wheeee!!! My investments are now worth more than I paid for them. It's taken an entire year, but I look very much like I did last September, before the big 'trip.' -- Rita

100.3% here, not counting my contributions.

It is not Dow 14,000+ again, but still my soon-to-be ER has been snatched from the jaws of the bear, it seems. (Well, I thought that sounded good but really I would have retired anyway.)

My planned SWR comes to a much higher amount than it would have in March, but that is just an artifact of the recovery. Not too worried about it, though. It was kind of "by guess and by golly" in the first place.

[Bestwifeever]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Want2retire 100.3% here, not counting my contributions. It is not Dow 14,000+ again, but still my soon-to-be ER has been snatched from the jaws of the bear, it seems. (Well, I thought that sounded good but really I would have retired anyway.) My planned SWR comes to a much higher amount than it would have in March, but that is just an artifact of the recovery. Not too worried about it, though. It was kind of "by guess and by golly" in the first place.

Would you actually increase the amount of $$ you withdraw each year, or is your planned SWR going to be the same amount and hence a smaller percentage number? I'm laughing thinking of W2R trying to spend extra $$ to stay at the same SWR percentage number--new Wii games, perhaps landscaping, 14,400 count designer bed linens, refinishing the basement of that house in Mo. you're dreaming of, or just a Starbucks latte three times a day!

[Want2retire]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bestwifeever Would you actually increase the amount of $$ you withdraw each year, or is your planned SWR going to be the same amount and hence a smaller percentage number? I'm laughing thinking of W2R trying to spend extra $$ to stay at the same SWR percentage number--new Wii games, perhaps landscaping, 14,400 count designer bed linens, refinishing the basement of that house in Mo. you're dreaming of, or just a Starbucks latte three times a day!

That is exactly what I was thinking/wondering about! I'm not sure I can spend more. I had planned an SWR around 3.5% when the market was down. That would be more like 2.5% now, which is so low as to be ridiculous IMO. So, I am looking at 3% which would still give me a whole lot more than I am spending right now.

I already buy any Wii game that appeals to me. I just got My Sims Kingdom for $20 and it is fun. Still, I think that is the only Wii game I have bought this year, since I like the ones I have.

You know - - I have ONE set of bed linens that was the cheapest Wally World could provide. You know the type - - it takes Arnold Schwarzeneggar to pull that last corner of the bottom sheet on. I could at least upgrade them and buy two sets of high end sheets.

No Starbucks latte for me, though! I was really disappointed last Christmas when I got a "Secret Santa" starbucks card and tried one for the first time in 5-10 years. I think their Vente has shrunk, and I think I can make better coffee at home. Hey there's an idea! I could buy an expresso machine. Oh but wait - - I am already drinking half decaf and expresso would send me through the roof.

I don't have a basement yet, but I'm sure there will be some renovating and landscape work going on once we get there.

[Zathras]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Meadbh Based on the euphoria index of the last page or so, the market will probably crash again next week. Keep a lid on it, everybody!

I would be surprised if we don't see a pull back soon.
However, as far as predictions of a crash, I think we need to wait for the S&P 740 prediction before we can make any more crash predictions.
As I recall, that one was a prediction of 740 sometime before the end of October

[FUEGO]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zathras I would be surprised if we don't see a pull back soon. However, as far as predictions of a crash, I think we need to wait for the S&P 740 prediction before we can make any more crash predictions. As I recall, that one was a prediction of 740 sometime before the end of October

I'm eagerly awaiting that individual's fourth prediction. Maybe it will be more accurate than the last three. Or maybe we will still see 740 by October's end. Who knows?

As far as gut instincts, I would figure we could see a correction at some point since we have been on an upward tear for a while. This thing can't go to the sky forever.